Category: Today

Starmer shifts from boots on the ground in Ukraine to air and sea defence (Financial Times, George Parker, Lucy Fisher, Charles Clover and Henry Foy) shows that Starmer is now widening the Ukraine defence conversation to include not just land support – but also air and sea support. Up until now he has concentrated on “boots on the ground” but in his meeting with military planners from a “coalition of the willing” near London, he stressed the need for Putin to know that “there will be severe consequences” if he broke a ceasefire. Putin continues to reject the presence of troops from NATO countries as part of any peace agreement. Meanwhile, European military powers work on 5-10 year plan to replace US in Nato (Financial Times, Henry Foy and Ben Hall) highlights the coming together of the UK, France, Germany, the Nordics and other countries to plan for a NATO without the US. In the short term, they’re aiming to come up with something they can present to Trump ahead of the NATO annual leaders’ summit in The Hague in June. The US currently spends more on defence that all other NATO allies combined.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump invokes wartime powers to increase US minerals production (Financial Times, Stephanie Stacey, Myles McCormick and Camilla Hodgson) shows that Trump has invoked the wartime powers of the Defense Production Act to increase American minerals production and wean itself off its reliance on China for critical resources. The executive order calls for the expansion of domestic minerals output on grounds of national security. The effect? It’ll mean that projects already in train will be accelerated while planning for mining purposes will be eased. * SO WHAT? * Trump is on a mission to ensure access to critical minerals, which is why he’s talking about annexing Greenland and why he’s holding Ukraine to ransom for its rare earths.

Why Donald Trump is interested in Ukraine’s nuclear power plants (Financial Times, Christopher Miller, Polina Ivanova and Ben Hall) is an interesting article which looks at the reasons why Trump is interested in taking control of the country’s power plants. President Zelenskyy wants help specifically with Europe’s biggest nuclear power plants that is currently under Russian control, Zaporizhzhia. The Russians took it over three years ago and before the invasion it used to generate about 20% of Ukraine’s electricity. Ukraine currently has four nuclear power plants with 15 nuclear reactors. Six of the reactors are at Zaporizhzhia and have been shut down whilst they’ve been under Russian control. The others are at three plants under Ukrainian control and are operational. So why is Trump so interested in them? Well it could be because he wants use them to power the extraction of those rare earths he’s so interested in. President Zelenskyy may be amenable to the US taking at least a stake in them as it would incentivise them to provide some protection. The talks continue…

As all this is going on, Russia Touts Economic Opportunities. Western Companies Are Wary. (Wall Street Journal, Jeanne Whalen) shows that Russia is dangling the carrot of new investment opportunities for American companies when/if the Ukraine war comes to an end. Putin said that Western firms that had never left Russia or ones that could start exporting to Russia without having to make any long-term investments would be best placed to benefit from a thaw in relations whilst those who exited and/or sold down their Russian assets for fire sale prices won’t be allowed to buy them back for the same low price. He also said that American companies could join projects to mine Russia’s rare-earth mineral deposits or jointly develop energy projects in the Arctic and there’s even talk about a link-up with Musk about a potential mission to Mars. * SO WHAT? * I think companies would be absolutely bonkers to team up with the Russians as long as Putin is in charge because you just never know what’s going to happen or whether he will keep any promises. Neither side would completely trust each other and that’s never good. The only time that I think western businesses should even consider going to Russia is if Putin is out and the new regime is more pro-West, but I can’t see that happening any time soon. In the meantime, I’d say there are better places to do business that will be less problematic…

Although it’s not a “commercial” bit of news per se, I thought ‘Extermination camp’ discovery horrifies Mexico (Financial Times, Thomas Graham) was worth mentioning as it is pretty shocking. Basically, a drug cartel “extermination camp” has been discovered in the state of Jalisco. Above ground, it looks like the ranch was a recruitment and training camp for the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, one of Mexico’s most feared organised crime groups, while below ground there were several underground ovens that were apparently used to dispose of dead bodies.

Across Mexico, at least 100,000 people are registered missing (although that’s highly likely to be understated). * SO WHAT? * The camp was first discovered by authorities in September 2024 and led to the arrest of 10 armed people, the release of two kidnapped people and the discovery of one body. However, the ovens and large amounts of clothing were only discovered last week when a group of relatives of missing people, called the Warrior Searchers of Jalisco, went to the ranch to follow an anonymous tip-off. That’s when they found all the underground remains. This is a nightmare for new president, Claudia Scheinbaum, and she accuses opponents of using this as a way to undermine her and her government. I would have thought this is going to weaken her standing, give Trump more ammo to browbeat her and therefore make any negotiations between the US and Mexico more difficult…the whole thing is absolutely shocking.

Elsewhere, Canada election expected to be held on April 28 (Financial Times, Ilya Gridneff) shows that Mark Carney, Canada’s new PM, is expected to call a federal election for April 28th. A swift election has been expected and Carney is clearly keen on tapping into the momentum he’s experienced so far. The opposition Conservatives had been on track to win an election but since Carney took over from Trudeau, there has been a huge swing in the Liberal party’s favour, particularly as the Conservatives’ leader has been shown to have links to Trump’s MAGA movement. Polls currently show Carney slightly edging it over conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.

In Europe, Turkey detains 37 in escalating crackdown on opposition to Erdoğan (Financial Times, Ayla Jean Yackley) shows that Erdoğan is back to his old tricks again as Turkey’s government turned the screws on the opposition by detaining critics of his regime and searching for an additional 224 suspects. Istabul’s popular mayor was going to become the main opposition nominee for president this weekend but he was arrested on Wednesday, sparking protests. Erdoğan has banned demonstrations in Istambul for the rest of this week, stopped access to a number of social media sites and slowed down internet connections. * SO WHAT? * Erdoğan has been in Turkish politics since 2002 and clearly doesn’t want to cede power easily. He won his latest term in office in the elections of May 2023 and although his economic policies have changed to reflect the accepted norm (that you RAISE interest rates to slow inflation – he believed the exact opposivte) he’s still not above the suppression of critical voices. The next elections are not scheduled until 2028 but Turkish people are still suffering from a terrible cost-of-living crisis.

Back home, Bank of England says companies freezing hiring plans as it keeps interest rates on hold (The Guardian, Richard Partington) shows that our central bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.5% whilst observing that companies are having a hiring freeze and that “there’s a lot of economic uncertainty at the moment”. It did indicate that the path for interest rates was still in the downward direction but clearly it has decided to be cautious. Rachel Reeves’s problems just got a whole lot worse (Daily Telegraph, Tim Wallace) suggests that the chancellor’s plans to boost economic growth by increasing spending on the public sector have been torpedoed by her tax-raising policies while borrowing costs have severely reduced her fiscal buffer. The fact that the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at least partly because of inflation concerns will also be weighing on the chancellor’s mind. * SO WHAT? * The spectre of inflation means that interest rates could be higher for longer, which means that the government’s borrowing costs will also be higher for longer at a very tricky time! The fact that wage growth (which I talk about more below) remains robust is also a danger for inflation.

In terms of reaction, Global markets take fright after central banks stall on rate cuts (The Times, Mehreen Khan) shows that global stock markets continue to weaken thanks to the uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs while Retail investors take on hedge funds in Europe’s answer to ‘meme stock’ mania (Financial Times, Mari Novik, Jamie John and George Steer) highlights something funny going on as retail investors appear to be attacking hedge fund shorts in companies such as Renk Group and Latecoere in actions reminiscent of the 2021 meme-stock rally (remember GameStop??). When you consider that Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defence index has risen by 16% since late February while the share prices of Renk Group, Latecoere and Eutelsat have risen by almost 50%, 80% and 300% over the same time period, you know something is happening. Reddit appears once again to be where the investors are hanging out!

Protectionism will help push up insurance prices, says Lloyd’s of London chief (Financial Times, Lee Harris) cites the outgoing head of Lloyd’s of London who said that US protectionism will mean higher insurance prices for longer across many lines of business, reversing the expected fall in premiums thanks to new capital flowing into the industry. * SO WHAT? * Insurers are expected to benefit given that financials risks are now greater, meaning that more companies will be eager to take out more insurance.

Then in Europe tries to fix its plumbing — and leave Starlink behind (Financial Times, Alan Beattie) we see another article discussing the effect of Trump’s sabre-rattling on Starlink. European countries have come to the sobering realisation that we’ve been sleepwalking into handing the Americans a near monopoly of satellite comms and they are now scrambling to do what they can to reverse this. * SO WHAT? * Although investing in systems that aren’t American or Chinese is going to cost more in the short term, the idea is that supporting European alternatives will be safer for us all in the long run. The IRIS² project to create a fleet of LEO satellites was held up by various disagreements between European countries but Trump’s recent actions (and Musk’s threats) have concentrated everyone’s minds given that we clearly need to have an alternative. Unfortunately, all of this is going to come too late for Ukraine to be immune to American threats to switch the satellites off, but the high price of (belated) investment now is expected to pay long term dividends in terms of both capability and peace of mind. The time for debate is over – action and construction are needed.

The pressure on Musk continues in Tesla’s staff at German plant demand better working conditions (Financial Times, Patricia Nilsson) where workers at his German plant have signed a petition demanding better working conditions. They want more breaks, better staffing and the

end of management harassment. Then in Tesla backer says Musk must reduce Trump work, as 46,000 Cybertrucks recalled (The Guardian, Dan Milmo and Ashifa Kassam) we see that the MD of Wedbush, Dan Ives, who has been a long-time major fan of Tesla, believes that Musk’s association with DOGE was damaging both his and his company’s reputation. It is also interesting to note that the Vancouver Auto Show announced that it was removing Tesla just hours before the show was due to start on Wednesday due to security and safety concerns. Then in Accenture blames Elon Musk’s US spending cuts for drop in revenues (The Times, Louisa Clarence-Smith) we see that the DOGE crackdown on consulting firms working on lucrative government contracts is starting to hit revenues already as new business is drying up in its federal services division. It had been working on big projects in cloud migration, AI and data security. * SO WHAT? * FWIW, I think that Musk’s actions are propelling him down a path where people are going to give him the ultimatum – stay in Washington or run your companies, but you can’t do both.  I expect Musk will want to continue to do both (he is unique, after all!) but he recently said that he would stay in Washington for as long as he felt needed, which I think leaves the exit door ajar. I believe that while he’s in the White House and doing some of Trump’s dirty work, share prices in his companies are likely to be vulnerable. HOWEVER, I also think that if he DOES leave to run his companies once more, there will be an almighty relief rally in those names because investors will like the fact that he’s more focused – but he’ll probably be back bigger, better and very well-informed thanks to his time at DOGE and his proximity to Trump. I also believe that he’s reaching a point where he would be better advised to get visible CEOs for his companies to at least be their public face, which may slow down the damage that he is currently doing. As for Tesla, though, I think that it could be toast because his line-up’s too old, fewer people are going to buy them because of the association with him and there are so many more alternatives available. If he can’t get a few new cars out in the market pronto, Tesla is going to be in big trouble IMO…

UK wage growth stabilises in January (The Times, Mehreen Khan) cites the latest figures from the ONS, which suggest that the labour market is still quite tight despite all the complaints from companies that labour costs are going to rise from next month – wage growth remained unchanged in the three months to January. Why is UK wage growth so strong? (Financial Times, Delphine Strauss and Valentina Romei) observed that while rising inflation, labour shortages and public sector strikes powered wage growth to a peak of 8.3% in the summer of 2023, the economy has since lost momentum, vacancies have dropped and employers are imposing hiring freezes. Despite all this, average earnings still grew at 5.9% versus the same quarter a year ago. The article suggests that the rise in the statutory minimum wage could be a driver because staff who are higher up may also get paid more to ensure that there are still incentives for promotion. The mix of jobs in the economy could also be changing as employment in the low-wage retail sector has fallen over the past year, for instance, while employment in professional areas and financial services has increased. * SO WHAT? * If the “new normal” pay rises are in the 3.5-4% range as opposed to the pre-pandemic norm of 3%, the Bank of England’s

inflation expectations may need to be adjusted to 3% instead of 2%. At the moment, households aren’t spending as people are now saving a historically high proportion of their income because they’re taking into account rising food, energy and housing costs as well as the possibility of cuts in jobs and public spending. All the talk of trade war and the effects of an increase in defence spending aren’t helping to lift the gloom either.

