Watson’s Weekly 11-01-2019

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

THIS WEEK SAW US-CHINA TRADE TALKS, EUROZONE UNEMPLOYMENT JOY AND A RESOLUTE FRANCE...

  • The week kicked off with hopes for the first round of US-China trade talks since the G20 truce (Monday) and ended with some progress and the promise of more at a higher level (Thursday)
  • There was some good news for Europe as the number of jobless in the Eurozone fell below 8% (Thursday) for the first time in ten years
  • French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to push forth with his reform programme (Thursday) despite the continued protests of the gilets jaunes

THE TECH SECTOR SAW SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS...

  • Apple had some newsflow this week what with its decision to let iTunes users access content via non-Apple devices (Tuesday), its encouragement of trade-in to boost device sales (Wednesday) and the production cut to its iPhones (Thursday)
  • Samsung was one of Apple’s “chosen ones” for TV, but painted a downbeat picture for profits (Tuesday)
  • Tencent’s gaming capabilities continue to be hobbled (Friday) by the decision by Chinese authorities not to license their games as yet
  • SoftBank decided “only” to invest $2bn in WeWork rather than the expected $16bn (Tuesday) as the investments in their tech-focused Vision Fund took a hammering, prompting caution

THE CAR INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM GLOBAL SLOWDOWN...

  • Car sales in China fell for the first time in 20 years (Thursday) and UK car sales experienced their steepest fall in ten years (Tuesday)
  • Jaguar Land Rover and Ford both announced job losses (Friday) as JLR continues to suffer from being smaller than its competitors and overexposed to China and diesel-powered vehicles whilst Ford just decided to cut costs in its loss-making European operations
  • Fiat Chrysler got fined $800m (Friday) as part of the whole emissions scandal thing, although it admitted no wrongdoing as part of the deal. Criminal investigations are still ongoing, so it’s not all over yet
  • Elon Musk heralded the beginning of the construction of his China factory (Tuesday), saying that it would begin production within the year (yeah right – when has he hit his deadlines?!?). The pressure’s on as everyone and their dog is producing viable alternative electric vehicles

THIS WAS A BIG WEEK FOR RETAIL AS THE FESTIVE SEASON STATS ROLLED IN...

  • Tesco won the battle of the big grocers (Friday), although Aldi announced its best ever festive season (Tuesday) and Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Waitrose had rather more downbeat fortunes (Wednesday)
  • Non-food: saw strong performances for Joules (Wednesday) and Dunelm (Tuesday)
  • Restaurants and bars saw brisk trading with Mitchells & Butler being the overall winner (Friday)
  • Department stores saw mixed trading with Macy’s disappointing in the US (Friday), Selfridges and John Lewis doing well in the UK (Wednesday) – although the parent company of the latter was rather downbeat on its future prospects, mooting the possibility of zero bonuses (Friday) – and continued disastrous performance of Debenhams who had their chairman and chief exec ousted from the board (Friday)

BANTER

I have to admit that, this week, my favourite “alternative” stories were both from Thursday. Apologies but I found Newsreader mocked for wearing ‘p3nis jacket’ on TV – people ‘can’t unsee it’ (The Mirror, Robyn Darbyshire https://tinyurl.com/yddheyta) hilarious, but I thought I’d balance this out with the altogether much cuter Japanese snow monkeys find novel way to travel during winter (SoraNews24, Oona McGee https://tinyurl.com/yatmwn85). Ahhhhhh.

Watson’s Weekly 21-12-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

THIS WEEK SAW SOME INTEREST RATE ACTION, A TRUCE BETWEEN ITALY AND THE EU AND MORE BREXIT STUFF...

  • In the US: the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% increase in interest rates to a new range of 2.25-2.5% (Thursday), despite increasing pressure from President Trump not to raise them
  • In Europe: Italy and the EU came to a compromise about the contentious deficit bit of Italy’s proposed budget (Thursday) although I suspect this is just kicking the can down the road to avoid any mess before next year’s EU parliament elections. Italy will now have a budget deficit of 2.04% of GDP versus the proposed level of 2.4% and will achieve this by delaying some of its spending plans, including the introduction of a basic income programme
  • In the UK: Interest rates remained unchanged (Friday)at 0.75% as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to do so. Basically, the Bank of England will wait and see how the Brexit thing unfolds. If it is anything less than smooth, they probably won’t be raising rates for a while by the sounds of it. Re Brexit, we are left with May’s deal, no deal, Norway Plus/full customs union membership or a second referendum (Friday)
  • There was continued weakness for the oil price, which was mainly put down to booming shale oil production in the US (Wednesday). The Brent crude price has fallen by a third since it reached its highest level for four years in October and forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration show that production is going to continue to increase. It’s looking like the OPEC cuts won’t be enough to offset a potential oil glut going into next year

THERE WAS SOME DOWNBEAT NEWSFLOW FOR UK REAL ESTATE...

  • Overseas landlords are abandoning the UK, according to the latest stats from Hamptons International (Monday) on a combination of lower expectations of house price growth, a tougher tax regime and the impact of expected Brexit-fuelled sterling weakness on rental returns
  • The UK property market will stagnate in 2019 as house sales fall (Tuesday), according to the latest figures from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) due to Brexit uncertainty and affordability constraints. The RICS report observed that “House prices are now a greater multiple of earnings than at any point since records began. Such high house prices are shutting more and more people from accessing the market” and it is worth noting that there is still a shortage of supply and fewer forced sellers in the market meaning that “many vendors will be under no real pressure to sell, meaning they can choose to avoid listing their property at a time when the market is weakening”

THE HEADLINES CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY RETAIL...

  • There was a lot of doom and gloom around for the retailer naysayers what with the latest forecasts by retail analysis firm Springboard saying that footfall is expected to drop by 3% this week (Monday) as people are reining back on spending this Christmas both online and offline. Asos had a shocker (Tuesday) as it bore the brunt of a disastrous November. Given that Asos is an online-only retailer investors took its travails to be a sign that offline weakness is leaching into online retailers. Having said that, some believe that this sales shocker was more to do with a failed Black Friday campaign, with the implication being that it could be a one-off and Asos-specific issue rather than something more widespread
  • On the positive side of things, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that total retail sales volumes were up by 3.8% versus November last year (Friday) – which was way above forecasts with rising pay, falling inflation and robust consumer confidence (presumably in personal finances rather than anything else) thought to be behind the unexpected surprise. There are still some strong performances from some bar/restaurant operators (Monday), with Loungers even eyeing a stock market flotation (Friday). Even John Lewis surprised on the upside this week (Wednesday)

THIS WEEK WAS A BUSY ONE FOR M&A AS WELL...

