This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week.
THE COLOURED HIGHLIGHT REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.
IN BIG PICTURE NEWS...
The ceasefire has a wobble, Trump suffers some setbacks and Burnham talks changes
IN WAR NEWS…
THE MIDDLE EAST – Fresh missile exchanges between the US and Iran highlighted the fragile nature of the ceasefire deal struck less than two weeks ago. That said, transits through the Strait of Hormuz have more than quadrupled over the past week as confidence in the 60-day ceasefire grows.
The CEO of Japan’s NYK Line, which operates over 900 vessels, warned that shipping through the Strait will remain at less than half of pre-war levels for months even if the peace holds, due to the capacity limitations of safer alternative routes. Almost 1,200 cargo ships carrying $125bn worth of goods remain stranded.
UKRAINE – Putin has admitted for the first time that Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have caused domestic fuel shortages, with several regions forced to ration petrol. Ukraine appears able to strike targets deep within Russia at will and sentiment around the war has shifted notably over the past three months, with momentum now seen to be with Ukraine both militarily and economically.
IN DEFENCE NEWS…
NATO’s top official made the economic case for Trump to remain committed to the alliance, citing 195,000 US defence jobs sustained by Europe’s rearmament drive.
German officials are separately pushing for more American weapons to be built in Germany, ahead of next week’s NATO conference in Ankara.
The Royal Navy has announced plans to order at least six combat ships capable of deploying drones in the air and underwater, to be delivered in the early 2030s, reflecting the lessons of Ukraine and the growing importance of unmanned systems over conventional military hardware. It scrapped plans to buy frigates in order to do this because of the way that modern warfare is changing.
TRUMP THINGS…
Trump’s annual financial disclosure revealed that he earned over $1.16bn last year, primarily from crypto sales and memecoin royalties, while still holding 15.75bn World Liberty Financial tokens. The disclosure also showed substantial payments from companies including Meta and Alphabet into entities linked to the president, as well as a significant volume of previously undisclosed stock trades.
The Supreme Court blocked Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, preserving central bank independence for now. Separately, the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s bid to end automatic birthright citizenship for those born on US soil, representing a further check on his presidential powers.
IN REGIONAL/INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY NEWS…
THE AMERICAS
US – The US has opted not to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade deal Trump struck in his first term that covered over $1.5tn in annual trade. Commerce will instead be subject to annual reviews, creating ongoing uncertainty for all three economies. A recent poll showed that 75% of US voters considered the pact good for the economy.
VENEZUELA – Rising frustration over the slow official response to last week’s devastating earthquakes is adding to pressure on interim leader Delcy Rodriguez. Venezuela is also set to reveal a $240bn debt pile in what could be the world’s largest ever debt restructuring as the country attempts to re-engage international creditors after nearly a decade of isolation under the previous leadership.
EUROPE
Eurozone inflation fell more than expected to 2.8% in June, coming in below market expectations of 3%. It comes in the same month that the ECB raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points but I’d say that the reading suggests prices were already easing before the rate rise filtered through to the real economy. Interest rate changes never have an impact this quickly!
UK
Outgoing PM Keir Starmer published the long-delayed Defence Investment Plan, allocating at least £1bn in additional defence spending with £5bn earmarked for drones. The plan had taken months and several ministerial resignations to reach this point.
Households face the steepest summer rise in energy bills for four years this week as the quarterly gas and electricity price cap increases and locks in at an elevated level until October.
Andy Burnham, the incoming prime minister, set out a broad vision he calls “Manchesterism”, promising the largest council housebuilding programme in 50 years, more regional control over public services, welfare reform and better living standards across every postcode. Investors were reassured by signals that he intends to respect Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules. Critics note that Burnham’s speech lacked detail, that past governments have made similar promises about devolution without delivering, and that his northern focus could alienate voters in London and the south. The CEO of Currys urged Burnham to reduce employment costs, arguing that Reeves’s National Insurance increases raised the cost of employing a part-time worker by 13% overnight.
IN COMMODITIES NEWS…
OIL – The oil price fell below the pre-war level of $72 a barrel as the ceasefire seems to be largely sticking and Hormuz transits increase.
GOLD – Gold is on track for its worst quarter in more than a decade, falling from a record high of almost $5,595 in January to around $3,943 now, as rising US interest rate expectations make interest-bearing assets more attractive. Also, some traders will have sold gold to fund purchases of AI stocks, chipmakers and new IPOs.
IN ENERGY NEWS…
Europe is heading into the winter heating season with gas storage at its lowest level since at least 2011, caused by zero LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz during the war and restricted output from Qatar and the UAE. The European Commission maintains that 80% storage is sufficient to secure winter supply but the situation will take time to normalise.