One-bed flats unaffordable for key workers across half of England (Financial Times, Joshua Oliver and Amy Borrett) cites research from Shelter which says that almost 50% of key workers can’t afford to rent a one-bedroom flat, highlighting the consequences of the current housing shortage. * SO WHAT? * The ONS defines spending over 30% of gross pay on housing as being “unaffordable”, which means that nurses, teachers and healthcare assistants are out of luck. 40 economists signed an open letter yesterday, calling on the chancellor to prioritise spending on affordable housing in next week’s Spring Statement and the spending review in June. This is obviously an extremely tricky and delicate situation.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Nike Forecast Steeper Fourth-Quarter Sales Drop in Early Days of Turnaround (Wall Street Journal, Sabela Ojea) shows that the company’s nightmare (or should I say “nike-mare”?!? Sorry about the dad “joke”) is ongoing as it continues efforts to clear its inventory as part of turnaround efforts and Apple loses $1 billion a year on television streaming service (The Times, Emma Powell) highlights ongoing weakness in this part of the business as Apple continues to be dwarfed by the likes of Netflix, Disney+ and Prime Video but it also, more importantly, saw slower-than-expected iPhone sales in Q1.

Meanwhile, FedEx Cuts Outlook, Despite Higher Profit, Sales (Wall Street Journal, Connor Hart) shows that the package-shipping company is seeing weak demand for B2B shipments thanks to economic uncertainty and cut its outlook for the year accordingly. This gloomy outlook came despite a reasonable performance in Q3.

Then in London’s Heathrow airport closes after nearby fire cuts power (Financial Times, William Sandlund) we see that our busiest airport is in a lot of trouble due to a fire in a nearby electrical substation that has caused a massive power outage. It will be closed until midnight today. I’m sure that there will be a lot of updates on this today…

I thought I’d end the week on a bit of comedy with Jen Brister telling us what it’s like to have a Spanish mum. My mum is Japanese – and although this is obviously different, I can very much relate 😂. Warning – very very mild adult humour…it was either this or a video on French baguette etiquette and I thought you’d find this more entertaining 😁

In war and defence news, US could take over Ukrainian nuclear power plants, Donald Trump tells Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Financial Times, Felicia Schwartz, Christopher Miller, Polina Ivanova and Richard Milne) highlights the latest idea floated by Trump in that if the Americans did that, it would be an incentive for Russia not to attack again (but I wouldn’t trust either side to stick to this!). Meanwhile, EU to exclude US, UK and Turkey from €150bn rearmament fund (Financial Times, Henry Foy and Lucy Fisher) shows that the three countries could be excluded from a new EU defence fund unless they sign defence agreements with the bloc. Talks between London and Brussels have dragged because negotiations have been part of a wider agreement that encompasses other controversial issues like fishing rights and migration. British defence suppliers ‘dangerously reliant’ on foreign banks (Daily Telegraph, Michael Bow) highlights another tricky situation regarding defence, according to former defence secretary Grant Shapps. According to stats from Dealogic, the UK’s biggest four lenders (Lloyds, Barclays, HSBC and NatWest) have arranged just $13bn out of $51bn in debt funding for the British defence sector over the last ten years. US banks raised $17bn and European ones raised $11bn in comparison while Canadian and Asian banks raised the rest. UK banking sources, however, pushed back on this assessment and said that Dealogic’s figures may not be showing the whole picture. TBH, I don’t think that this is a massive issue but it’s worth Shapps rattling the banks’ cages…

Fed cuts US growth forecasts and holds interest rates (The Times, Mehreen Khan) shows that the Fed has reined in its growth forecasts due to the expected impact of Trump’s tariffs, which are widely expected to push inflation higher. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the 4.25-4.5% range, adding that there was no need “to be in a hurry to adjust our policy” and that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased”. * SO WHAT? * This is going to be frustrating for Trump because he wants interest rates to come down. Interest rate cuts are generally good for markets and good for business because they make borrowing cheaper, which means that they are more likely to invest. The problem is that Trump is spreading so much panic and uncertainty with his uneven dishing out of tariffs that businesses will be finding it hard to make plans.

Back in the UK, Reeves will not raise taxes in Spring Statement, say officials (Financial Times, George Parker and Sam Fleming) shows that the chancellor is already trying to calm fears ahead of next week’s Spring Statement by saying that she won’t raise taxes. Instead, she will cut public spending. We won’t have long to find out more detail but this news may come as welcome relief to some (at least until the next Budget!).

In EU accuses Google and Apple of breaking its rules, risking Trump clash (The Guardian, Rob Davies) we see that the European Commission has accused US tech companies Google and Apple of breaching rules in the Digital Markets Act, which means that they could be fined 10% of worldwide revenues, or 20% if they keep breaking the rules. The EC said that Google’s search engine prioritises its own services and that Google Play prevents developers from pointing customers towards other channels. It said that Apple must make its operating systems available on devices made by competitors. All of this is designed to promote competition. * SO WHAT? * Trump and Big Tech like to frame this as a witch-hunt of successful American companies driven by jealousy. Trump has said that any regulatory action against US companies will be met with more tariffs on foreign goods. This could get messy!

In chip news, Nvidia to spend hundreds of billions on US supply chain over next 4 years, says chief (Financial Times, Tim Bradshaw and Michael Acton) shows that the company is planning on spending around half a trillion dollars on chips and other electronics manufactured in the US over the next four years in an effort to tilt the supply chain away from Asia and towards the US to appease Trump. A wise move!

In other tech news, SoftBank expands AI portfolio with $6.5bn Ampere deal (Financial Times, David Keohane) shows that SoftBank has agreed to buy chip start-up Ampere Computing for $6.5bn as part of the company’s push into AI. Ampere makes processors for cloud computing and data centre applications based on Arm’s technology. Arm itself is going to launch its own chip later on this year. Sounds like a decent enough acquisition from a strategic stand-point!

Then in CoreWeave looks to raise up to $2.7bn in IPO (Financial Times, Tabby Kinder and George Steer) we see that the much-talked about data centre operator CoreWeave is looking to raise up to $2.7bn in an IPO that could start to kick into gear this week with an investor roadshow. * SO WHAT? * This could be the biggest US tech listing so far this year. The business originally started off as a crypto miner in 2017 but then pivoted to AI two years later as it became a major buyer of Nvidia’s GPUs. It now leases out its computing power to the likes of Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta and IBM.

In Crypto Exchange Kraken Nears $1.5 Billion Deal for Futures Trading Business (Wall Street Journal, Lauren Thomas) we see that the crypto exchange is on the verge of buying NinjaTrader, a US retail futures trading platform as part of a broader effort to diversify its user base and asset classes in which it operates. * SO WHAT? * Given the increasingly crypto-friendly Trump administration, it sounds like Kraken is surfing the wave of crypto feelgood! It is rare for crypto companies to make big deals like this – and this one would rank as one of the biggest in the industry if it went ahead.

Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank to axe 2,000 more jobs (Financial Times, Florian Muller) highlights the latest round of cuts for the German bank that will hit its retail division. This is part of the overall effort to rein in costs and boost profitability and will involve branch closures and cuts will mainly be in Germany. Deutsche Bank’s pain continues…

Then in Prudential’s profit growth muted by China slowdown (Financial Times, Lee Harris) we see that the Asia-focused insurer saw new business profits rise but overall but the mainland China and Hong Kong business proved to be a drag on its profits.

M&G enjoys fruits of cost-cutting drive with higher profit target (The Times, Ben Martin) highlights robust results from the asset manager and insurer that was originally spun out of Prudential in 2019 thanks to cost cutting efforts bearing fruit.

EY cuts jobs in pullback from UK legal sector (Financial Times, Suzi Ring and Ellesheva Kissin) shows that the Big Four accountant has decided to restructure its legal business. It will pull back from previous lofty ambitions to provide broader legal services in order to focus on corporate law, company secretarial, tax litigation and immigration. * SO WHAT? * EY started its push into legal services back in 2014, a few years after the law changed to allow non-lawyers to own and manage law firms and lawyers via an Alternative Business Structure (ABS). TBF, EY’s had all sorts of problems over the last two years, including the disastrous vote on whether it should separate its auditing and consultancy businesses so it’s not that surprising that it’s reviewing its legal business as well.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, BYD’s 5-minute charge: is time running out for electric-vehicle rivals? (Financial Times, Edward White, Kana Inagaki, Gloria Li and Song Jung-a) takes a closer look at BYD’s latest technological advance to shock the industry – its new refuelling tech that will charge its EVs in the same time it takes for a conventional car to get refuelled – around 5 minutes. This comes just a month after it announced another major tech development – that its “God’s Eye” advanced driver-assistance system would be made available on all of its models as standard. The new charging tech will mean that 400km of range can be added in just five minutes! This has apparently been made possible by a more advanced battery cooling system than western rivals. * SO WHAT? * BYD rival, Tesla, is way behind as the best its supercharger system can manage is adding 320km in 15 minutes. Mercedes-Benz just unveiled an all-new electric CLA compact sedan that can get 325km’s worth of juice in 10 minutes, a similar range to a new type of battery from BMW. Chinese battery specialist CATL said last year that its Shenxing Plus battery could get up to 600km of range with just 10 minutes of charging. Advancing Chinese technology is going to make life much more difficult for Korean makers in particular. From the driver’s perspective, though, it looks like range anxiety will soon be a minor consideration…

Tesla continues to hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons as Elon Musk decries ‘violent terrorism’ as Teslas hit by Molotov cocktails (Daily Telegraph, Chris Price) shows that there have been further attacks on Tesla showrooms and cars in America, something Musk blamed on “hatred and violence from the Left” and Tesla’s Cybertruck has become the world’s most hated car – Maga loves it (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) chronicles attacks on Cybertrucks during

New Orleans’ Mardi Gras festival. The event’s marshalls were being transported in the vehicles, which were attacked. They had to keep the doors locked because they were scared of getting dragged out. * SO WHAT? * As for the Cybertruck, it’s not as if other markets can come to the rescue. It’s not road legal in Britain or on the Continent because its sharp edges put it in breach of European safety regulations. I really do think that, at some point, Musk is going to have to distance himself from Tesla because his association with it seems to be doing more harm than good.

Back home, UK house prices rise widening gap with flats (The Times, Tom Howard) cites the latest research from Halifax which shows that house prices have been outpacing those of flats over the last year. Homes offering more space are now boosting demand. meanwhile, UK consumer confidence edges upwards, says BRC (The Times, Jack Barnett) cites the latest BRC survey which shows that consumer confidence turned up slightly over the last month on more optimistic expectations for personal finances and retail spending. This echoed the findings of the most recent GfK consumer confidence survey index. We’ll have to see what sort of effect next week’s Spring Statement will have on this fragile optimism!

Zara does not belong on the sales rack (Financial Times, Lex) is an interesting article that looks at its recent blip and subsequent panic selling by shareholders last week but observes that its clothing collections were being “well received” by shoppers. Inditex (the owner of Zara, Massimo Dutti and other brands) is a serial outperformer and so last week’s miss will have freaked some people out but its stores continue to trade well and it still has double-digit operating margins.

This video is a bit of camping/outdoor cookery ASMR. It’s a lot of hassle to go through for a posh sausage sandwich but I guess they don’t get Deliveroo at this place 😁. It is quite relaxing to watch this guy going about his business though!

In Vladimir Putin agrees 30-day halt to strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in call with Donald Trump (Financial Times, Max Seddon, James Politi, Polina Ivanova and Christopher Miller) we see that some progress has been made in Ukraine as Putin has ordered his military to stop targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days but he has not yet agreed to an unconditional ceasefire. This is slow progress and it seems to me like Putin is the least motivated party to make a quick deal. However, it is progress.

Meanwhile, Germany’s parliament approves Friedrich Merz’s €1tn spending plan (Financial Times, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany) shows that Germany’s parliament approved incoming chancellor Merz’s plans to access up to €1tn to spend on the military and infrastructure by loosening Germany’s strict borrowing limit. It managed to get the two-thirds majority it needed and now needs to get the approval of Germany’s upper house this Friday…

So far, Trump’s economic moves have unnerved many around the world. Investors slash US equity holdings by most ever, BofA survey shows (Financial Times, Mari Novik, Ian Smith and Emily Herbert) cites Bank of America’s closely watched fund manager survey as showing that investors have made the “biggest ever” cut to their US equity allocations in March in a “bull crash” in sentiment (👀 look out for my definition of a “bull crash” in our social channels today 😁). Worries about stagflation and the global trade war are among the downers here and the month-on-month drop in investor sentiment is the biggest since Covid in March 2020. Conversely, allocations to European equities have shot up to their highest level since July 2021 – the biggest shift from US to European equities since 1999! Wall Street stocks slide as sell-off in tech shares picks up pace (Financial Times, George Steer and Mari Novik) shows that US stocks had steep falls yesterday, embodying those fears I just referred to above. That being said, a Fed report showed US industrial production rose by a lot more than analysts had been expecting. Although this may allay fears of a recession for now, the full effect of the “Trump drag” has not really kicked in yet…

There is another thing that has made the papers today – Is Donald Trump above the law? (Financial Times, Stefania Palma) which refers to Supreme Court Justice John Roberts making a rare statement to criticise Trump’s attack on American judges. Trump had suggested that a judge

whose conclusion he disagreed with should be impeached. Roberts didn’t name Trump, but said that the threats were “not an appropriate response” to rulings he didn’t agree with. * SO WHAT? * America’s judicial system has been under sustained attack recently as Trump continues to push the boundaries of what he can do. Yesterday, a federal judge in Maryland ruled that DOGE “likely violated the United States Constitution” in closing down the US Agency for International Development and a few days ago, US immigration officials apparently ignored a Massachusetts judge’s order and deported a Lebanese doctor after holding her in a Boston airport for 36 hours. If Trump continues to ignore court rulings, the country could be on a slippery slope because if officials stop following the law, the president could be inclined to ignore it completely.