  • The world’s #1 brewer AB In Bev is getting together with Canadian marijuana company Tilray to research cannabis-infused drinks (Thursday). The two companies will invest $50m each in researching how to get such drinks to market, taking into account factors like flavouring and the length of the high. I think this is going to be an AREA with BIG potential
  • Marlboro-maker Altria decided to buy hefty stake in Juul for a hefty sum (Thursday)
  • GSK did a deal with Pfizer that will split its business into two (Thursday) with a view to demerging its consumer health business within the next three years
  • South Africa’s Naspers decided to invest $660m into Indian food-delivery company Swiggy (Friday) in a super-hot market

BANTER

Given that this is the last Watson’s Daily before 2019 (and the nearest one to Christmas), I thought I’d leave you with an unashamedly festive collection of my favourite “alternative” stories for this week. Making a dog’s dinner of it! Hilarious snaps show playful pooches pulling some VERY funny faces as they try to catch flying treats in new calendar snaps (Daily Mail, Dianne Apen-Sadler https://tinyurl.com/y7w7uf7v) and People can’t get enough of this family’s hilarious “real life” Christmas cards (bestlifeonline.com, Diana Bruk https://tinyurl.com/y9ktmssp) made me laugh a lot and I think that Mouth-watering photos show what different holiday feasts look like around the world (Insider, Rachel Askinasi https://tinyurl.com/y72k2uoc) is quite educational!

I hope you have a brilliant Christmas and a fantastic New Year! See you again on January 7th for Watson’s Daily. The first edition of Watson’s Weekly will be on January 11th.

Watson’s Weekly 14-12-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

THIS WEEK SAW SOME BIG DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPE AS WELL AS US-CHINA RELATIONS...

  • In the UK: It all kicked off with Theresa May canning the Commons vote on Brexit (Tuesday), then she survived a vote of no confidence, following which she jetted off to Europe to see whether she could get a better deal (unlikely)
  • In France: France’s central bank cut growth forecasts (Tuesday) to take into account the impact of the gilets jaunes protests and President Macron pledged tax cuts and a rise in the minimum wage (Tuesday) to placate his critics
  • In Italy: the government made conciliatory noises about altering its budget plans (Thursday) in order to coincide with EU guidelines, but the proposals are short on detail and don’t go far enough (Friday)
  • Re US-China trade talks: China seemed to show goodwill by cutting import taxes on American vehicles (Wednesday) and the market reacted positively (Thursday)

THERE WAS A LOT OF NEWS ON THE RETAIL ENVIRONMENT AND THE CONSUMER...

  • Footfall at UK retailers is expected to drop this Christmas period (Monday) and the grocery market is slowing down (Wednesday). Sports Direct’s Mike Ashley painted a very stark picture of the current retail environment (Friday) and this seems to be having a negative impact on retail property values generally (Wednesday). On the other hand, wages rose by their fastest pace in a decade (Wednesday)
  • In terms of the retailers themselves, Superdry’s profit warning put more pressure on management (Thursday) as co-founder Julian Dunkerton makes no bones about wanting to return to sort the mess out. Pizza Express got downgraded by Moody’s (Monday) but then, on the other hand, tenpin bowling chain Hollywood Bowl unveiled strong figures (Monday), showing that consumers are still spending money out there somewhere!

THERE WERE SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS FOR CARS...

  • Hyundai committed to fuel cell cars (Wednesday)
  • China car sales had their steepest monthly fall in 6 years (Wednesday). China is the world’s biggest car market and the fact that it is heading for its first annual decline in sales for 30 years is potentially a worrying sign
  • The EU reversed a decision that relaxed diesel emissions two years ago (Friday), which means that car manufacturers will face more onerous requirements to produce cleaner vehicles. More potential expense following compliance with WLTP

THERE WAS ALSO A MIXED PICTURE FOR OUTSOURCERS...

  • …what with fears that Interserve was going to become the next Carillion (Tuesday)
  • …but then again Serco knocked it out of the park on strong results (Friday), so it’s not all disaster!

BANTER

I must be going soft, but here was my favourite story of the week: Irish dancing baby could give Michael Flatley a run for his money (The Mirror, Lisa Trainer https://tinyurl.com/y7fds5nx).

Have a great weekend!

Watson’s Weekly 07-12-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

THERE WERE SOME JUICY MACRO/POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEK...

  • In France, President Macron had to address the problem of his proposed fuel tax rises – which was the root problem of the weekend riots in Paris – as he pondered the aftermath (Monday) which led to a delay in the proposed rollout (Wednesday) that then turned into a bigger climbdown (Thursday). This is going to make further tricky reforms even harder to implement now the French people have successfully found his pain threshold
  • OPEC started its meetings in Vienna this Thursday to discuss the oil price and whether to cut production to stem its slide. Although many observers had assumed that a production cut was pretty much a done deal, it doesn’t quite sound like that (Friday) as OPEC members are trying to balance their own interests with those of Trump, who continued to push for keeping production levels unchanged. Mind you, given that the US is now the world’s biggest oil producer it seems that its interests in keeping a reasonably buoyant oil price will soon outweigh the preference for lower oil prices (Monday)
  • The week started with renewed hopes for US-China trade relations as they agreed a 90-day truce (Monday) but the markets wobbled on Trump saying he was a tariffs man (Wednesday) before they wobbled again on Chinese anger at the US’s actions re arresting Huawei’s CFO (Friday)

THERE WERE SOME IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEK FOR DIFFERERENT VEHICLES...

  • The week started with some positive news about China reducing and/or doing away with the 40% car import tariffs (Monday), although there were subsequent wobbles about how robust this would be (Wednesday – because Trump tweeted that he was a “tariff man” and Friday – because of Chinese anger at the arrest of Huawei’s CFO)
  • Alphabet’s Waymo announced a “driverless” taxi service called Waymo One in Arizona that had paying passengers (Thursday). It’s very restricted at the moment both in terms of the passengers and actual geographical area, but it’s a step in the right direction for the development of driverless cars.
  • There was another exciting development this time in the world of driverless electric trucks as Swedish autonomous vehicle start-up Einride and German logistics group DB Schenker  announced their T-pod truck (Monday) that would shortly be carrying freight on public roads. A remote operator can control up to ten trucks at once from a hundred miles away to take over when needed. Currently, the T-Pod is only allowed on 100 miles of public road and can only go for six miles but again, like the Waymo thing above, it’s a step in the right direction
  • The week ended on a cautionary note as a study by PA Consulting showed that, if things carry on the way they are now, 8 out of 13 of Europe’s major car companies could face fines of up to 20% of their profits (Friday) because they would fail to hit new limits on carbon dioxide emissions.