A Warsaw-based consortium, SGE, has outlined plans to invest £35bn in 14 nuclear reactors across three sites in Britain, potentially generating 11% of the UK’s total electricity supply and powering eight million homes! However, the project remains theoretical at this stage.
IN CURRENCY NEWS…
The yen has fallen to a 40-year low of ¥162 to the dollar driven by the economic fallout from the Iran war and persistent inflation. This should benefit Japanese tourism and exports but higher air fares and a generally elevated cost of living will complicate any tourism boost.
IN CRYPTO NEWS…
Bitcoin hoarder Strategy is selling down bitcoin holdings to raise $1.25bn, abandoning its co-founder’s “never sell” mantra after the cryptocurrency lost more than half its value from its October high of $126,000! Strategy is now worth less than the bitcoin it holds.
Binance will stop providing services to EU clients after its Greek licence application failed over concerns about money laundering controls. Under the EU’s MiCA regulation, all crypto companies must hold a licence to operate in the region from July 1st.
The FCA is also bringing in sweeping new rules for crypto firms operating in the UK, requiring them to demonstrate resilience to market shocks and hold capital against risky assets when the rules come into force next October.
IN INVESTMENT, BUSINESS & EMPLOYMENT NEWS...
IN INVESTMENT NEWS/TRENDS…
MARKETS – The Bank for International Settlements warned that excessive spending on AI datacentres raises the risk of a financial markets meltdown if hyperscalers slow their capital expenditure, leaving borrowers across the supply chain unable to service their debt.
The Magnificent Seven stocks shed $2.2tn in value over June, their worst collective performance in over a year, as investors rotated from AI infrastructure builders into chipmakers benefiting from it. Companies making chips, memory, cooling systems and connectors have seen share prices surge, with Micron, Sandisk, TSMC and ASML among the standouts.
Wall Street profit forecasts are rising at their fastest pace since the post-pandemic rebound, fuelling concern about an “earnings bubble”.
Sovereign wealth funds are migrating from listed stock markets into unlisted assets including private equity, private credit and infrastructure as public markets become increasingly concentrated.
Italian conglomerate Bending Spoons, which buys and fixes struggling tech companies including Vimeo, AOL and Eventbrite, jumped 40% on its NASDAQ debut, raising $1.68bn at a valuation of $18.4bn.
China Resources New Energy’s shares tripled on debut in Asia’s biggest IPO of the year.
Chinese social platform RedNote is preparing for a Hong Kong listing expected to be the biggest Chinese internet company IPO in five years.
KNDS, the Franco-German tank maker, postponed its planned Paris and Frankfurt listing after investors balked at the €12bn valuation, despite a much higher figure having been mooted earlier in the year.
The AA is preparing a return to public markets via a London float, alongside rival RAC, which could be positive for the London Stock Exchange.
Self-driving systems start-up Wayve announced that it will trade its shares on the LSE’s new private markets platform Pisces from next Wednesday. It will be be the first major company to do so – so this is an exciting moment!
M&A – Global dealmaking hit a record $2.8tn in the first half of the year, a 49% uplift versus the same period last year, with 47 transactions worth more than $10bn representing a 62% increase year on year.
M&A in the US power sector hit $206.3bn in the first five months of 2026, already 40% higher than the total for all of last year, with datacentre investment of $151.5bn more than double the same period a year earlier!
Lockheed Martin is in pole position to buy naval technology group Ultra Maritime in a $3.5bn deal. Gymshark founder Ben Francis is in talks to buy back General Atlantic’s 21% stake. Decathlon and Shanghai-based BA Capital have together taken a 15% stake in British fold-up bike maker Brompton.
IN BUSINESS NEWS/TRENDS…
Maersk has raised its full-year profit guidance by at least $1bn, driven by strong demand from the Far East as US retailers stockpile inventory from China in order to get ahead of new 10% tariffs due in late July.
The EU is introducing a €3 charge on parcels worth up to €150 from this week, closing a loophole that has given firms like Shein and Temu a major advantage. UK retailers have been pushing for something similar but the best the government has managed is a closure date of October 2028.
UK business confidence fell in the latest Lloyds Bank survey due to rising inflationary and cost pressures from the Middle East conflicts.
The UK now has the third highest number of unicorn companies in the world after the US and China, with 80 private companies worth over $1bn, more than Germany, France, the Netherlands and Sweden combined, with fintech and AI behind most of the growth.