Elsewhere, Donald Trump’s trade uncertainty pushes Bank of Japan to hold interest rates (Financial Times, Leo Lewis and Harry Dempsey) shows that Japan’s central bank decided unanimously to hold interest rates steady at the 0.5% mark after a two-day meeting. This had been widely expected and the Bank of Japan said that “high uncertainties” persisted on Japan’s economic activity and prices. Clearly, Japan is likely to be highly exposed to Trump’s tariffs, so it would be unwise to do anything rash at this stage…

Back in the UK, Reeves to squeeze public spending further in Spring Statement (Financial Times, George Parker and Sam Fleming) highlights the chancellor’s pronouncement yesterday that she would be cutting £5bn from the welfare bill. She is also looking to make additional cuts elsewhere. It looks unlikely at this stage that she will loosen her fiscal rules.

Then in VR headsets, yoga mats and pool sliders added to UK ‘inflation basket’ (The Guardian, Richard Partington) we see that the annual re-jig of what’s in the virtual basket of goods that helps us measure whether prices are going up or down has been made. VR headsets, yoga mates and men’s pool sliders are in while local newspaper ads, oven-ready gammon joints are out. * SO WHAT? * It’s always interesting to see what the changes are because the basket is supposed to reflect what people ACTUALLY buy. It is obviously important to keep track of this because these prices are the ones that decide the overall state of inflation. In this case, you could interpret this as reflecting VR becoming more part of our lives and the ongoing death of traditional newspapers.

In chip news, Chip sector supplier raises $3bn in Japan’s biggest IPO since 2018 (Financial Times, Harry Dempsey and David Keohane) we see that semiconductor materials group JX Advanced Metals had a nice little 2.8% bump up on its trading debut yesterday. The flotation raised $3bn in Japan’s biggest IPO in almost seven years! The money raised was even greater than that of October’s float of Tokyo Metro, Tokyo’s subway operator. * SO WHAT? * This is impressive but could have arguably been even more impressive had it not happened at a time when tech and AI stocks have come under pressure – first from the DeepSeek shock and then Trump’s tariff-brandishing.

Then in Nvidia’s Jensen Huang unveils superchip and General Motors tie-up (The Times, Louisa Clarence-Smith) we see that the advanced chip supremo yesterday announced a partnership with GM to integrate AI into its cars, factories and robots and unveiled the new Vera Rubin superchip. This chip will succeed the Grace Blackwell chips, which recently started to be shipped out in high volumes. * SO WHAT? * This is impressive stuff and Huang said that demand for GPUs from the top four cloud service providers is still increasing. This all sounds great, but that DeepSeek moment will have sowed the seed of doubt in the minds of many! Tariffs could also prove to be more problematic over time but I guess we’ll just have to wait and see…

Elsewhere in the world of AI, Anthropic set to focus on business users in search for new revenues (Financial Times, Cristina Criddle) shows that the start-up is on the verge of releasing a range of features focused on business users. It added that the revenue it’s getting from developers and enterprises via its application programming interface (API) is growing at double the rate of its consumer subscriptions! * SO WHAT? * The focus on business users sounds like a good move because although mass-market adoption is good for recognition, recognition doesn’t pay the bills! The company now has an implied valuation of over $60bn after its most recent funding round. Rivals are also trying to aim their products at a corporate audience – Microsoft has rolled out Co-Pilot across its Office productivity software and OpenAI is marketing ChatGPT enterprise, for instance – so it’s not going to have the market all to itself!

Then in Microsoft teams up with AI start-up to simulate brain reasoning (Financial Times, Michael Peel) we see that Microsoft has joined up with Swiss start-up Inait to develop an AI model that copies mammal brains’ powers of reasoning in a number of areas including financial trading and robotics. * SO WHAT? * This is notable because the model can learn from real-world experiences rather than picking up on correlations in historic data. Essentially, the model is trying to copy our brains! AI models based on brain simulations could potentially use less electricity and learn more quickly.

Why China is suddenly flooding the market with powerful AI models (Financial Times, June Yoon) is a really interesting article which suggests that China’s recent big AI model giveaway is about decentralising development and accessing global talent to refine their models. This means that models are continuously improving. * SO WHAT? * If open-source AI catches up with proprietary AI models, the proprietary models will be more difficult to monetise because customers will wonder why they’re paying for closed models if a free and equally decent alternative exists. If AI models reach this stage, it will nullify related restrictions in the US-China tech war.

Following on from what I said yesterday about Alphabet buying Wiz, Google’s $32bn cloud deal rests on hazy assumptions (Financial Times, Lex) suggests that Alphabet is paying a high price for Wiz while Google parent Alphabet agrees $3.2bn break fee in Wiz deal (Financial Times, Ivan Levingston, Oliver Barnes, James Fontanella-Khan and Arash Massoudi) highlights a 10% break clause in the deal as Wiz owners look to give themselves a safety net for if the whole deal collapses. * SO WHAT? * This deal is not expected to get a smooth ride from the regulators. This termination fee is among the biggest such fee ever! Usually they are about 2-3%, so 10% reflects a high risk of this deal not getting through!

In social media news, Elon Musk’s X obtains $44bn valuation in sharp turnaround (Financial Times, George Hammond, Tabby Kinder, Hanna Murphy and Eric Platt) shows that X’s valuation has returned to $44bn again showing just how far it’s come since Musk became Trump’s BFF-in-chief. * SO WHAT? * Remember, Musk bought Twitter for $44bn back in 2022, so this is a big moment. Research from Fidelity Investments in late September last year gave X an implied valuation of below $10bn, so the performance since then is impressive! Although advertisers abandoned X because of its increasingly lax approach to policing its content, Musk’s status in the White House has brought many crawling back. There are some interesting things coming for the company as well – for instance, X is working closely with xAI to integrate its AI tech into the platform that will enable better ad targeting.

Then in French music streamer Deezer breaks even for first time (Financial Times, Daniel Thomas) we see that the streamer reported upbeat results yesterday evening as it said that it had seen revenues increase by 12% last year. It broke even for the first time in the second half of the year. Deezer wants to launch new tech to provide a more personalised experience. * SO WHAT? * The company said that now it is cashflow positive, it will be more able to “invest in research and in developing the right solution to build a long-term path for growth and profitability”. The tech company was founded in 2007.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, First-time buyers move further out of London as property costs bite (Financial Times, Valentina Romei) cites the latest ONS figures which show that first-time buyers are increasingly looking beyond London versus first-timers ten years ago thanks to affordability challenges. The stats showed that first-time buyer mortgage sales had been “falling in London” but had “risen in more rural areas”. * SO WHAT? * When you consider that the average first home now costs a whopping ten times the average salary in some parts of London, it’s no wonder this exodus is happening!

Then in ‘Magic circle’ law firm ties bonuses to office working (The Times, Jonathan Ames) we see that A&O Shearman has officially warned junior lawyers that their bonuses could at least partly depend on their office attendance record. * SO WHAT? * The company is just the latest firm to adopt a less subtle approach to encouraging people back to the office! Those days of Goldman Sachs trying to entice employees back to the office with free food and ice cream seem long gone don’t they! It was always going to happen.

There is some impressive talent at airports these days! Have a look at this! Impressive ! Fun fact: I used to play both the piano 🎹 and the violin 🎻 but haven’t played either for years 😭.

In Israel launches Gaza strikes in biggest attack since ceasefire (Financial Times, Steff Chavez and James Politi) we see that Israel launched “extensive strikes” in Gaza, which health authorities in Gaza said resulted in 131 deaths (although more recent reports say this number is much higher). Netanyahu said the strike was in response to Hamas’s “repeated refusal to release our hostages”. So much for peace…

Regarding the Ukraine war, UK expects more than 30 countries to join Ukrainian ceasefire coalition (Financial Times, George Parker, Lucy Fisher and Henry Foy) shows that over 30 countries are expected to join “the coalition of the willing” to ensure lasting peace in Ukraine, although not all of them are willing to go as far as sending troops. They are still pushing for a US military “backstop”.

As a result of the uptick in defence spending, Asian defence stocks soar to record highs as Europe prepares to re-arm (Financial Times, William Sandlund, Harry Dempsey and Song Jung-a) shows that Japanese defence stocks (including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, IHI, KHI and Japan Steel Works) and South Korean defence stocks (including Hanwha Aerospace, Hyundai Rotem and Korea Aerospace Industries) have boomed considerably so far this year. * SO WHAT? * Europe has lost production capacity over the years as a result of the break-up of the Soviet Union and Japan’s pacifist constitution (imposed by the Americans after WW2) has also blunted Japanese capability but South Korea has always kept its capacity because it recognises the need to be able to produce weapons at scale at relatively short notice given its northern neighbour. I would have thought that this will mean that the Koreans will benefit most strongly from the recent uptick in spending as they should be able to scale up quicker than everyone else in the short to medium term.

Meanwhile, Missile maker MBDA takes more calls from EU militaries seeking non-US weapons (Financial Times, Leila Abboud and Sylvia Pfeifer) shows that the European missile maker has been seeing a growth in inquiries from the region’s militaries as everyone is coming to the realisation that America can’t be relied on defensively any more. At the moment, the company makes missiles for French, British and Italian armies, among others. The company is 37.5% owned by BAE Systems, 37.5% by Airbus and the rest by Italy’s Leonardo. * SO WHAT? * This shift is going to take time but I think that the US has lost European trust forever. Given the gravity of the situation we are in and the way in which Trump has decimated the Transatlantic bond that had been built up over eight decades in such a public and humiliating way, it will take many decades to get it back (if it ever does return to what it was). If Trump thought he’d get more spending from the Europeans as they increased their defence budgets, he may not quite get what he bargained for…

On the other hand, Qinetiq shares drop 20% on UK and US defence delays (The Times, Martin Strydom and Helen Cahill) highlights a surprise development as British defence company Qinetiq released an unscheduled trading update yesterday. It said that full year revenues and profits will fall below expectations and it took a £140m impairment charge on its US business in addition to slashing its sales outlook. * SO WHAT? * When rivals are doing so well, such an announcement is going to cause a lot of shock but as the lumpy charge relates to a restructuring of the company’s US defence business, you would hope that this is all a one-off and that there will be better things to come. After all, how can a defence company do badly in today’s circumstances??

Donald Trump’s trade war will damage global growth, OECD warns (Financial Times, Sam Fleming) cites the latest OECD report which blames its forecast reductions for twelve G20 members on Trump’s trade war. It added that it believes that global growth will also slow down this year and next as a consequence of his actions. Unsurprisingly, the biggest forecast reductions were for Canada and Mexico. How Trump could destroy his own political movement (Financial Times, Gideon Rachman) takes the theme on and suggests that as Trump won’t be called to account until the midterm elections and has surrounded himself with yes-men, he is likely to be able to do what he likes and cause damage completely unfettered. Trump targets lawyers in ‘chilling’ attempt to silence critics (Daily Telegraph, Louis Gross) underlines Trump’s petulance as he signed an executive order that has effectively blocked law firm Perkins Coie from working for the US government because he said that it worked for “activist donors including George Soros” to “politically overturn…popular laws” and for assisting in the compilation of a “false dossier designed to steal an election”. This dossier was written by Christopher Steele, former head of MI6’s Russia desk, and alleged that Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign was supported by Putin. The dossier claimed that the Kremlin held compromising material on Trump, but the FBI was unable to substantiate any of the allegations. Last week, Trump issued an executive order targeting Paul Weiss, calling for the removal of security clearances for its role in

bringing lawsuits against participants in the Jan 6th riots and links to the investigation into the whole Stormy Daniels thing. Young Americans lose trust in the state (Financial Times, Valentina Romei) cites some Gallup polls which found less than a third of the under-30s in the US trust the government. * SO WHAT? * It seems to me that Trump is sweeping away anyone that gets in his way and that can call him to account. I believe that this is highly dangerous and if he causes Americans and American companies to be alienated due to his actions, America will become a massive echo chamber, amplified by its own social media.

In other news, Donald Trump says China’s Xi Jinping to visit US in ‘not too distant future’ (Financial Times, Demetri Sevastopulo) shows that a potential meeting between the two is thought to be getting nearer, although there were no further details to be shared at this stage and Carney plays down prospect of major confrontation between Canada and US (Financial Times, George Parker, Ilya Gridneff and Adrienne Klasa) shows that sounds like he’s dialling back the anti-Trump rhetoric for the moment although he did say that Trump would have to give up on his threat to annex Canada before he would consider any talks.