UK RETAIL GOT A BIT OF A KICKING THIS WEEK (SURPRISE! SURPRISE!)...

  • Department store spending fell for the 13th consecutive month (Wednesday) according to the latest Barclaycard figures. This will presumably give Sports Direct’s Mike Ashley an excuse (if he ever needed one) to shut down more House of Fraser stores
  • Ted Baker suffered PR problems due to employees rebelling against a culture of “forced hugging” (Tuesday), so the company got the lawyers in to investigate
  • Thomas Cook had a right rollercoaster of a ride as concerns increased about its debt (Tuesday, Wednesday) but were then batted away (Thursday)
  • Travis Perkins decided to mull over a potential sale of its Wickes DIY business (Wednesday) so that it can focus more on the more profitable trade business

THERE WAS ALSO A LOT OF HOO-HA OVER HUAWEI...

  • There was a ton of drama this week because the CFO (and daughter of the founder) of Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei was arrested (Thursday) as part of a criminal investigation related to alleged attempts by Huawei to sell US-made equipment to Iran, flouting sanctions against the country. China wasn’t best pleased (Friday) and so markets went weaker (Friday)

BANTER

My favourite stories this week were Bus driver can lick his own forehead with his tongue in unusual trick (The Mirror, Laura Forsyth https://tinyurl.com/ya43nwyz) and Sumo wrestler goes viral with video of him signing autographs (Nextshark, Carl Samson https://tinyurl.com/y72swrn4), although I think the sumo wrestler just edges it for me!

I hope you have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 30-11-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

BITCOIN HAD AN EVENTFUL WEEK...

  • Bitcoin started the week licking its wounds after its worst week of trading in five years last week (Monday), but had a decent rebound (Thursday) on reports that the Nasdaq is going to start trading bitcoin derivatives, thus giving the cryptocurrency more legitimacy

AUTOMOBILE MAKERS GENERALLY HAD A ROUGH WEEK...

  • …what with European carmaker share prices falling on the back of Trump threats (Wednesday) of tariff increases. The official line from the White House is that no additional levies will be imposed while it is conducting negotiations with the EU and Japan, but Trump has often threatened a tax on foreign car imports. Currently, US cars shipped to the EU face way higher taxes than European cars being shipped to the US
  • GM announced factory closures and the culling of 14,700 jobs (Tuesday) as part of company efforts to futureproof itself against expected changes in ownership trends (fewer people will own their cars) and vehicle electrification. Trump didn’t like this, but I’m not sure whether he can do much about it
  • Tesla had a shocker as its sales in China fell by 70% last month (Wednesday). Tesla imports all the cars it sells in China and the government imposed a hefty 40% tax on car imports coming from the US in response to Trump’s tariffs going the other way. No wonder it recently lowered its prices on the Model S and Model X to take the hit!

IT WAS A MIXED WEEK (AS ALWAYS THESE DAYS!) FOR RETAIL...

  • The week kicked off with disappointing early data from Black Friday for the UK high street (Monday), but John Lewis turned out to be a winner (Wednesday) as it clocked up its biggest week ever as shoppers bagged deals on gadgets, beauty products, clothing and beds
  • Ikea reported a hefty 40% fall in profits (Thursday) due to costs related to changing its business model from being a big out-of-town retailer to one with a better online and town centre presence. Profits are expected to be depressed for the next three years as the meatball and furniture retailer funds this transition from its own pocket rather than hiking prices and making its customers pay
  • The Restaurant Group breathed a sigh of relief as the Wagamama acquisition was approved (Thursday), although 40% of investors voted against it mainly because they thought it was too expensive and don’t like the way the acquisition is going to be funded (a deeply discounted rights issue)
  • A takeover bid for shopping centre landlord Intu fell though, sending shares down by 41% (Friday) as investors are getting increasingly nervous about the fragile nature of the UK high street at the moment. I suspect we’ll see more retailers go to the wall and falling rents

...AND THERE WERE SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS IN MEDIA...

  • Media giant WPP announced that it was merging two of its companies to form Wunderman Thompson (Tuesday) as the world of advertising reacts to the continued success of Facebook and Google and digital advertising. Digital is now accounts for around 60% of all advertising investment and all net UK advertising growth (Thursday)
  • Netflix announced that it is going to increase the amount of European shows it produces by a third next year (Thursday) as it continues to put pressure on traditional broadcasters. AT&T announced plans to capitalise on its acquisition of Time Warner by offering three versions of its new streaming video service (Friday) from the fourth quarter of 2019 that will have original movies and TV series from Warner Bros, Turner and HBO. WarnerMedia (as TimeWarner is now known) plans an entry-level service focusing on movies, a second tier with original programming and more films and a third tier with all of the above plus classic films, comedy and children’s programming. The world of streaming continues to evolve!

BANTER

I have to say that I am still reeling from watching the video in Hang glider clings on for his life after pilot fails to attach safety harness (Sky News, https://tinyurl.com/y7c4b5kx). If you haven’t seen this yet, be prepared to be shocked! After things calmed down, the guy that cheated death said  “I will go hang gliding again as I did not enjoy my first flight”. ?!?

I hope you have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 23-11-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

SO THE TECH ROUT CONTINUED THIS WEEK...

  • Apple – and anyone associated with it – suffered this week from fears of peak iPhone (Monday). Given that Apple no longer gives details of unit sales, investors will focus on its suppliers for some kind of steer – but it’s not looking good. There has been talk of disappointing sales of new models (Tuesday) and its Taiwanese mega-iPhone-assembler Foxconn announced that it would cut billions in costs and shed 10% of its non-technical workforce (Thursday)
  • Meanwhile, over in China, Tencent signed an Asia distribution deal with Singaporean company Sea (Tuesday), which should go some way to making up for the troubles it is having in China due to the government there clamping down on gaming companies by not issuing commercial licences. Mind you, it turns out that another income stream is coming in very handy at the moment as it turns out that Tencent just made a third of its profits in investments (Friday)!

AUTOMOBILE MAKERS ALSO HAD AN EVENTFUL WEEK...

  • …what with Renault-Nissan’s Carlos Ghosn getting arrested (Tuesday) and then dumped by the Nissan board (Friday) for allegedly using company cash to fund a lavish lifestyle
  • Tesla decided to take the tariff hit in China (Friday) instead of passing it on to customers in order to stay relevant in a market that expected to take off in electric vehicles and cut prices of its cars there
  • Catalytic converter company Johnson Matthey saw a big share price hike (Thursday) as it benefitted from stronger orders due to tightening emissions regulations

THERE WERE SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS IN RETAIL LEADING INTO BLACK FRIDAY...