Blue Owl’s private credit fund was hit by $4.7bn of redemption requests in Q2, adding to the persistent investor exodus from the private credit sector.
Travel aggregator Skyscanner research shows that 38% of travellers plan to use AI to research holidays and 33% to plan them, pushing hospitality companies to invest in agentic booking capabilities integrated into large language models.
The migration from the billable hour for management consultants towards outcomes-based charging is continuing, although it’s not smooth! Other professions (like accountancy) might face more difficulties in making the transition given that they are subject to stricter regulatory frameworks.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
IN THE US – US employers added just 57,000 new jobs in June, roughly half the number forecast.
Silicon Valley’s ongoing tech jobs cull has hit morale badly, with Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle all making significant redundancy announcements while other major tech employers have slowed hiring sharply.
IN EUROPE – Germany is bringing in tough new rules requiring workers to see a doctor in person on the first day of sick leave rather than calling in by phone on day three, part of a package of summer economic reforms. German workers currently take around 15 working days of sick leave per year, and employers have welcomed the change while unions and doctors are opposed.
IN CONSUMER, RETAIL & LEISURE NEWS...
IN CONSUMER TRENDS…
UK – A UBS report found that British families suffered the biggest fall in wealth since the pandemic among the 37 rich countries surveyed, driven by inflation and a housing market slowdown.
Credit card defaults hit their highest level since Q3 of 2009 according to Bank of England data.
Sainsbury’s CEO said food price inflation will not reach the 9% peak forecast by the Food and Drink Federation, pointing to easing food inflation in recent months, while warning that consumers remain very cautious about non-food spending.
Phone and laptop prices are set to rise, according to the CEO of Currys. More bad news for already-straitened consumers!
On the other hand, Manchester and Stansted airports reported record passenger numbers, suggesting consumers are still willing to spend on holidays despite cost pressures.
IN RETAIL NEWS…
TG Jones secured court approval for a rescue plan that will close up to 150 stores, with over 120 landlords asked to accept rent-free periods of up to three years. Landlords including British Land, Landsec, M&G and NewRiver are unhappy but appear to have limited alternatives given high vacancy rates on high streets already.
Asda has shed 7,500 roles over the past year while debt costs have surged above £730m, with a further 1,000 cuts planned as part of an automation push. Asda remains the only major UK supermarket losing both sales and market share.
IN CONSUMER GOODS NEWS…
Nike reported a further quarterly revenue decline and cut its forecasts again, with weakness in China compounding broader consumer caution. The company’s turnaround plan has yet to gain meaningful traction.
IN LEISURE NEWS…
One in four pubs and restaurants is now running at a loss according to an industry survey, up from one in six just three months ago. The sector is calling for a VAT reduction and incoming PM Andy Burnham has previously signalled that he would support this.
On a brighter note, the World Cup has delivered better-than-expected beer sales at UK pubs, with 5.5 million additional pints served so far. Prediction markets firm Plus500 is launching sports betting products in the US to capitalise on the growing prediction markets boom (and the World Cup), with its customers now able to access Kalshi.
IN TECH & MEDIA NEWS...
IN TECH NEWS…
AI MODELS – The US government relented partially on Anthropic, allowing it to release its newest Mythos model to around 100 vetted trusted partners including companies and government departments after Anthropic addressed some security concerns. The export controls were subsequently lifted entirely, allowing the general public to access Fable 5 once more and then Anthropic launched a new product called Claude Science. Meanwhile, the company is separately closing loopholes that allowed Chinese companies including Ant Financial to access its tools via workarounds.
OpenAI’s newest models including GPT-5.6 are in a similar position, with early-access users required to be vetted by the US government. It is considering offering the US government a 5% stake in the company to ease political obstacles although this would require an act of Congress. In addition to this, Sam Altman has proposed a US-led international forum to set global AI standards but critics note this would entrench America’s lead. Also, in order to actually work, China would have to be a part of it – and I can’t see that happening! Talking of Chinese AI developments, DeepSeek is planning to double many of its core teams as it moves from frontier research into product development.
It is also worth mentioning that the White House is set to announce voluntary AI model standards next week, setting benchmarks and timelines to prevent a repeat of the Anthropic recall episode.
CHIPS – Micron’s share price has shot up by 300% this year as it emerges as a prime beneficiary of AI demand for high-bandwidth memory chips, with its market cap now exceeding $1tn! Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron control the entire market for these chips and demand continues to outstrip supply.
South Korean semiconductor workers at SK Hynix and Samsung are getting paid so much money via receiving bonuses worth multiples of their salaries and retail investors are seeing such huge share gains, that they are creating a luxury spending boom but also widening wealth inequality in a country already grappling with high rates of elderly poverty.