Elsewhere, Chinese economy shows positive signs despite Trump tariffs (The Times, Jack Barnett) highlights some important data points including retail sales (which were higher in the January/February period verses last year), factory output (which was up, but the period covered came before Trump’s tariffs) and prices for new homes (which fell). * SO WHAT? * It seems to me that China has problems both domestically (supply is greater than demand, which makes for a deflationary environment) and internationally (thanks to existing and soon-to-be-implemented tariffs). IMO the Chinese government can take some actions to improve domestic demand but it really needs to sort out its international strategy to ensure longer term sustainable growth. It’ll be interesting to see what effect Trump’s tariffs have as time goes on…

Putin lets western investors sell some Russian shares ahead of Trump talks (Financial Times, Joseph Cotterill and Daria Mosolova) shows that Putin is allowing a group of western asset managers and hedge funds to sell Russian securities that they couldn’t get access to in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the day before Putin is supposed to have talks with Trump. * SO WHAT? * Not long after Putin invaded Ukraine, Putin issued a decree banning international investors from trading shares or bonds of Russian banks and energy companies. Any transactions had to get the approval of Russian authorities. Western owners of stocks including Norilsk Nickel, VTB Bank and Rosneft were then left in the lurch, unable to access their holdings.

In trade/tariff news, EU to probe aluminium imports diverted by Donald Trump’s tariffs (Financial Times, Andy Bounds) shows that the European Commission is launching an investigation into the aluminium market to protect the bloc’s aluminium industry from imports that were destined for the US but are now ending up in Europe. The main exporters of the metal are the UAE, Russia and India. * SO WHAT? * This is coming at a delicate time because I would have thought that demand for the metal will be rising as part of the whole defence sector frenzy (they need aluminium, right?) but at the same time the EU wants to protect EU businesses from imports flooding in and effectively putting European makers out of business. However, they don’t to push the aluminium price up too much otherwise that will affect many industries. This is going to be a tricky one to solve.

Back home, UK trade minister seeks to fend off threat of US tariffs (Financial Times, George Parker and Aime Williams) shows that UK trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds is going to try to find a delicate balance between avoiding punitive US tariffs whilst at the same time successfully implementing our digital services tax which generally targets Big Tech, something that Trump doesn’t like. * SO WHAT? * Britain brought in the 2% digital services tax in April 2020 which targets the revenues of search engines, social media platforms and online marketplaces which earn money from UK users. The idea behind the tax was that it makes big tech companies pay the tax for where they actually make their money. Companies have been declaring low profits in the UK by shifting them to other lower-tax countries. Negotiations could be tricky and I’m not sure whether Reynolds has got the gravitas to do this.

Following on from the chancellor’s stated crackdown on them, UK regulators to face twice-yearly reviews as Reeves vows to slash red tape (The Guardian, Heather Stewart and Helena Horton) shows that, as part of the chancellor’s crackdown on regulators, they will have to undergo twice-yearly performance reviews to ensure they are doing all they can to be “growth-friendly” and Treasury to launch review of Financial Ombudsman Service (The Times, Patrick Hosking) shows that the “quasi-regulator” is also facing scrutiny. Tough times if you’re a regulator!

In BYD Shares Touch All-Time High After Unveiling New Charging Tech (Wall Street Journal, Jiahui Huang) we see that BYD’s share price rose by up to 6% in Hong Kong after the company unveiled its new fast-charging tech and an employee share incentive plan. The company said that the new charging tech can provide 400km of range in just five minutes! * SO WHAT? * This is momentous because this is about the same time as it takes to refuel conventional cars. The new tech will be available for two new models – the Han L sedan and Tang L SUV – which will go on sale next month. Things like this will make buying Chinese-made EVs increasingly compelling!

Then in Audi to cut 7,500 jobs amid ‘challenging’ switch to EVs (Daily Telegraph, Alex Singleton) we see that Audi is looking to cut 7,500 jobs – about 8% of its workforce – by 2029 as it adapts to the switch to electrification. This is part of a broader push to save €1bn a year. The company says it is going to try to do this in a “socially responsible” manner without the need for compulsory redundancies. This is just the latest bad news to hit the German automotive industry.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Google parent Alphabet in talks to buy cyber security group Wiz for $30bn (Financial Times, Ivan Levingston, George Hammond and Oliver Barnes) shows that there’s a big deal in the offing as tech giant Alphabet is looking to buy cyber security start-up Wiz for a hefty sum in what will be the company’s biggest ever acquisition. Talks actually took place last year but they broke down over Wiz’s concerns about antitrust issues. Wiz is one of the fastest-growing software start-ups in history.

In Ikea to open Oxford Street store in May after 18-month delay (The Guardian, Sarah Butler) we see that the Swedish furniture giant will now open on Oxford Street from 1st May after a major delay. It will contain a 130-seat Swedish deli and showrooms in addition to one-to-one design consultations. A new Space NK is set to open next door. * SO WHAT? * This is all part of Ikea’s push to diversify away from out-of-town big-box stores and get closer to the customers. Planners will be hoping that this has a halo effect and attracts other tenants to an area that has been losing its lustre of late.

Elsewhere in retail, Tesco, Sainsbury’s and M&S shares take £4bn hit amid Asda price war fears (The Guardian, Sarah Butler) shows that fears of an Asda-instigated price war hit the share prices of its rivals. Asda indicated that it would invest more in cutting prices and putting more people in its shops. * SO WHAT? * It’s only my opinion but I don’t think price reductions are enough to stem Asda’s slide. It’s an OK measure that can be quickly implemented for sure but I think that it has to have a deeper think about where it is in the supermarket pecking order and whether it should conduct a much more comprehensive overhaul. The “cheap-and-cheeful” niche it used to occupy is now firmly occupied with Aldi and Lidl so I think it has to come up with a stronger identity.

Following on from what I said last week about about Latham & Watkins, Kirkland & Ellis partners pocket $9mn (Financial Times, Suzi Ring) shows that the world’s highest-grossing law firm managed to hit a new revenue record thanks to a rebound in dealmaking. Given Trump’s effect on markets, you do wonder whether the expected uptick in M&A activity is going to be delayed…

I found this the other day and sent it to a few friends because I thought it was hilarious. Parents who have read the classic children’s book “The Tiger Who Came To Tea” will particularly appreciate this Gen Z translation 🤣. Is this really how Gen Z speak on a regular basis??

US says Trump and Putin to speak in next few days on Russia-Ukraine war (Financial Times, Stefania Palma) shows that the two leaders are set to hold a call about the Ukraine war this Tuesday. It sounds like a deal is getting closer, but you can never tell!

Meanwhile, Donald Trump shock pushes neutral Swiss to seek closer defence ties (Financial Times, Mercedes Ruehl) highlights a rather surprising turn of events in Switzerland as the incoming defence minister is pro-NATO and has voiced the need for more co-operation (even though he’s stopped short of expressing a wish to become a member). * SO WHAT? * Clearly, things are getting so bad now that even the neutral Swiss are getting a bit antsy about Europe’s security. This is a major deal and there is a palpable sense of urgency, but a permanent shift away from neutrality could take years to execute…

Then in China unveils plan to ‘vigorously boost’ weak consumption (Financial Times, Thomas Hale and Joe Leahy) we see that China has announced a plan to boost domestic consumption in order to get the economy out of the rut it’s been in for so long. The plan will focus on increasing incomes, bringing stability to the real estate sector and stock markets whilst also boosting medical and pension services. * SO WHAT? * The sentiment sounds great, but we’ve been here many times before and there weren’t any details. As usual, markets got a little bump up on this positive announcement, but I have to say that until we see a proper co-ordinated plan with enough oomph I don’t think anything’s going to happen. There will supposedly be more details announced this afternoon.

Back home, ‘Ominous’ sign as UK manufacturing output falls in first quarter (The Times, Mehreen Khan) shows that manufacturing output weakened in Q1 for the first time since 2016 thanks to growing global trade tensions and increasing business taxes. * SO WHAT? * This weakening is concerning because Q1 is usually stronger than the Q4 period that comes just before it. Manufacturers are facing the prospect of higher wage bills, rising employment taxes and an uncertain global trading environment marred by tariff wars.

Nine in 10 councils in England to levy maximum council tax increase (The Guardian, Phillip Inman) heralds potentially more pressure on household incomes to come as 88% of upper-tier local authorities are set to increase council tax by the maximum permissible amount, 4.99%, for the third year in a row. Council leaders say this is necessary after over a decade of funding cuts. Six English councils have been given special permission to impose increases of up to 10% in order to swerve bankruptcy!

In investment trends, Green energy stocks fall back to levels last seen 5 years ago (Financial Times, Rachel Millard) shows that green energy stocks in the S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index have lost five years of gains thanks to wavering political support for the green energy transition. The Index tracks the performance of major clean energy companies and has fallen by 16% in the last 12 months. I guess this just reflects wider unease with a sector that surfed the ESG wave so successfully for so long…

Then in Gold hits $3,000 for first time on global growth fears (Financial Times, Leslie Hook) we see that gold broke the $3,ooo per troy ounce barrier on Friday as threats to global growth prompted by Trump’s trade war continued to push investors into buying safe haven assets. Gold has been one of the world’s best performing assets this year – it’s up 14% already. Gold broke $1,000 per troy ounce in March 2008, $2,000 during Covid and now $3,000! There has been a big upswing in buying gold bars that are then shipped to New York – over $70bn worth has been flown into New York since Trump came to office this year because there are rising concerns that Trump could slap taxes on gold bullion.

End of ‘blank cheque’ era for outside consultants in Saudi Arabia (Financial Times, Chloe Cornish, Andrew England and Ellesheva Kissin) potentially heralds the end of easy-pickings for consultants in Saudi Arabia as Riyadh is now reining in spending after the massive bonanza of the last few years. Consultants have been raking it in over the last few years in particular with the massive push into infrastructure. According to industry research group Source Global, the consultancy market grew by 38% in 2022 and 25% in 2023 but is likely to slow down significantly to 13/14% in 2024. Riyadh is now dealing with weaker oil prices and the reality of its enormous investment commitments. * SO WHAT? * The likes of McKinsey, BCG and Bain have been making a ton of money as the kingdom has sought out advice for Neom and its cutting-edge skyscraper city but there’s now a feeling that they’ve been ripped off and a large dose of reality is needed to calm things down. There is still a lot of money to be made (because there are still a lot of major projects in progress like the Asian Winter Games in 2029 and the World Cup in 2034) but the frenzied time of the last few years is coming to a screeching halt as ministries get increasingly picky. They want value for money!

Back in the UK, Reeves to restrict UK competition watchdog’s merger investigations (Financial Times, Jim Pickard, Suzi Ring and Martin Arnold) shows that the chancellor is due today to update the two main tests that decide whether the CMA should get involved in a merger. She wants this simplified as part of an overarching plan to facilitate economic growth and bring down related hurdles. The two tests are the “share of supply” test, which triggers an investigation if the resulting company would control 25% of the supply of goods and services in a market. The second test is one of “material influence” which can give the antitrust regulator power over purchases of specific interests in a business even if this doesn’t strictly constitute full control. * SO WHAT? * The idea is that it will be easier for businesses to ascertain with more certainty whether they will attract regulatory scrutiny. It will also limit the scope of the CMA, which has been criticised for being too interventionalist. This should in theory ease the way for more M&A. I guess we just need steadier markets and some economic certainty first, though!

In consumer news, US shoppers cut spending as economic outlook concerns mount (Financial Times, Gregory Meyer) cites research from RetailNext, a consultancy, which shows that footfall is dropping and consumers are cutting back on spending at retailers. University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index showed a third consecutive monthly decline as inflation expectations rose – and even Trump himself hasn’t ruled out the possibility of a recession.

Back home in the UK property market, Buyers property market looms in UK amid record numbers of homes for sale (The Guardian, Julia Kollewe) cites the latest from Rightmove which

shows that those who will miss the stamp duty deadline in England will benefit from a flood of properties going on the market this spring. * SO WHAT? * If this flood of properties materialises, then prices will have to be more competitive in order to shift. There’s a backlog of 575,000 moves going through the legal completion process but on the plus side, buyers are now benefitting from the widest choice of properties at this time of the year since 2015!

Staying with this theme, Buy-to-let firms become biggest single type of business in UK, data shows (The Guardian, Julia Kollewe) highlights an interesting move as there are now four times the number of buy-to-let firms registered at Companies House than fast-food outlets or hairdressers! This is because a number of smaller landlords are registering as companies to avoid having to pay the higher taxes they would have to pay as individuals.