  • Gap announced that it was going to cut weaker stores (Wednesday). Fears of rising wages (because of a tight labour market), narrower margins (in an attempt to stay competitive with e-tailers such as Amazon) and higher freight costs are hitting the retail sector as a whole in the US and there are worries that, potentially, rising inventories could be a precursor to retailers having to sell off too much stock at a discount in the coming months
  • Ikea announced that it was going to cut staff numbers as it continues to evolve its format (Thursday). However it did say that a rollout of new smaller-format stores over the next two years will actually result in more jobs being created net-net
  • There’s scepticism about UK “offline” retailer performance for Black Friday (Monday) as it is expected to benefit e-tailers more
  • Kingfisher – owner of B&Q plus others – announced that it is pulling out of non-core markets (Thursday) and will concentrate on turning around its French business while improving in the UK via B&Q and the more successful Screwfix

BANTER

I must confess that Darts players let rip as they accuse each other of f@rting during match (Sky News, Ajay Nair https://tinyurl.com/ybqmatqv) made me laugh the most and Body part-shocking device is here to stop Japan from nodding off at the wheel, work or school (SoraNews24, Katy Kelly, https://tinyurl.com/ybx7742s) made me think “WTF” the most, so I think I’ll leave you with something that frustrated me the most in There’s a star hidden among over 150 Christmas trees in this brain teaser – can you spot it? (Insider, Talia Lakritz https://tinyurl.com/ycu9nkch)

I hope you have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 09-11-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

THERE WERE SOME MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS ON THE MACRO FRONT THIS WEEK...

  • …what with the impact of the midterm elections (Thursdaywhich could mean a bumpier time for him in the second half of his term
  • France and Turkey refused to comply with US sanctions on Iran (Wednesdayalthough everyone else has remained quiet on that front
  • The oil price dipped into bear territory (Fridayahead of the OPEC meeting this weekend as oil inventories have been trending higher in the last few weeks
  • Europe couldn’t decide on a digital tax (Wednesday) as Denmark, Sweden and Ireland chickened out, given the importance of Big Tech to their respective economies

...AND THERE WAS A LOT OF CHAT ABOUT TRADE WAR EFFECTS...

  • …with US soybean farmers getting annoyed with the side-effects of Trump’s tariffs (Tuesday) as there have been both winners and losers (Monday) in the trade spat so far with the Chinese
  • China’s exports proved to be surprisingly robust (Friday) although Alibaba cut its full-year revenue forecasts (Monday)
  • Other Asian countries could stand to benefit from the trade war as supply chains are realigned (Tuesday) with tech companies in Vietnam and Malaysia and Thai auto parts makers being amongst those who could benefit

THERE WERE ALSO SOME BITS ON THE STATE OF THE UK CONSUMER...

  • Average wages are rising (Thursday) putting pressure on company profits
  • Lidl put pressure on its supermarket competitors by raising wages (Tuesday)
  • …and retail sales were up (Tuesday) although the pace appears to be slowing down

RETAILERS CONTINUE HAVE A MIXED TIME OF THINGS...

  • Marks and Spencer continue to disappoint (Thursday) although they are currently engaged in their latest turnaround plan
  • Mulberry saw its losses widen (Thursday) as it experienced the aftershock of House of Fraser’s collapse, weaker UK demand and lower footfall
  • It’s not just chain restaurants that are suffering – independent London restaurants are closing at a record rate (Thursday) as consumers are bombarded with too much choice
  • Sainsbury’s continued to harp on about the merits of a merger with Asda (Friday) and Halfords unveiled disappointing profits (Friday) although I think its turnaround plan sounds reasonable

BANTER

I’m sorry – I admit it. I found this to be the thing that made me laugh the most this week: Teacher accidentally plays p0rn to entire class full of students (Metro, Harley Tamplin https://tinyurl.com/yakv2u6o). Ouch.

I hope you have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 02-11-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

SO THERE WAS A LOT GOING ON THIS WEEK ON THE MACRO FRONT...

  • …as Angela Merkel initially scraped though a regional election (Monday) only to resign her leadership of her party, the CDU (Tuesday). She has said in the past that being the leader of the CDU and the chancellor go hand-in-hand, so some observers think her days are numbered (well she did add that she would exit politics completely in 2021).
  • Brazil got a new president (Monday) who has definitely got his work cut out for him (Tuesday) as he tries to drag his country out of its worst ever recession after years of corruption
  • We had our last Budget before Brexit (Tuesday) where the giveaways could still be severely dented if we fail to negotiate a clean break with the EU

...AND THE WEEK SAW A DECENT AMOUNT OF IPO ACTION...

  • …what with IBM buying Red Hat for $33bn (Monday) to boost its cloud computing power and, on a smaller scale…
  • WH Smith bought America’s biggest airport electronics retailer InMotion (Wednesday), which will double the size of its international business
  • Sports Direct bought Evans Cycles (Wednesday), and immediately said that half the stores will have to close in order for the chain to survive
  • The Restaurant Group made a successful bid for Wagamama (Wednesday) and so now “Japanese” cuisine will be in the same stable as Frankie & Benny’s, Garfunkel’s and Chiquito.

IT WAS ALSO A BIG WEEK FOR TECH...

  • …as Apple announced decent results but disappointing handset sales (Friday)
  • Samsung announced record profits (Thursday) but predicted a slowdown
  • Facebook admitted that user growth rate was slowing (Wednesday) and
  • Spotify said that it was facing difficulties in hiring enough people (Friday) to realise its ambitions. The company is also about to enter into contract negotiations with record companies.

MEANWHILE, IN RETAIL AND ON THE HIGH STREET...

  • The outlook continues to be gloomy on the UK high street, heading into Brexit (Wednesday)
  • Mothercare announced that it was going to axe 200 jobs at its HQ (Thursday)
  • On a positive note, Next announced some solid figures (Thursday) helped by a strong online performance – although there’s a new threat from Amazon in terms of clothing sales (Wednesday)
  • Starbucks did OK in terms of sales (Friday) but it’s finding it hard to attract new customers
  • Patisserie Valerie lives to fight another day (Friday) after three weeks in limbo

BANTER

Given that this was Halloween week, I thought I’d leave you with my favourite scary banter. There were the scary toilets in There’s a viral Facebook page that just posts pictures of scary toilets (msn.com, Jacob Shamsian https://tinyurl.com/y9lg6wfo), the creepy shoes in Fashion label launches ‘human skin boots’ in time for Halloween (The Week, Gabriel Power https://tinyurl.com/yamw67mo) and – scariest of all – there was this: Woman’s flesh-coloured leggings cause embarrassing optical illusion – and it looks indecent (The Mirror, Nicola Oakley https://tinyurl.com/ydbhq7c5).