DATA CENTRES – Farmers near Great Torrington in Devon are resisting plans for what would be Britain’s biggest data centre, citing water usage and countryside impact. Battery companies are seeing rapidly rising demand from data centres, where their products smooth split-second power surges.
HARDWARE – Speculation is growing about the device that Jony Ive and Sam Altman are developing as a potential smartphone successor, with smart glasses seen as the most likely form factor.
Apple is pushing the Trump administration to allow it to source memory chips from blacklisted Chinese company CXMT to address the chip shortage that led to recent price rises.
SpaceX is exploring a consumer Starlink mobile service in the US that could pit it directly against Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile. Sony has announced it will stop producing physical games from January 2028, with digital sales already accounting for over 80% of games sold in recent quarters.
SOFTWARE – Google has been ordered by the Stockholm Patent and Market Court to pay Klarna almost $2bn in antitrust damages for prioritising its own price comparison service over Klarna’s PriceRunner.
IN MEDIA NEWS…
Comcast has announced it will spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate media company within a year, leaving Comcast as a pure broadband and wireless network business. Comcast’s share price rose more than 24% on the announcement before settling at an 8% gain.
The AI advertising boom was a major theme at the Cannes Lions festival, with WPP Media forecasting that generative search advertising revenue will grow from $5.1bn globally this year to over $101bn by 2030.
Spotify removed over half a million suspicious streams of a chart-topping song after identifying what appeared to be bot manipulation linked to prediction market traders on Kalshi, who are estimated to have made 20 times their initial outlay.
IN AUTOMOTIVE NEWS...
IN AUTOMOTIVE NEWS…
IN EVs – Tesla deliveries rose 25% in Q2 in Europe as high fuel prices accelerated the shift to electric vehicles, according to the latest figures from the European car industry body, the ACEA.
Chinese electric lorry start-up Windrose Electric is pursuing a SPAC-backed listing at a valuation of at least $2bn, arguing that lower manufacturing costs make it competitive in the US despite tariffs.
IN BATTERIES – Western battery start-ups including Sweden’s Altris and America’s Ion Storage Systems are looking to use spare Chinese factory capacity to scale up, although IP leakage and supply chain dependence are significant risks.
IN DRIVERLESS – Stellantis announced it will use Wayve’s autonomous driving software across all of its brands from 2028.
Shenzhen has introduced new rules allowing the commercial rollout of robotaxis from July 1st. Gig workers aren’t going to like this but the city’s transport authority argues that the taxi market is already saturated.
IN TRADITIONAL CARMAKERS – German carmakers are embarking on their deepest ever restructuring, with VW cutting as many as 100,000 jobs over coming years, BMW spending up to €1bn on restructuring and cutting up to 10,000 jobs and Mercedes-Benz freezing bonuses with 5,500 staff already taking voluntary redundancy.
IN MISCELLANEOUS NEWS...
IN REAL ESTATE…
INVESTMENT – two major overseas pension funds, Australia’s Aware Super and Canada’s Oxford Properties, are pausing or rethinking UK housing investments, citing legislative changes. This is unhelpful for the government’s target of building 1.5 million homes over this parliament.
STATE OF THE MARKET – Over a third of new London homes built for private sale had to be bought back by developers last year, up from a quarter in 2024, reflecting an affordability squeeze.
Prefabricated eco-home builder Agile Property and Homes is on the verge of collapse as rising building costs have decimated its finances.
MORTGAGES – UK mortgage approvals fell in May to their lowest level in two and a half years, which some analysts say could be a sign of a gloomy outlook to come. That being said, house prices were flat in June with cautious optimism about the second half of the year according to Nationwide.
IN COMMERCIAL PROPERTY – Barclays bought its Canary Wharf headquarters at One Churchill Place for £750m, one of the biggest European office deals in recent years and then PwC signed a deal to rent 350,000 sq ft at One Eden in Canary Wharf, further reinforcing the area’s status as a business destination.
IN FINANCIALS NEWS…
Halifax is to disappear as a standalone brand after Lloyds Banking Group decided to consolidate under the Lloyds name in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Nationwide is cutting 600 jobs in its first redundancy round since its £2.9bn acquisition of Virgin Money. I bet there will be more to come…
Digital lender Atom Bank is close to collapse after an auction process failed to attract bids at its desired price of £600m, with the bank having struggled to keep up with rivals such as Revolut and Monzo.
BANTER
My fave video of this week was the urban bike riding one. It looks terrifying – but also pretty exhilarating!