In employment-related news, US companies drop DEI from annual reports as Trump targets corporate values (Financial Times, Eva Xiao, Taylor Nicole Rogers and Clara Murray) shows that hundreds of US companies have now ditched references to DEI from their annual reports as they try to stay onside with Trump. Out of the 400 top companies in the S&P Index, 90% of those that have filed an annual report since Trump got elected have cut references to DEI to at least some degree, with some going further and taking it out completely. * SO WHAT? * FWIW, I would like to think that companies will keep at least some of the values they espoused previously – but this DOES send a message and it DOES give companies a free-er rein to do what they see fit.

Meanwhile, France’s jobs market faces ‘tipping point’ as growth falters (Financial Times, Leila Abboud and Delphine Strauss) shows that official data continues to reflect the worsening state of the labour market in France. Youth joblessness is rising but it is still in a better state than it was pre-Macron. Some are now worried that things could get worse from here and households are getting increasingly concerned that unemployment will rise. Corporate bankruptcies are on the up and lay-offs at major companies are occurring with more frequency.

Back home, Fall in hiring suggests a slowdown ‘only seen during a recession’ (The Times, Mehreen Khan) cites the conclusions of the Resolution Foundation thinktank which made the rather gloomy conclusion that the recent 0.5% fall in employment over the year to January is of a magnitude “only seen during a recession”. * SO WHAT? * The thing is that the increase in NICs and minimum wage haven’t hit yet. I’m thinking that there will be a few months of proper downturn as the increases ACTUALLY hit home but then there could be a consolidation as the new regime becomes the “new normal”. However, a lot will also depend on the global macro situation and what happens in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Tech firm Baidu unveils DeepSeek competitor in AI launch (The Times, Lauren Almeida) highlights Chinese tech giant Baidu’s release of two new AI models. It claims that its Ernie X1 model delivered “performance on a par with DeepSeek R1 at only half the price” and has “stronger understanding, planning, reflection and evolution capabilities”. The other model is the upgraded version of the existing model and is called Ernie 4.5. It now has better language ability, understanding, generation, logic and memory as well as higher emotional intelligence! Both Ernie models will be “open source” from June 30th. Sounds impressive!

Spotify cranks up the profit dial (Financial Times, Lex) highlights progress from the streamer as it announced last week that it had paid out over $10bn in royalties versus $9bn the year before. The interesting thing here, though, is that royalties as a percentage of total revenues fell from around 63% to 59%. Raising subscription fees has helped with this and it is worth noting that the

rises did not deter new subscribers. * SO WHAT? * This is impressive and the focus on profitability is certainly paying off! Spotify’s market value doubled over the course of last year and has increased by another 16% since the beginning of January. The question is whether it will be able to keep such momentum going as costs have been cut and subscription price increases have been made.

Back home, UK to crack down on illegal content across social media (Financial Times, Daniel Thomas) shows that Ofcom is going to start enforcing new rules for social media groups, search engines and messaging apps to bring in strict measures that will remove illegal material swiftly and cut the negative impact of such content. The Online Safety Act will kick in from next week and Ofcom will begin enforcement action for non-compliance. Larger sites and apps will come under more immediate scrutiny.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, there’s a lot of “anti-Musk” things going on as per ‘Deeply uncomfortable’: UK Starlink users switch off over Musk’s political machinations (The Guardian, Ben Quinn) which says that existing users are leaving Starlink and new users aren’t taking it up because of Musk’s foray into politics, Democrats train fire on Musk as unelected billionaire dips in popularity (The Guardian, Lauren Gambino) shows that a potential new focus from DOGE an its “unelected billionaire” on social security, Medicaid and Medicare is uniting Musk detractors. Then in Musk forced to halt Cybertruck deliveries as parts fall off (Daily Telegraph, Christopher Jasper) we see that Tesla’s having to suspend sales of the Cybertruck due to concerns about metal panels falling off 😱😱😱! Not a good look at all…

In retail news, Fast-Fashion Retailer Forever 21 Files for Bankruptcy in the U.S. (Wall Street Journal, Kimberley Kao) shows that the American fast fashion retailer has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy but will stay open during the wind-down process. Locations outside the US are not covered, but the whole company has suffered from the onslaught of Shein and Temu.

Meanwhile, John Lewis sends staff a glum message about UK retail (Financial Times, Lex) follows on from last week’s news about the profits boom and decision not to give the staff a bonus this year – and reiterates that although profits were up, the company itself is still in the early stages of a recovery so doling out a bonus right now would not be a good idea. The company can’t hold off on this forever though!

Some of this food just looks ridiculous! Schnitzel Heaven?? The baignets?? I have been to that pub at the end of this Short – as the tide was coming in! It certainly adds a little something to an otherwise fairly mundane pursuit…

In Vladimir Putin sets tough conditions for Ukraine ceasefire (Financial Times, Max Seddon and Felicia Schwartz) we see that Putin is cautiously supportive of a ceasefire but isn’t sounding particularly accommodative. I highlighted what Russia wants and what Ukraine wants in yesterday’s edition. It looks like things are inching in the right direction, but at a glacial pace.

Meanwhile, Judges order US government to rehire thousands of workers (Financial Times, Joe Miller and Steff Chavez) highlights a bit of a blow for Trump/Musk/DOGE as two federal judges have ordered the government to take back at least 24,000 probationary employees across 19 federal agencies. They found that the mass-firing had breached the rules governing such actions. * SO WHAT? * This follows on from a case earlier this month where the Supreme Court upheld an order to force the government to pay $2bn worth of foreign aid contracts that the government had been trying to cancel. It seems to me that the courts are the only ones with the ability to hold back the Trump/Musk onslaught (at least for the moment).

Donald Trump threatens 200% tariff on EU wine and champagne (The Guardian, Jasper Jolly and Angelique Chrisafis) shows Trump in full-on threat mode as he said he’d impose a massive tariff on EU wine and champagne in retaliation for a “nasty” 50% tax on American bourbon whiskey announced by the EU. This, in turn, was part of the €26bn tariff response by the EU to America’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. Alcoholic beverage makers such as Pernod Ricard and Rémy Cointreau saw their share prices fall but Wall Street’s S&P 500 tumbles into ‘correction’ on fresh Donald Trump tariff threats (Financial Times, George Steer, Mari Novik and Leslie Hook) highlights more Wall Street weakness and gold hitting a record high in trading yesterday as investors expressed their thoughts on more Trump tariffs and scepticism about peace in Ukraine. The S&P is now in correction territory (because its value has fallen by 10% from its recent peak) and the gold price continued its upward trajectory as investors sought out a safe haven. The gold price has now climbed by 14% this year!

Tesla raises alarm about Trump tariffs despite Musk’s White House role (Daily Telegraph, Alex Singleton) shows that the company has sent a letter to US trade representative Jamieson Greer saying that Trump’s tariff regime could make it much harder to source parts at an affordable price. The company said that US exporters were “exposed to disproportionate impacts when other countries respond to US trade actions”. Protests against Elon Musk’s Tesla spread across Britain (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) shows that there is increasing hostility being expressed towards the company in the form of violent and non-violent protests and Maga is tearing apart America’s offices (Daily Telegraph, Lucy Burton) shows that the whole MAGA movement is dividing people in their working environment as the government’s actions are proving to be highly polarising. It is starting to change workplace behaviour and embolden those against immigration. One example cites a real estate agent wrote on a bill for a waiter at a Mexican restaurant in Ohio “I hope Trump deports you!!!”. That customer was subsequently sacked and a GoFundMe for the waiter concerned hit £17,000. I think scenes will get uglier when tariffs filter down to prices at the supermarket and at the pump.

The Trump backlash offers Starmer a mainstream moment (Financial Times, Robert Shrimsley) is an interesting article which suggests that we could be nearing “peak populism” as the reality of Trump’s populist actions is damaging its appeal. Starmer is acknowledging the public’s desire to be tough on immigration, foreign aid and welfare spending whilst appealing to ordinary people and it is perhaps this which is behind the government’s push on planning, the NHS and welfare reform. * SO WHAT? * Starmer will need to build on the goodwill he has generated on the international front and replicate it on the domestic front by executing his vision effectively. It will be a tall order, but perhaps if Trump’s brand of populism fails he will find it easier to push his agenda without interference from the likes of Reform. On the other hand, if Trump’s tariffs and other policies succeed, populism could potentially become unstoppable IMO.

Keir Starmer to abolish NHS England (Financial Times, Lucy Fisher and Laura Hughes) highlights the PM’s announcement that NHS England, set up by David Cameron’s Conservatives in 2012, is to be abolished in order to cut bureaucracy, save money and bring the health system under state control. He believes that there were too many overlaps between NHS England and the Department of Health and Social Care. The key to the success of this move will be in the execution. No doubt the transition period will be pretty disruptive…

Elsewhere, Germany’s Friedrich Merz offers concessions to Greens over ‘historic’ spending plan (Financial Times, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany) shows that chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has offered concessions to the Green party ahead of the potential approval of his “historic” spending package reforms. The Greens have been threatening to torpedo his plans but he promised to allocate 10% of the proposed €500bn infrastructure plan to the green transition. Merz is racing to push his reforms through with the current parliament because there is a danger that the new parliament will block them. The MP’s vote on the spending package will be held next Tuesday to be followed by another vote on March 21st in the second chamber.

Then in BAE in early talks with Japanese groups to collaborate on drones for fighter jets (Financial Times, Harry Dempsey and Sylvia Pfeifer) we see that BAE Systems is looking at collaborating with Japanese companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries on a number of defence projects. They are talking about the development of low-cost drones that could potentially complement the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) which is being developed between the UK, Japan and Italy. The idea is that the drones would be able to work seamlessly with the fighter jet that BAE (from the UK), Leonardo (Italy) and a consortium led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) is developing. It is also interesting to hear that there are calls from a rival French programme – the Future Combat Air System – which is being developed by Airbus and Dassault Aviation, to work together to optimise budgets and share expertise. * SO WHAT? * Controversial though Trump’s actions have been so far, one good thing to come out of it all is the effect it has had on bringing Europe together. You just hope that all this initial willingness to work together doesn’t just slide off into oblivion. However, with the threat of Putin hanging in the air, the sense of urgency isn’t likely to dissipate any time soon IMO…

Dollar General Targets Higher Sales With Store Overhaul (Wall Street Journal, Dean Seal) shows that the US discount retailer is expecting higher sales for the next few years after closing down 96 underperforming stores over Q4. It is looking at refreshing existing outlets and opening 590 more over the course of this year. Although customer visits fell, those who made it into the shops bought more items and the retailer has noticed that there has been an uptick in the number of consumers trading down to buy its items. * SO WHAT? * If you believe that Trump’s policies are going to be inflationary and the “period of transition” that he refers to turns out to be longer than expected, then discounters stand to do very well – although they may have to be clever with their supply chains to ensure they minimise the hit they get from Trump’s tariffs.

Back home, John Lewis lost the middle classes to M&S. Now it’s fighting to win them back (Daily Telegraph, Hannah Boland) takes a look at the perennial battle between John Lewis and M&S, which is currently being won by an M&S that is in its “strongest health since 1997”. Waitrose’s boss argues that the grocer is making ground on its arch-rival but it certainly feels like M&S is much further along. John Lewis scraps bonus again despite £97m profit (The Times, Emma Taggart) highlights the company’s strong performance but also its decision to cancel the

staff bonus for the third consecutive year as its new CEO, Jason Tarry takes on the top job. He did, however, say “I am determined to pay a bonus as soon as we possibly can but that will depend on where we are at the time and the conditions we are facing”. * SO WHAT? * The tussle for supremacy between these two retailers goes back a very long way and it’s M&S that is very much the one with the upper hand at the moment. However, it really wasn’t that long ago that M&S fell out of the FTSE100 and was looking very lost. Over the last few years it has sorted its food business out with Ocado (although that’s not been without its ups and downs), completely transformed its fashion business by allowing a plethora of new brands to bump up their product line-up and they have offered up a range of new services. Next up for growth is the beauty businesses (both retailers have identified this as a growth area) and when you consider the failure of British department stores over the last few years it certainly seems like a logical gap in the market to fill. IMO, John Lewis is way behind at the moment because of the weak leadership it’s had to endure over the last few years but with a proper retailer now at the helm (the CEO is ex-Tesco) at least it stands a chance of making up ground. FWIW, I think that John Lewis might do better than M&S at beauty because the environment is more “department store-y”, but it will all depend on how such a strategy is executed.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, China’s obesity crisis is big business (Financial Times, Lex) highlights a huge window of opportunity for weight-loss drug makers in China, but one that will close on March 20th 2026. At the moment, over 50% of Chinese adults are overweight or obese – and that figure is expected to rise further. This means that there is an addressable market of almost 900m people that companies like Novo Nordisk are treating with drugs like Wegovy. Although it was only launched there in November 2024, Novo Nordisk’s revenues from China increased by 13% last year! Unfortunately for them, their patent on semaglitude (the main active ingredient) expires on March 20th 2026, upon which time local rivals will be itching to bash out their own versions at a fraction of the cost. Huadong Medicine and Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering are among the companies waiting in the wings – but there’s also a danger to Novo Nordisk that these Chinese companies will export their variations of the weight-loss drugs to places like India, limiting Novo’s potential there.