I hope you have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 26-10-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily. *** NB there were only THREE editions of Watson’s Daily this week instead of the usual FIVE. It’ll be back to normal next week! ***

SO IT WAS A TUMULTUOUS WEEK FOR EUROPE...

  • …as the EU rejected Italy’s budget (Wednesday) which annoyed Italy (Thursday) and Eurozone growth fell to new lows (Thursday). Germany’s Chancellor Merkel is also facing serious potential problems (Thursday) in the upcoming Hesse regional election

...AND THE UK HIGH STREET CONTINUED TO SUFFER...

  • …what with Patisserie Valerie (Thursday), GBK (Thursday) and Debenhams (Thursday, Friday) all facing problems with a new investigation, a CVA, and the company’s biggest ever loss respectively.

MEANWHILE, THERE WERE SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR...

OTHER THAN THAT...

  • WPP had a shocker (Friday) as it continues to ponder its survival in a world increasingly dominated by Google and Facebook.
  • Also, Dyson created a stir by announcing a new electric car factory in Singapore (Wednesday), but given the massive tax incentive and proximity to the key Chinese market, you can’t blame Sir James for going abroad for this crucial venture. It is, however, somewhat ironic as he trumpeted the virtues of British manufacturing as a prominent Brexiteer.

BANTER

The banter that I enjoyed the most this week was Hundreds of waiters try not to spill any drinks in street race (Metro, Jen Mills https://tinyurl.com/ycz2wny3), which is a sort of egg-and-spoon race for adults and then there was the video of a group of guys trying to recreate the Haribo TV advert in https://tinyurl.com/yazu2xla

I hope you have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 19-10-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE DAY IN BRACKETS REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

SO ANOTHER ACTION-PACKED WEEK GOES BY IN MACROECONOMICS...

  • A Hollywood-worthy scandal gathered pace this week as Saudi Arabia was accused of murdering a journalist dissident at its consulate in Isambul (Monday), which was vehemently denied by the Saudis and then followed by various threats and repercussions from both sides (Tuesday, Wednesday). The drama is ongoing.
  • China unveiled slowing growth (Friday) but officials tried to calm any market panic. China’s still on track for its year-end 6.5% GDP growth target, though.
  • In Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron had a Cabinet reshuffle (Wednesday) after a series of senior resignations as he pressed the refresh button ahead of more attempts at reform. Germany’s Angela Merkel got a buffeting in the Bavarian elections (Monday), which isn’t ideal from her point of view but could actually weaken the voices of detractors in the weak coalition
  • And then in the UK, we saw UK wages rise (Wednesday), inflation fall (Thursday) and weaker retail sales (Friday)
  • There was also a very interesting development for cryptocurrencies this week as Fidelity Investments announced that it will store and trade Bitcoin and Ether (Tuesday) for hedge funds and other professional investors in the new Fidelity Digital Asset Services business

THE RETAIL SECTOR CONTINUES TO BE A MIXED BAG...

  • US retailer Sears filed for bankruptcy protection (Monday) after plans to rescue it fell flat, online clothing retailer Asos unveiled strong results (Thursday) and New Look announced that it was withdrawing from China (Friday)

UK REAL ESTATE HAS SEEN BETTER DAYS...

  • UK house prices continue to weaken (Thursday) and Crest Nicholson had its third profits warning  in two years (Thursday)

MEANWHILE, AIRLINES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ATLANTIC HAVE CONSTRASTING FORTUNES...

  • On the one hand, you have US airlines announcing strong results (Thursday) as increased numbers of business class passengers offset higher jet fuel costs and then, on the other, Cypriot airline Cobalt Air ceases operations (Friday) and UK regional carrier Flybe has a profit warning (Thursday).

IN INDIVIDUAL COMPANY NEWS, NETFLIX AND UBER HAD SOME INTERESTING NEWS...

  • Netflix came out with stronger-than-expected subscriber numbers (Wednesday) whilst Uber identified two new business areas – in virtual restaurants (Monday) and catering temping (Friday). Business diversification for Uber could be the key to making its proposed flotation next year more attractive.

BANTER

My favourite bits of banter this week could be combined to provide a relaxing interlude for you this weekend. You could admire the artistry of the coins in You need to check out this really cool coin that has an amazing hidden feature (Mashable, Xavier Piedra https://tinyurl.com/y78snhpf) whilst listening to the music in Japanese netizen kills time by learning to play a hit J-pop song on…calculators (SoraNews24, Dale Roll https://tinyurl.com/y9mxtvhf) and munching on a something from this place: Toastie restaurant with completely bonkers fillings to open in UK – would you try any of them? (The Mirror, Robyn Darbyshire https://tinyurl.com/y7a5sx8y)

I hope you have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 12-10-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

The day in brackets refers to the edition where the story appeared. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

SO THE TURKEY/US THING EDGES CLOSER TO RESOLUTION AND WORLD MARKETS TAKE A BATH...

  • It seems that Turkey is on the brink of calming the dispute it has with the US (Friday) as it looks like it will relent and let the American pastor at the centre of disputed allegations of espionage go home. Trump slapped sanctions on Turkey to get him back and it looks like they worked (plus Turkey needs an ally right now, so needs to play nice). If Andrew Brunson is allowed to go home (deals like this have fallen through at the eleventh hour in the past), this could really ease pressures on the Turkish economy – especially if Trump lifts sanctions.
  • Italy instigated investor nervousness as it railed against the EU (Tuesday) as its proposed budget is likely to get blocked by the EU because it will widen the budget deficit. The EU could look bad whatever it does here – it will look weak if it lets it through, effectively giving Italy a “free pass” and if it doesn’t, the populist right-wing Eurosceptic government will have a field day. Presumably both sides will have to find middle ground.
  • Markets took a bath this week (Friday) as investor concerns about an over-heated tech sector, trade war tensions, rising inflation and the prospect of five more US interest rate rises prompted a sell-off.

THERE WERE SOME INTERESTING NEW TECH BITS RELEASED THIS WEEK...

  • Facebook unveiled a new gadget this week (Tuesday) in an attempt to enmesh itself even more in our daily lives. The tablet with a clever camera and smart speaker basically brings together functions of existing devices and is intended to help us keep in touch with friends and family. There was a sense of deja vu as Google unveiled a similar device (Wednesday) which has less functionality (no camera) in the belief that privacy conscious users would be tempted to splurge. Which was ironic, because it admitted to a massive data breach (Tuesday)
  • Sony committed to a console to replace the PS4 (Tuesday), thus allaying fears that consoles as a concept are going to become extinct in the near-ish future.