Closer to home, UK food and drink exports to the EU down 34% since Brexit (The Guardian, Joanna Partridge) cites the latest data from the Food and Drink Federation which shows that British food and drink exports to the EU have fallen sharply since Brexit although it seems that our whisky, chocolate and cheese are still popular there. * SO WHAT? * The EU accounts for 61.8% of exports and 75.6% of our imports in the food and drink sector so there is huge potential here if Starmer can do a deal with the EU in the current thawing of relations…

In Deliveroo makes its first full-year profit of £2.9m (The Times, Jessica Newman) we see that the takeaway delivery company managed to achieve its first full year of profit since it was founded 12 years ago, helped by rising sales and a better loyalty programme. However, investors expected more from the company’s plans to expand its margin, which explains why its share price weakened on the news. * SO WHAT? * I think that Deliveroo is just one of those companies that does well when consumers are feeling cash-rich and time-poor because ordering takeouts and grocery deliveries are expensive luxuries. If consumers are feeling cash-poor, they just won’t pony up for this sort of thing.

DeepSeek focuses on research over revenue in contrast to Silicon Valley (Financial Times, Zijing Wu) is a really interesting article which highlights the company’s decision to prioritise research over revenues despite a boom in take-up. DeepSeek managed to cover its ongoing costs for the first time ever last month as interest in its R1 model has sky-rocketed. * SO WHAT? * It is interesting to see that DeepSeek’s founder is more interested in putting resources into improving its model and making progress towards artificial general intelligence (AGI) where machines have humanlike cognitive abilities. Will this focus mean that it will catch up to and then surpass the arguably more distracted OpenAI?

I know that I’ve featured some epic table tennis rallies here in the past, but this one is absolutely epic! It is both compelling and exhausting at the same time! Bravo 👏👏👏!

Can Ukraine and Russia reach a lasting peace? (Financial Times, Ben Hall and Max Seddon) takes a look at the practicalities of peace in Ukraine. The situation currently is that Ukraine’s agreement to the US proposal of an immediate 30-day ceasefire puts the onus back on Russia. This means that if Russia doesn’t do anything, Trump will blame the Russians for getting in the way of peace. Russia wants a ceasefire (because they want to get control of Ukraine via the backdoor and install a Russia-friendly puppet regime), full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzihia and Kherson, for Ukraine not to join NATO, to get all western sanctions imposed since 2014 lifted and Zelenskyy out. It also wants to limit Ukraine’s armed forces to just 50,000 personnel and a ban on using long-range missiles. Ukrainians want to join NATO (but they realise this is now unlikely), to push the Russians back to pre-2014 borders (which they also now concede is unlikely) and security guarantees (which Europeans want to give but Americans don’t want to get involved with). It’s not sounding great for Ukrainians given that Trump appears to care more about normalising relations with Russia than long-lasting peace in Ukraine. On the subject of defence, Rheinmetall says it could take over idle Volkswagen plants to produce tanks (Financial Times, Patricia Nilsson) shows that the German weapons contractor said yesterday that it’s thinking of taking over one of VW’s soon-to-be-shutdown plants as it searches Germany for additional production capacity. * SO WHAT? * It seems that German carmakers’ loss could be German defence companies’ gain! Rheinmettal did say that further purchases of car factories would depend on getting more orders for tanks. The company reported record orders and profits and said that it expected sales to increase by up to 30% this year! Given how things are unfolding, I would have thought there will be a lot more upside here…

On the subject of tariffs, Canada announces retaliatory tariffs on nearly C$30bn worth of US imports (The Guardian, Lauren Aratani) shows that Canada is now turning the screws by imposing its own additional tariffs on US imports and Europe is fighting back against Trump’s tariffs. Middle America is top of its hit list (Daily Telegraph, James Crisp) highlights retaliatory tariffs from Europe that are aimed specifically at hit Trump voters. Canada cuts rates as trade war shakes consumer and business confidence (Financial Times, Ilya Gridneff) shows that the country’s central bank decided to cut its interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75% in expectation of a tariff-powered economic slowdown.

With regard to reaction to Trump’s economic policies, Blackstone and Goldman Sachs CEOs see upsides to Donald Trump’s policies (Financial Times, Guy Chazan) shows that financial leaders are, for the moment, toeing the line and saying that the tariffs could, “at the end of the day”, result in a major increase in manufacturing activity in the US, which supposedly will be good for the rest of the world. On the other hand, Hedge funds slash bets as Trump’s trade war causes ‘a lot of pain’ (Financial Times, Costas Mourselas and George Steer) shows what investors are really thinking as hedge funds have been selling their shares and cutting bank borrowing that finances their longs (where they buy shares) and shorts (where they borrow money to sell shares that they don’t have) in order to limit the scale of their losses. Some observers of multi-manager hedge funds say that the reduction in positions is the biggest they’ve seen since 2018 when markets tanked. CEOs Don’t Plan to Openly Question Trump. Ask Again If the Market Crashes 20% (Wall Street Journal, Chip Cutter and Lauren Thomas) shows that business leaders are saying different things in public than they are in private regarding Trump’s economic antics. It seems that, behind closed doors, they are tearing their hair out about tariffs and as “especially horrified about Canada”. However, in public they toe the line and don’t ask any awkward questions. It is interesting to note that, at a gathering of corporate execs at Yale on Tuesday, an impromptu poll asking how bad things would have to get before they publicly criticised the

president collectively showed that 44% of respondents said the stock market would have fall by 20% while an additional 22% said that it’d have to fall by 30%. Winners and losers from the Wall Street sell-off (Financial Times, Ian Smith, Mari Novik, Alan Livsey and George Steer) highlights the dramatic sell-off we’ve seen so far in US stock markets, identifying Big Tech, airlines and banks as seeing a lot of selling pressure while winners have been classic “defensive” stocks like utilities and healthcare as well as steelmakers. The valuation differential between the US market and European markets has also narrowed. * SO WHAT? * I think that all the execs concerned are hoping that Trump’s push for deregulation and lower taxes will more than make up for the damage being done by tariffs, which they see as being more of a short-term bargaining chip. They are also probably scared that criticism will make Trump dig his heels in in defiance. The mood is generally cooling down considerably from the optimism shown initially in Q4 last year and making long term investments is getting more difficult because no-one knows that Trump and his chums are going to do next.

The impact of Trump’s tariffs on the UK and the world (Daily Telegraph, James Warrington and Szu Ping Chan) is a useful guide on the current state of the tariffs, which at the moment includes a doubling of the taxes of Chinese imports to 20%, 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada with the exception of Canadian oil which has a 10% tax and 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminium. * SO WHAT? * Taxes on Mexican and Canadian goods are likely to have a big impact on US consumers, increasing grocery bills and fuel costs among many other things. To illustrate this point, the US gets a major portion of its fruit and veg from Mexico and the country also exports a lot of car parts to the US. Meanwhile, Canada provides around 60% of America’s crude oil, which means Americans will have to pay more for their fuel thanks to the tariffs. China is one of the world’s biggest producers of computer chips and electronic devices, so prices for electrical gadgets are likely to go up. In terms of who else is going to suffer, the UK’s steel industry will take a big hit from the global tax on steel and aluminium imports. However, everyone is likely to suffer because the cost of doing business will rise considerably and that will result in a slowdown in global trade. If you couple that with price rises hitting household disposable incomes, consumer spending will fall, which will slow economies down.

Then in China steels itself for Donald Trump’s turmoil with ‘DeepSeek congress’ (Financial Times, Joe Leahy and Ryan McMorrow) we see that China is bracing itself for a more hostile geopolitical environment whilst it also plans to boost investment in tech and support the ailing economy. The National People’s Congress was held this week and it touted itself as being an oasis of stability amid an ocean of chaos.

In other US news, Elon Musk’s cuts fail to stop US federal spending hitting new record (Financial Times, Chris Cook and Joe Miller) cites the Monthly Treasury Statement for February which shows that DOGE cost-cutting has not really made much impact so far. Must says the department has made over $100bn of savings but no one department has registered any real falls in spending thus far. * SO WHAT? * I’d say that it’s too early to draw any real conclusions here but it is obviously something that will be closely followed because Musk is trying to save $1tn. At the moment, it’s not looking great!

Then in US inflation dips amid worries about Trump tariffs (The Times, Mehreen Khan) we see that US inflation fell by more than expected in February although the figures don’t yet reflect the effect of tariffs. Is this the calm before the storm though??

Amazon, Google and Meta support tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050 (Financial Times, Malcolm Moore, Jamie Smyth and Amanda Chu) shows that the Big Tech companies have joined a group of energy-intensive companies to appeal for governments and utilities companies to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. A joint statement was co-ordinated by the World Nuclear Association. This follows on from a promise last year by 14 of the world’s biggest financial institutions to be more supportive of nuclear power. * SO WHAT? * This call for power has led many countries to revise their policies – including Japan, which said last month that it wanted nuclear power to make up more of its energy mix. In 2023 it was 8.5% but it wants this to be around 20% by 2040. This is particularly interesting given the effect that Fukushima had on the general consciousness and you’ve got to question the wisdom of this power source in an area of the world that is known for earthquakes. Still, the demand is absolutely there and is not going away any time soon…

In Google DeepMind unveils new AI models in race to make robots useful (Financial Times, Melissa Heikkila and Michael Peel) we see that Google DeepMind has unveiled two AI models – Gemini Robotics and Gemini Robotics-ER – that will make machines more useful and practical in the real world by helping them to adapt to complex environments. The company said that it will also be partnering up with start-up Apptronik to make humanoid robots based on this tech. There’s still a long way to go yet though.

Elsewhere, Saudi-owned Scopely buys Pokémon Go in $3.5bn gaming deal (Financial Times, Tim Bradshaw and Ahmed Al Omran) shows that the Saudi-owned developer has bought some games including Pokémon Go from creator Niantic for $3.5bn as Niantic itself is focusing more on geospatial AI which will ultimately be used in products such as smart glasses and robots. This purchase by Saudi Arabia’s Savvy Games group is all part of Saudi Arabia’s push to become a global gaming hub. Savvy Games Group bought Scopely in 2023 for $4.9bn.

Zara owner Inditex losing its shine with slow start to year (The Times, Fintan Hogan) reflects rare weakness from Inditex where sales have been pretty slow in the five weeks to March 10th. Zara accounts for about two-thirds of Inditex’s sales and the group has been a serial outperformer, so any mis-step is seen as a surprise. A fall in demand in China and the US was disappointing but the company said that sales have been picking up again recently and, overall, last year’s performance was solid. Clearly now it’s going to have to deal with tariffs…

In the UK, Debenhams is back, but it is still boo hoo to UK homegrown fast fashion (Financial Times, Lex) shows that Boohoo’s decision to rebrand itself Debenhams Group is a necessary step to get itself out of the rut it now finds itself in. Boohoo bought Debenhams’ brand out of administration in 2021 and has since then reinvented its as an online marketplace. Suppliers pay to sell via Debenhams but the suppliers are still responsible for sending out the physical goods. * SO WHAT? * While Debenhams is on the up, the youth brands on which Boohoo was built are

struggling due to competition with the likes of Shein, so it is definitely possible that we’ll see them get sold off to concentrate on Debenhams. How ironic!

Talking about strugglers, Puma banks on new trainers after share price runs into trouble (The Times, Ed Halford) shows that the German footwear firm is pinning its hopes on sales of its Speedcat trainers after the company yesterday warned about sales growth. It blamed poor performance for the first few months of this year on “soft performance in the US and China” thanks to geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. * SO WHAT? * Puma is trying to close the gap with Adidas, where somewhat of a turnaround is being staged. Analysts are sceptical at the moment that strong Speedcat sales will be enough to dig them out of the hole they’re in and there are doubts that the company will hit its long-term targets.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Roche, Zealand Pharma strike $5.3bn weight-loss drug deal (The Times, Alex Ralph) shows that Switzerland’s Roche and Danish biotech Zealand Pharma have agreed what will be the biggest collab to co-develop and co-commercialise Zealand’s promising next-gen anti-obesity drug as well as another treatment from Roche. * SO WHAT? * Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have benefitted enormously from being the first proper movers in this space, so this represents the next step. I think that the addressable market is huge so there’s space for everyone. I expect more and more entrants to this market as time goes on!

Back home, Stamp duty deadline and economic gloom dampen UK housing market (The Guardian, Mabel Banfield-Nwachi) cites the latest RICS survey which shows that momentum in the housing market slowed down last month as we head towards the April 1st deadline where stamp duty is going to rise for some properties. * SO WHAT? * I find this very surprising given that there is usually a major frenzy ahead of a deadline like this, but maybe people are unsettled by what’s going on in the world economy at the moment.

Then in Balfour Beatty buys back shares after fall in profits (The Times, Helen Cahill) we see that the infrastructure group balanced news of the departure of its CEO with an announcement of a big share buyback and higher dividends after putting in a strong performance. It painted a positive picture about the outlook and has decent order book growth and an active pipeline.

In employment news, PwC cuts record number of UK partners and halts tech apprenticeship scheme (Financial Times, Ellesheva Kissin) shows that the Big Four accountancy firm has been trimming headcount at both the entry and senior ends of the business. It also stopped one of its

apprenticeship programmes as it tried to cut costs. More than double the amount of partners left PwC last year than the national annual average of its leavers since 2002. * SO WHAT? * Recruitment of graduates and school-leavers by top accountancy firms has slowed down over the last year and there have also been rounds of “silent lay-offs” where staff have been offered voluntary severance but told not to inform colleagues why they were leaving. I guess that this needs a return of deal flow to reverse – but given what Trump’s doing at the moment, the expected rush may be delayed.

Meanwhile, Top City watchdogs drop new diversity and inclusion rules for firms (The Guardian, Joanna Patridge) shows that the FCA and PRA are now saying that they will not bring in new DEI rules for financial firms because they don’t want to add to their regulatory burden. They will instead support “voluntary industry initiatives” that will have the same effect.

EV battery startup Northvolt files for bankruptcy in Sweden (The Guardian, Joanna Partridge) sounds a sorry end to what was to be Europe’s big hope at upsetting Chinese dominance in EV batteries – but it was not to be as it filed for bankruptcy in its home country. It just couldn’t get the finances necessary to keep going. A trustee will now oversee the sales of its business and assets whilst paying down its debts. Northvolt’s fate teaches Europe a lesson: stick to what you’re good at (Financial Times, Lex) suggests that although there is a major mountain to climb for remaining European hopefuls in this space – Chinese and Korean companies make up almost 99% of car battery sales in the EU – they should start small and keep their ambitions realistic. Also, it may perhaps be wise to put European efforts into tech that we’re not already miles behind in. SMRs, for instance, could be the way forward…

This warped wall looks hard to conquer – but this lady makes it look easy with an impressive flex!

Ukraine willing to accept 30-day US-brokered ceasefire (Financial Times, Fabrice Deprez, Polina Ivanova, Ahmed Al Omran, Felicia Schwartz and Ben Hall) highlights the latest development in the Ukraine war and now it seems that there is a ceasefire offer on the table following hours of talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia. The ball is now in Russia’s court. The US added that it would immediately restore weapons and ammo delivery in addition to restoring intelligence sharing.

In tariff news, Donald Trump’s 25% steel and aluminium tariffs take effect despite recession fears (Financial Times, Aime Williams) shows that the president’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports came into effect today, following through on the promise he made last month. However, Donald Trump backs down on 50% steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada (Financial Times, Aime Williams and Ilyz Gridneff) highlights Trump’s latest U-turn – this time, he pulled back from threats to double US tariffs on Canadian steel and metal imports after Ontario suspended its own surcharge on 25% on power exports to the US. He will instead impose tariff of 25% on all Canadian steel and aluminium imports. Wall Street slide pulls S&P 500 into correction territory (Financial Times, George Steer, Ian Smith and Mari Novik) shows the effect of all this to-ing and fro-ing – that the S&P fell again, widening losses versus its high less than three weeks ago to over 10% briefly. Investors are getting really worried about the prospect of a US recession. Trump should be worried about the US economy — these five charts show why (The Times, Mehreen Khan) cites the Baker, Bloom, Davis index which is a gauge of the uncertainty of the economy as showing the highest level of US economic policy uncertainty since the financial crisis. It also highlights the performance of the S&P under Trump so far – it has returned to pre-election levels and its underperformance puts him on track to being one of the worst presidents for markets. The article also flags rising inflation expectations, the increasing likelihood of a recession and a weakening dollar as confidence wanes in the US. How Europe can take up America’s mantle (Financial Times, Martin Wolf) starts off with a quote from French senator Claude Malhuret that

“we were at war with a dictator; now we are fighting against a dictator supported by a traitor” and then moves on to suggest that Europe needs to step up, firstly by defending itself. It will need to do that by increasing defence spending significantly – and it actually does have the resources to do so. Unfortunately, this won’t be possible to do overnight because we’re still too dependent on US products and tech. It is also important for Europe to want to defend itself and pro-Putin governments in Hungary, Slovakia and potentially Austria could shake this resolve. France’s Le Pen has been pro-Putin in the past and the AfD could also throw a spanner in the works. If Europe is to survive, it needs to mobilise – and fast!

Meanwhile, it seems that there’s some public sector right-sizing going on on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment as Donald Trump to slash workforce at US education department (Financial Times, Steff Chavez) shows that the Trump administration has cut almost half of the US education department’s workforce as Trump is on the verge of issuing an executive order to shut it down completely. * SO WHAT? * The department’s existence has often been called into question as conservatives have often argued that individual states should set the curriculum and handle the day-to-day management of the education system.

Back home, Starmer axes UK payments watchdog as part of anti-regulation drive (Financial Times, Martin Arnold and George Parker) highlights the abolition of the Payments Systems Regulator as part of broader efforts to streamline the number of our 130 regulators. Its operations will be merged with the FCA once the appropriate primary legislation is enacted. * SO WHAT? * I guess this shows willing, but many already see it as a subsidiary of the FCA anyway. This is clearly low-hanging fruit – and I expect more such moves will come in due course.

Trump calls Tesla boycott ‘illegal’ and says he’s buying one to support Musk (The Guardian, Michael Sainato and Dara Kerr) highlights the latest Trump outbursts – that he blamed “Radical Left Lunatics” for “illegally” boycotting Tesla (it’s not – the first amendment of the US constitution protects Americans’ rights to protest against private businesses) and that he will classify violence against Tesla showrooms as domestic terrorism “because they’re harming a great American company”. Trump, Hater of EVs, Says He’s Buying a Tesla (Wall Street Journal, Annie Linskey) takes this further as Trump promised to buy a Tesla model Y at a White House photo op where the world’s most powerful man was seen giving support to the world’s richest. What I found most interesting about this article, though, was the response Trump gave to a reporter who asked when Musk would leave government service: “I think he’ll know when it’s time”, to which Musk responded “I’ll stay as long as I’m useful and I’m productive”. Elon Musk’s self-destruction (Financial Times, Edward Luce) goes further by pointing out that Trump has already pushed back on Musk’s power by saying that cabinet heads would make the decisions on hiring and firing – not DOGE – senior staff at the White House are not keen on him and recent Musk donations to Trump’s political action committees have been turned away. Then there is the thorny issue of China. Trump seems to be keen to keep turning the screws but the importance of China to Musk’s businesses continues to grow. * SO WHAT? * FWIW, I think that Trump’s “he’ll know when it’s time” remark could be interpreted to mean “I’ll decide when he goes but we’ll dress it up as his decision”. Also, I think that the China thing is going to be the big bone of contention between the two – and this could be the natural time for Musk to end his sojourn in the White House, at least for a while. I don’t doubt, however, that Musk could be a major kingmaker for the administration over which candidates will run for the NEXT election!

Tesla is plunging, X crashing – Elon Musk’s Starlink may be next (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) takes a look at Tesla’s current slide but then also homes in on threats made by Trump to switch Starlink off, which prompted the Polish prime minister to say that it could seek out alternative providers. Trump and US Secretary of State Rubio then ganged up on him a) demanding that he say thank you for the service it was paying for and b) insulting him by calling him a “small man” and that there was no alternative to Starlink. Although Musk is right in that there isn’t a satellite network that can realistically compete currently with Starlink both in terms of capability and cost, Eutelsat has seen a lot of interest and Viasat, which owns British network Inmarsat, is also in talks with European governments about replacing Starlink. That being said, Elon Musk’s Starlink in tie-up with domestic tycoon to enter India (Financial Times, Krishn Kaushik and Chris Kay) highlights an important win for Musk as he has just reached an agreement with telecoms tycoon Sunil Mittal to launch Starlink in India. The partnership between SpaceX and Mittal’s Bharti Airtel was announced yesterday and will pitch the two against local hero Reliance Jio. * SO WHAT? * I think that Musk has overplayed his hand and although competitors are way behind Starlink at the moment, Musk has given everyone amble reason to give rivals a proper chance. Although improvements at rival operators may not come soon enough to save Ukraine, this may cause a shifting in the playing field. The India development is important for Musk as he’s had a lot of difficulties cracking the market but he’s going to be sharing it with Eutelsat and, soon, Amazon’s Kuiper Systems service, so it’s going to be pretty competitive.

Volkswagen pins growth hopes on US despite tariffs (Financial Times, Patricia Nilsson and Kana Inagaki) shows that the German car manufacturer is sticking to its decision to push US sales growth to mitigate weaker sales in China and Europe despite US tariffs. It announced its full-year results for 2024 and flat earnings forecasts for 2025 and Volkswagen open to building military equipment for German army (Daily Telegraph, Matt Oliver) suggests that it is not dismissing the possibility of getting involved in Europe’s push to rearm. VW’s CEO said that the company had not been approached by potential partners but said that it would keep an open mind! * SO WHAT? * I think that it’s imperative that VW keep its options open and if it just can’t sell passenger vehicles in the numbers that it needs to, it should look at other possibilities. Interestingly, some car factories in Germany are being remodelled to manufacture weapons! If it can’t sell cars, maybe it’ll be able to sell tanks!

Elsewhere, Toyota considers exporting from UK to US to ease impact of Trump tariffs (Financial Times, Kana Inagaki) shows that the Japanese carmaker is thinking about using its UK plants to export vehicles to the US as a way of getting around his tariffs, given that it looks like the UK’s going to be hit far less severely by the new taxes. This is unlikely to be as impactful as it sounds, though, because the UK makes smaller models that aren’t as popular in the US. Meanwhile, Toyota unveils three new electric cars to help meet UK and EU targets (The Times, Robert Lea) highlights the imminent launch of three new EVs for the UK and European market – a relaunched bZ4X, an all-electric C-HR+ family crossover and a brand new smaller Urban Crossover. Prices and ranges have not yet been released. * SO WHAT? * This sounds like a good idea but of course the main question will be – is anyone going to actually buy them!

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Latham & Watkins hits $7bn revenue mark for first time on resurgent dealmaking (Financial Times, Suzi Ring) highlights record revenues for the US law firm thanks to an increase in dealmaking activity. It advised on 31 US IPOs last year, which was double the amount of any other law firm last year! The question is whether Trump’s policy manoeuvring will spook potential business as it is currently creating an air of uncertainty.

Elsewhere, Lego to build up digital games plus Nike and F1 tie-ups to keep tweens’ interest (The Guardian, Sarah Butler) shows that the toy company’s sales increased by 13% last year and it is continuing to look for areas of growth. It is engaging in tie-ups with brands including Nike and Formula One to keep tweens interested in the brand and building up its online play. * SO WHAT? * Given that a growing percentage of 9-12 year olds are spending more time online, Lego sees it as important to tap into more “hybrid” digital and physical experiences.

Then in Millions of car finance customers to get compensation (Daily Telegraph, Michael Bow) we see that the FCA is looking at launching an industry-wide compensation scheme to repay

motorists who may have been mis-sold car loans automatically. One key thing here is that the scheme would exclude claims management companies as banks could just pay customers directly, without them having to claim! At the moment, the onus is on the customers themselves to bring the claim. The FCA was originally going to unveil plans before May but it looks like this is going to be booted into later on this year. In the meantime, the Supreme Court is due to make a decision next month as to whether customers have in fact been mis-sold car loans.

Then in Leonardo to Launch Constellation of Military, Civil Satellites as Europe Beefs Up Defense Spending (Wall Street Journal, Cristina Gallardo) we see that the Italian aerospace and defence group announced plans to put almost 40 satellites into orbit by 2028 to provide services for military and civilian purposes, the idea being that it will give governments an alternative to Starlink. Although this is a drop in the ocean compared to the number of Starlink satellites, it is a step in the right direction!

This man’s Chinese takeaway order is pretty astounding! I think that it also looks like an absolute abomination 🤣🤣🤣 However, that being said, does it make you want to order a Chinese takeaway more – or less??