FAST FOOD HAD A BIT OF A MIXED WEEK THIS WEEK...

  • The week kicked off with Jollibee vowing to take on KFC (Monday) as it opened the first of 25 outlets slated for the UK over the next five years.
  • Greggs put in a solid performance in the third quarter (Wednesday), powered by drinks and pizza (aren’t we all?) but then fellow baker Patisserie Valerie had its shares suspended (Thursday) after news of a financial black hole in its accounts. Things are not looking good for its survival as things stand and the future of its 2,500 staff and 206 shops hang in the balance (Friday).

...AND RETAILERS HAD SOME MORE UPS AND DOWNS...

  • American retailer Sears gets closer to bankruptcy (Thursday) as the chance of a bailout recedes
  • Meanwhile, on the UK high street, TK Maxx announces strong sales figures and increasing market share (Wednesday), French Connection put itself up for sale (Monday) – causing its share price to bounce strongly (Tuesday) – and Coast got a lifeline from sister company Karen Millen (Friday).

BANTER

There was some quite entertaining banter this week, I thought. A new exciting (and no doubt therapeutic) pastime was highlighted in Axe throwing takes aim at sunny Los Angeles (Reuters, Rory Carrol https://tinyurl.com/y7eou2weand then there was that new innovation in pizza takeaway technology in Clever pizza box turns into a food tray so you can scoff slices in bed (The Mirror, Robyn Darbyshire https://tinyurl.com/ybfjhbd5).

However, the thing that made me laugh the most this week was this: Thomas Cook plane turns X-rated when the door is open thanks to awkward design flaw (The Mirror, Nicola Oakley https://tinyurl.com/yb93ycz5).

AND ON THAT BOMBSHELL, I hope you have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 05-10-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

The day in brackets refers to the edition where the story appeared. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

SO TRUMP MADE SOME PROGRESS AND COMMODITIES PRICES GOT TOPPY THIS WEEK...

  • Trump managed to settle his neighbourly squabble to announce the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (Tuesdayaka “Nafta 2.0” and move forward with trade negotiations. It looks like Trump will use this agreement as a template for negotiations with other countries (Friday).
  • Things got a bit tricky in Europe as Macron suffered from yet another senior resignation (Thursday) which will make pushing through his reform agenda slightly more difficult. Clearly he needs to stem this flow as things could go sour for the Eurozone’s second biggest economy.
  • In commodities, continued oil price strength has been making life difficult for emerging markets (Friday) and it seems that demand from the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative is going to push copper prices up for the foreseeable (Thursday)

SOME MUCH-HYPED IPOs DISAPPOINTED ON THEIR MARKET DEBUT...

  • Aston Martin’s IPO backfired on debut (Thursday) as investors balked at what turned out to be a rather ambitious valuation. IPOs are meant to get fired up at least on their first day, but the maker of James Bond’s car of choice left everyone shaken, not stirred (sorry, but I just couldn’t resist that).
  • Funding Circle’s IPO also disappointed (Thursday), which is a pain for the London Stock Exchange as it doesn’t want to nurture a reputation for being a “loser” exchange. It was rather hoping for a stellar performance to attract other fintech companies to the party, but this has put a spanner in the works for the moment.

RETAILER NEWS WAS MIXED AGAIN THIS WEEK...

  • Amazon caused a bit of a stir this week by increasing wages (Wednesday). Chief exec Bezos spun it in a way to make the company look good but in reality I think it’s just responding to recent criticism and – more importantly – it’s probably conscious that labour markets are very tight in the UK and US at the moment and wants to hang on to/attract employees. The other great thing for Amazon is that it happens to put pressure on other employers to increase their wages as well!
  • In supermarkets, Aldi reported solid results (Tuesday) in contrast to Tesco, which was hit by poor performance overseas (Thursday)
  • Ted Baker had a rare hiccup (Friday) as it joined the high street throng complaining that sales were affected by the extreme weather we’ve had so far this year but online sales were still very strong

...AND THAT ELON MUSK BLOKE STIRRED THINGS UP. AGAIN...

  • This was a bit of a white-knuckle week for Tesla as Elon Musk got his wrists slapped by the SEC (Mondayfor sending that Tweet about him having the finance in place to take Tesla private when he didn’t. As part of the deal, he didn’t have to admit responsibility but the SEC is now forcing him to split his currently dual role of Chairman and CEO. The shares recovered (Tuesday) but appointing a new chairman who can rein in the increasingly erratic Elon Musk is imperative given that Elon Musk took yet again to Twitter in order to vent (Friday).

BANTER

I would say that this week’s banter got better as the week progressed but I liked Mum reveals her unique way of cooking a full English breakfast – and it’s blowing people’s minds (The Mirror, Caitlin O’Sullivan and Courtney Pochin https://tinyurl.com/ycvoz2pb) and First ever Pringles instant cup ramen noodles are coming to Japan (SoraNews24, Oona McGee https://tinyurl.com/ybln78ba) on the food side of things.

On the other hand, I though that Manchester Students’ Union bans clapping and says jazz hands should be used instead (Metro, Richard Hartley-Parkinson https://tinyurl.com/y7s68n3g) and Putin’s 2019 calendar has him hugging a puppy and the obligatory shirtless shot (Metro, Martine Berg Olsen https://tinyurl.com/y8djr978) were pretty impressive on the weirdness front!

Have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 28-09-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

The day in brackets refers to the edition where the story appeared. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

SO THERE WAS A LOT OF MACRO MADNESS AND MAYHEM THIS WEEK...

  • US interest rates went up by 0.25% to a range of 2% to 2.25%(Thursday), with one more increase likely before year end to be followed up by more next year. This will put even more pressure on Argentina who lost the head of their central bank (Wednesday), although his replacement may smooth the way for an IMF bailout (Thursday). Meanwhile, in Europe, the Swedish PM lost a vote of confidence (Wednesday) that will put his government in disarray and then there was the news that Poland managed to graduate from an “emerging” market to a “developed” market (Tuesday) – the first to do so for ten years.

THERE WAS ALSO A RIGHT OLD FRENZY FOR IPOs...

  • The week started off with Comcast winning in the race to buy Sky (Monday), then it got a bit of flak from investors for paying a high price (Tuesday) and moved on to win control (Thursday) signalling the end of the Rupert Murdoch era. The acquisition is an important strategic move for Comcast as it gives them a proper beach head in Europe – something that has eluded many US companies of this ilk.
  • Then there were other acquisitions that came to light such as Sirius XM (a US satellite radio group) buying Pandora (a streamer – Tuesday) to strengthen their collective offering against the likes of Apple and Spotify and Michael Kors buying Versace (Tuesday)
  • There were rumours of consolidation between French retailers Casino and Carrefour (Tuesday) which Carrefour vehemently denied and it turns out that Amazon has made a couple of approaches to Deliveroo (Tuesday), the company that is currently in early stage talks with Uber.

IT'S ALSO BEEN A MIXED WEEK FOR RETAILERS...

  • American retailer Sears started the week with a financial restructuring proposal to avoid bankruptcy (Tuesday) but continued to run into scepticism (Thursday)
  • UK bike retailer Halfords announced a profit warning (Friday) despite also being one of the interested parties in the running to buy another troubled UK bike retailer, Evans (Thursday)
  • On the positive side, some clothing retailers unveiled solid results with H&M (Friday), Next (Wednesday) and Boohoo (Thursday) putting in a strong showing. Proof, as if any were needed, that it IS possible to get it right on the high street (and online, of course!).

...AND THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF INTERESTING TALKING POINTS...

  • There was a big contrast in fortunes for travel agents as Tui announced strong results (Friday) which contrasted sharply with Thomas Cook’s profit warning (Tuesday). This appeared to be broadly down to Tui’s heavier exposure to the higher-margin cruise ship business and Thomas Cook’s exposure to the late bookings market
  • ..and then there was Elon Musk getting sued by the SEC (Friday) for sending that Tweet saying that he’d found the backers to take his company private.

BANTER

I must admit that Man named Anus changes Facebook profile after being butt of too many jokes (Metro, Zoe Drewett https://tinyurl.com/y9wfwlge) made me laugh, but then this was also a week for talented animals such as ‘World’s first’ ice skating dog looks like he’s loving life after almost being put down (The Mirror, Ailbhe MacMahon & Neil Murphy https://tinyurl.com/ybeudx7x) and Seal jumps out of the sea and slaps innocent man in the face with an octopus (Metro, Rob Waugh https://tinyurl.com/yda7huq4).

Have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 21-09-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

The day in brackets refers to the edition where the story appeared. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

IT WAS ANOTHER EVENTFUL WEEK ON THE MACRO FRONT...

  • Trump kicked off the week with threats of $200bn in extra tariffs (Monday), although he let Apple off (Tuesday) despite virtually all of their gadgetry being made in China. China retaliated (Wednesday) and it now looks like it will be cutting tariffs to non-US countries (Friday) although we don’t know the details yet. Alibaba founder Jack Ma doesn’t like what he’s seeing and said that Alibaba would not follow through on its promise to create one million American jobs (Thursday) because of the recent deterioration in US-China relations.

THERE WAS ALSO A LOT OF VEHICLE-RELATED NEWS THIS WEEK...

  • There was talk of the DoJ opening a criminal investigation into Tesla (Wednesday) re that whole I’m-taking-my-company-private thing and the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF) sovereign wealth fund put $1bn into Tesla rival Lucid Motors (Tuesday) although it does sound some way behind Tesla (Wednesday).
  • Ferrari made a big fanfare about the electrification of its future models (Wednesday) but stopped short of making anything that was purely electric. Meanwhile, Aston Martin is aiming for a top end valuation (Friday) for its forthcoming Initial Public Offering. Meanwhile, Jaguar Land Rover had to go to a three-day week (Tuesday) due to sluggish sales.
  • Korea’s Hyundai Motor announced plans to produce the world’s first commercially available hydrogen powered truck (Friday) next year. It said it would begin the rollout of 1,000 fuel cell trucks in Switzerland as part of a five-year agreement with Swiss hydrogen company H2 energy. Supporters of this technology believe that it is better suited to heavy vehicles travelling long distances versus 100% electric vehicles that face shorter ranges, long refuelling times and battery degradation.

AMAZON HAD A BIT OF A MIXED WEEK...

  • The week started off with Amazon employees being investigated for data-leaks-for-bribes (Monday) involving staff selling data to companies wanting to get ahead of the competition. Then news came out that the EU was doing a preliminary investigation looking at the way Amazon uses its data (Thursday) and there was some discussion as to whether the company should split itself into two divisions (Wednesday) – namely retail and cloud businesses – in order to head off any enforced regulatory burdens further down the line. On the plus side, it’s still ploughing ahead with new things (Friday) like a rollout of 3,000 of its cashless stores (an unconfirmed rumour at present), investment in India and a new Alexa-enabled chip that can be put into everyday household devices.

...AND THERE WERE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING TALKING POINTS...

  • Cannabis-related news featured a lot this week ahead of legalisation in Canada. Coca-Cola was rumoured to be looking at making cannabis-infused beverages (Tuesday) as part of its diversification away from the fizzy black stuff and then Tilray, a cannabis producer that floated at $17 per share only two months ago, hit $300 (Thursday) on news that it had received approval from the US Drug Enforcement Administration to import one of its products in capsule form to use in a clinical trial to treat a neurological disorder called essential tremor.
  • The week ended with some interesting news that Uber is considering the acquisition of Deliveroo (Friday) – but talks appear to be in the early stages. Further consolidation is bound to happen whether this deal goes ahead or not.

BANTER

TBH it all seemed a bit tame for my liking this week in terms of “bants”, but if I had to choose, the stories I liked most were Uranus Examiner promises to get to the bottom of stories (Metro, Kate Buck https://tinyurl.com/ycwcd6ez) and This is officially Britain’s best lawn (and it took 273 hours to mow) (Metro, Jen Mills https://tinyurl.com/y7dal969)

Have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 14-09-2018

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

The day in brackets refers to the edition where the story appeared. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

THERE WAS A LOT GOING ON MACRO-WISE THIS WEEK...

  • Sweden got the results of its parliamentary elections (Tuesday) which showed a swing in support for the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. Although the swing wasn’t quite as bad as originally feared, it was strong enough to leave behind a sticky situation for the remaining centre-left and centre-right parties in forming a government. They really need to sort this before the budget vote, which is due in December
  • Although it kind of doesn’t feel like it right now, it was actually a reasonably good week for the UK stats-wise. Wages are going up (Wednesday), job growth in UK manufacturing is at record levels (Friday) and even UK GDP is on the rise (Tuesday). This is good news, but I expect things to calm down the closer we get to Brexit
  • The oil price trended higher (Thursday) as global supplies are get tighter. Venezuelan supply has collapsed, Iran can’t take up any production slack because the US is imposing sanctions on it whilst severe outages in Libya and falling supply in Angola are all contributory factors hitting supply just as the US is facing storms that could disrupt the Colonial Pipeline (which runs through the Carolinas) or even the Gulf of Mexico

...AND IN CAR-RELATED STUFF THIS WEEK...

  • Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing announced a big loss (Tuesday) for the first half of the year, against a hostile backdrop due to two of its drivers being involved in the murder of their passengers and public calls for greater safety. The fact is that Didi is WAAAAAY bigger than even its nearest rivals and has built itself up into an absolute beast of a company with 550m registered users – more than 50% of all of China’s internet users – and 30m drivers. I think its sheer scale will see it through, but it needs to square away all this bad news right now or it could find itself in an Uber-like nightmare.
  • Volvo decided to postpone its proposed initial public offering (Tuesday) to wait for better market conditions. Volvo, which is owned by China’s Geely, had originally pencilled in an IPO before the end of the year but Trump’s tariff shenanigans has obviously put paid to that for the time being. Not a surprise.
  • Yet another senior exec has left Tesla (Friday), as the company’s vice president of worldwide finance and operation, Justin McAnear, following the recent departures of its chief of HR, communications director and senior vice-president of software engineering. Things aren’t going great for Elon Musk at the moment.
  • Williams is working on a new joint venture with Unipart, called Hyperbat, which will make batteries for electric cars (Tuesday) that are twice as powerful as those currently being put into Tesla cars. The batteries will be for Aston Martin’s first ever electric car, the RadpidE.

MEANWHILE, RETAILERS HAD THEIR UPS AND DOWNS...

  • The world’s biggest retailer, Inditex, unveiled a decent set of results (Thursday) against a mixed backdrop for retailers worldwide. It has managed to strike a decent balance between online and offline services, but other apparel retailers have started to copy its model and it is also facing potential headwinds in the form of currency problems given that almost all of its merch is made in Europe but over half of it is sold outside the Eurozone.
  • Debenhams hit the headlines a lot this week, firstly batting away suggestions it was in trouble (Monday) and then towards the end of the week Sports Direct had to issue a formal statement saying that it did not plan on making a formal bid for the department store (Thursday) for six months, whilst at the same time reserving the right to make a bid if there was a “material change of circumstances” with agreement from the board or after a bid from a third party. This all happened because one of the senior execs let slip that the board had discussed the possibility of taking it over.
  • John Lewis saw its profits fall by a whopping 99% (Friday) as it continues its major restructuring programme. Its “Never knowingly undersold” promise came in for a lot of criticism, although its chairman Sir Charlie Mayfield defended it. I think it is massively outdated and needs to get ditched given the current retail environment.
  • Morrisons announced its best sales figures in years (Friday) as the fruits of the turnaround are starting to come through after store revamps, broadening of product ranges and pepping up the online business via its partnerships with Ocado and Amazon.

...AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME E-CIGARETTES COULD BE FACING POTENTIAL EXTINCTION...

  • The US Federal Drug Administration said it might ban all flavoured e-cigarettes (Thursday) in order to “narrow the off-ramp for adults to close the on-ramp for kids”. Players in this area such as Juul Labs (which has a massive 70% market share in e-cigarettes) will have 60 days to come up with a plan to stop young people starting the habit. Big tobacco companies saw their shares rise because a) they are used to tons of restrictions b) because vaping is only a tiny bit of their overall business and c) they have far deeper pockets than the smaller specialists.

BANTER

My favourite bit of “bants” this week was about Surrey Police getting down with the kids in Police hope this embarrassing ‘slang dictionary’ will help them engage with young people (Metro, Harley Tamplin https://tinyurl.com/ycqxxm69). Brilliant. Especially the bit about Stormzy!

Have a great weekend! 

Watson’s Weekly 27-08-2018

 …is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog  woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

The day in brackets refers to the edition where the story appeared. 

MACRO STUFF

  • Tariffs garnered more headlines this week as the US announced its latest tariff attack on China (Wednesday), with the latest round covering 279 products (mainly chemicals and electronic parts) worth about $16bn, bringing the grand total of Chinese products covered by new duties to $50bn so far. China retaliated (Friday) with imposing 25% taxes on $16bn of US imports but notably left oil off the list as it is a big user.
  • There was quite a lot of needle going around this week what with the US reimposing economic sanctions on Iran (Tuesday) and Saudi Arabia slamming Canada (Thursday) for criticising its arrest of an activist. It decided to show its displeasure via its central bank and state pension funds ordering their overseas asset managers to sell their Canadian equities, bonds and cash holdings “no matter the cost”, amongst a whole host of other things.
  • The Japanese economy managed to return to the growth track (Friday) which should help PM Shinzo Abe get elected for another term next month, but Turkey and its currency continued to suffer (Friday) as President Erdogan continues to resist pressure to let his central bank raise rates which would help to arrest the precipitous slide of the lira.

IT WAS A MIXED WEEK FOR RETAILERS

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit….

  • …as House of Fraser laboured under a cloud (Friday) only to be bought by Sports Direct for £90m right at the last minute!
  • Homebase announced that 60 of its 249 stores are to close (Thursday) as part of a company voluntary agreement to be announced next week with over 1,000 jobs hanging in the balance
  • TopShop lost its China online trading partner (Friday) putting a dent in its China ambitions
  • …but on the plus side, Ikea announced the opening of its first store in India (Friday) with others to follow. India is likely to be a tricky market for the company, but I think that if it is successful in attracting new local suppliers it could use them to supply shops in other countries and increase margins elsewhere. I suspect that margins in India will be very low.

THE OTHER BIG STORY THIS WEEK WAS TESLA...

  • …as it all kicked off this week when Tesla founder Elon Musk tweeted “Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured” (Wednesday, Thursday – but the tweet was at the beginning of the week). The stock rallied, but not to $420 as the market remained sceptical about whether he’d follow through with it. The SEC is looking into whether his claim of “funding secured” is actually true (and if it isn’t, he’ll probably have to face fines and lawsuits) but, from his side, it seems that no final decisions have been made. I think he should stay public as it keeps him from doing anything REALLY stupid and investors have thus far been a very generous source of cash when called upon – a generosity which might not be quite the same under a private owner. Just ask Travis Kalanick, the founder of Uber who was kicked out of the top job by the company’s biggest investors.

BANTER

I have two faves from this week’s “…and finally” stories: Ed Balls tasered: Former Shadow Chancellor stunned in shock police video – watch here (Daily Express, Rory O’Connor) and Grandfather uses 11 smartphones attached to a bicycle to play Pokemon Go (Metro, Jimmy Nsubuga ), which is a thing of genius. On a serious note, I recommend that you watch the BBC2 documentary that Ed Balls is presenting – it’s a real eye-opener and he does a great job! 

Have a great weekend!