In war and defence news, Ukraine will need to make some territorial concessions for peace deal, Marco Rubio says (Financial Times, James Politi and Jim Pickard) shows that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is managing expectations and says that a compromise on territory is going to be necessary to get any kind of deal over the line. Talks between Washington and Kyiv are due to start today in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, UK to convene ‘coalition of the willing’ for fresh talks on Ukraine peace force (Financial Times, George Parker and Leila Abboud) shows that Starmer is continuing efforts to unite support for a peace deal in Ukraine. He will be hosting an online meeting of representatives of a group of mainly European and Commonwealth countries  this Saturday. The agenda will be centring around how to support Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. There will be a lot of talks going on this week about Ukraine! Germany’s Greens vow to block Friedrich Merz’s flagship spending package  (Financial Times, Laura Pitel and Anne-Sylvaine Chassany) shows that Germany’s disgruntled Greens are determined to block chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz’s plans to create a €500bn infrastructure fund and revision of the country’s debt limits to fund defence. They know they can spoil his plans by stopping him get the two-thirds super majority he needs in parliament next Tuesday to push this through. The CDU and SPD said that talks with the Greens were ongoing but they will also need to win over the liberal FDP as well! Even if all that goes Mertz’s way, Germany’s second chamber needs to be won over as well with the same majority – so it’s not a given! Britain is dependent on US weapons. We now face a terrible choice (Daily Telegraph, Matt Oliver) follows on from what I was saying yesterday about the UK’s exposure to US-made weapons, outlining a potentially frightening scenario where Russia invades an eastern European country, Trump is unwilling to clash with Putin and decides to switch off all updates, rendering our air force useless. * SO WHAT? * America’s reliability as an ally has now, for the first time, been called into question and our exposure to American hardware and tech – across all of our armed services – is causing a lot of concern. A lot of our equipment is “interoperable” with American platforms, which helps us work with American forces, and pretty much all of the intelligence we gather has to be run by the Americans because they have the systems to get the most out of it. America makes the “plumbing” that supports NATO, so at the moment we’re all in trouble. It will take years, a lot of money and a complete change in the way our armed forces operate to wean ourselves off the US enough to achieve some semblance of independence. Trump has single-handedly rendered decades of solid relations void and I think it unlikely that any country will trust America in the way that they have done in the past. There is no going back. European defence companies should do very well indeed out of this shift – if they are allowed to.

Risk of ‘Trumpcession’ rising, economists say, as global markets fall (The Guardian, Richard Partington) shows that Trump’s ongoing threats and his will-he-won’t he approach to tariffs has been translating into nervy markets amid increased likelihood of a Trump-led recession, or “Trumpcession”. Goldman Sachs analysts nudged up their forecasts of the possibility of a US recession from 15% to 20% while Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for 2025 GDP growth from 1.9% to 1.5%. * SO WHAT? * I know this is going to sound mega-cynical of me but I think that even if the US falls into recession, Trump will somehow do his best to fudge the numbers. The numbers were “adjusted” before under Biden’s watch, so I’m sure that Trump won’t be above this either! There will have to be an obvious weakening for the Americans to admit that they are in recession IMO.

‘Whatever you charge, I’m charging’: Donald Trump forces India’s hand on tariffs (Financial Times, John Reed, Andres Schipani and Haohsiang Ko) highlights the continuation of Trump’s steamrollering negotiation style, this time with India’s PM Modi. Trump says that India has agreed to cut its tariffs considerably and the two countries appear to be close to signing a “grand” bilateral deal. Modi has already pledge to buy more oil and gas but Trump wants more. * SO WHAT? * Since India became independent in 1947, it has continued to have some of the world’s highest average tariffs but its place in a fast-evolving world has changed considerably since then. It has evolved into an economic powerhouse and has to adapt to its new place amid the shifting geopolitical sands. Agriculture is likely to be a particularly sensitive area for tariffs, though, given that almost 50% of Indians work in this area. Negotiations are ongoing…

As the world continues to react to Trump/Musk-led disruption, Elon Musk blowback lights a rocket under European space companies (Financial Times, Lex) shows that concerns about

Musk’s Starlink have prompted a surge in interest in alternatives including Luxembourg’s SES and Anglo-French satellite operator Eutelsat. * SO WHAT? * Although Starlink beats everyone regarding capacity, coverage and tech, America’s changing stance on Europe is forcing everyone to reconsider their options and be much more wary. Funnily enough, Trump and Musk could be the making of the European operators!

In individual company reactions to all the tariff disruption, Top shipping broker Clarksons says war and Trump tariff fears have hit revenues (The Guardian, Jasper Jolly) shows that the world’s biggest ship broker, FTSE250-listed Clarksons, has blamed Trump’s shenanigans for hitting its revenues. Investors sent the share price down by a whopping 20% while Delta warns on profit as economic ‘uncertainty’ dents US demand (Financial Times, Peter Wells and Claire Bushey) highlights an example of an American company that’s been impacted. The airline cut sales and earnings forecasts for Q1, blaming a downturn in consumer and corporate confidence. This profit warning contrasted sharply with the positive outlook it had just two months ago.

On a broader scale, Trump is making Europe great again (Financial Times, Gideon Rachman) observes that Trump seems to be, unwittingly, bringing Europe closer thanks to his threats on tariffs and the viability of NATO. There are three key areas to monitor – defence, European debt and bridge-building between the UK and the EU. Recent poll results are pretty shocking – 78% of British see Trump as a threat to the UK, 74% of Germans and 69% of French. In another poll, France was seen as a “reliable partner” by 85% of Germans and Britain stood at 78% while the US got just 16%. Although everyone now sees the US as a threat (or at least no longer reliable), we are going to have to delay the weaning off of American military support to Europe for as long as possible whilst also preparing for it as quickly as possible. The issuance of debt will not only raise money to boost defence spending, it will also bolster the chances of the euro becoming a proper alternative to the dollar as a global reserve currency. Given Trump’s moves, countries will be keener than they have ever been to buy alternatives to US Treasuries. Regarding the bridge-building between the UK and EU, Starmer and Macron have already worked closely on Ukraine – and if you add Merz into the mix, this could be a pretty good trio. Another interesting consequence of Trump’s disruption could mean that America might suffer a brain drain of researchers as he puts pressure on US universities. * SO WHAT? * Europe has been brought together in the past by geopolitical shocks – by the end of the second world war, the end of the cold war and now we are witnessing the end of the transatlantic alliance. This is a chance for Europe to get its act together. FWIW, it seems to me that there is a real impetus for change and, as we saw in the pandemic, if countries get together in a common cause amazing things can be achieved pretty quickly.

Over in Canada, Mark Carney takes on Trump’s America (Financial Times, The Editorial Board) discusses the current situation in Canada where a former central banker with no political experience has not only become prime minister but could also win an election that his party looked certain to lose. However, Carney’s tough guy act will be a red rag to Trump (Daily Telegraph, Ben Marlow) says that while Carney’s belligerent chat might be good for votes, it won’t be good for diplomacy for when he wants to do deals with America given how vindictive Trump can be. * SO WHAT? * Carney hasn’t called an election yet, but he probably wants to in order to feed into the anti-Trump sentiment that is rising in the US’s northerly neighbour. His rallying call of “Canada never, ever, will be part of America in any way, shape or form” is surely designed to feed into the current mood and will be something that will be very much at the forefront of voters’ minds when an election is called. However, although he clearly has economic know-how, he will have to convince an electorate that he has the political skill to go toe-to-toe with Big Cheeto. 

Then in Ontario hits power exports to US with 25% surcharge as trade war escalates (Financial Times, Zehra Munir, Jamie Smyth and Amanda Chu) we see that Canada’s biggest province has slapped its own 25% tariff on US power exports which will impact 1.5m homes and businesses in Michigan, Minnesota and New York.  Ontario premier Doug Ford said that this would increase monthly bills for Americans by around $100. He added that “until the threat of tariffs is gone for good, Ontario will not relent”. He then added that if things with the US escalate further, he will “not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely”.

In retail trends news, Valentine’s Day proves a gift for UK retailers, as consumers hold back on big-ticket items (The Guardian, Phillip Inman) shows that an uptick in gift-buying for Valentine’s Day gave retailers a boost last month, according to the latest figures from the BRC. Consumers are still holding off buying big ticket items though. Still, total UK retail sales increased by 1.1% year-on-year in February, which is better than the 12-month average growth rate of 0.8%. * SO WHAT? * It seems to me that you could interpret this as consumers still WANTING to spend but just holding back because of the broader economic backdrop. Interestingly, the latest YouGov/Cebr consumer confidence index showed that households were actually quite upbeat despite a wonky start in January and separate figures from ManpowerGroup showed that a number of sectors were beginning to employ new staff after a months-long hiring freeze. Defence and public sectors were “bucking the hiring trend while other sectors hold back”.

There’s bad news for meat-lovers in Steak prices to soar as restaurants battle cattle shortage (Daily Telegraph, Daniel Woolfson) as restaurant owners and butchers are warning that there

will be major price rises coming as the demand for red meat is rising amid cattle shortages across Europe and the UK. One restaurant owner is talking about raising steak prices by up to 40% and charging an extra £2 for a burger that currently costs £13. Prices are also rising in the supermarkets as well. The situation has been blamed on economic uncertainty and changes in farming subsidies. Jake Schogger – if you’re reading this, it doesn’t sound good for our combined Christmas do this year 😭😭😭

Then in ‘Fewer job cuts’ despite budget fears (The Times, Richard Tyler) we see that official figures from the Insolvency Service show that businesses have actually made fewer people redundant over the last 12 months than in the year before despite sluggish economic growth. On the other hand, the number of employers indicating major redundancies has increased to its highest level since October 2020. Concerns from the increased NICs and minimum wage continue to weigh on the minds of employers…

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Novo Nordisk shares fall on latest trial results for new obesity drug (Financial Times, Michael Peel) highlights a rare bit of bad news for the company that makers Ozempic and Wegovy as it had another set of disappointing trial results for its latest obesity drug. Basically, the efficacy just isn’t living up to expectations.

In OpenAI strikes $12bn deal with CoreWeave (Financial Times, George Hammond, Tabby Kinder and Antoine Gara) we see that the AI giant has signed a five-year deal with cloud computing provider CoreWeave who will supply the computing power needed to train and run OpenAI’s AI models. * SO WHAT? * This will be a major boon for CoreWeave’s proposed $35bn public listing. OpenAI is doing this to wean itself off reliance on Microsoft, its biggest partner.

Elsewhere, Lloyd’s of London expects £2.3bn losses from California wildfires (The Times, Tom Saunders) cites the insurance market’s latest estimate of the cost of the wild fires which will dent it but not too badly, Unilever to hire influencers to sell mayonnaise and Marmite (Daily Telegraph, Hannah Boland) highlights a major plank in the new boss of Unilever’s strategy to drum up sales – spend more on using influencers – and KPMG to merge dozens of partnerships in overhaul of global structure (Financial Times, Stephen Foley and Ellesheva Kissin) shows that the accountancy firm wants to streamline its operations to boost growth and prevent audit scandals.

This contest is strangely compelling. I think that if you have a company offsite, you should definitely set something like this up!

In Ukraine seeks to persuade US to resume aid in high-stakes talks (Financial Times, Fabrice Deprez, Henry Foy and Myles McCormick) we see that bilateral talks will be held this week between the US and Ukraine. In the short term, Ukraine is going to push for the resumption in military intelligence and aid potentially by making progress in ceasefire talks. Ukrainian negotiators will be travelling to Saudi Arabia today. Meanwhile, Trump is carving up Ukraine with Putin. Taiwan is terrified it could be next (Daily Telegraph, Melissa Lawford, James Titcomb and Allegra Mendelson) highlights increasing fear in Taiwan about the prospect of a China invasion given the way Trump is behaving towards Ukraine. Although there’s talk of Taiwan increasing its defence spending from 2.5% to 3% of its GDP and TSMC promising to invest $100bn to build up manufacturing capabilities in the US, there are no guarantees that the US will be there for the Taiwanese in their hour of need. China’s president Xi Jinping has previously ordered his army to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027…

In the latest developments with Trump, ‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession amid trade tariffs (The Guardian) shows that Trump does not deny the possibility that the US will fall into recession this year and that inflation will increase but maintains that his policies will take time to bear fruit.

As for his billionaire BFF, Elon Musk seeks Italian presidential meeting to salvage Starlink deal (Financial Times, Amy Kazmin) shows that Musk is pushing for a chance to work his quirky charm on Italy’s president Sergio Mattarella as rumours circulate that Italy’s going to torpedo a potential $1.5bn with Starlink. The government has been in talks with Starlink for the last five years to provide secure military comms for diplomats, troops and other civil servants working abroad but given America’s recent political shift, there’s a very real possibility that Italy will push back. Ontario already pushed back about a month ago when Canada’s biggest province said it would cancel its £55m Starlink contract in protest at Trump’n Musk’s tariff-chasing. Eutelsat has now begun talks with the Italians…meanwhile, Elon Musk’s Starlink to keep rural NHS GPs connected to the internet (Daily Telegraph, James Warrington) shows that Starlink is faring better over here as the NHS has awarded a five year £85,000 contract to Starlink to provide internet services to GP practices and offices in the North East and North Cumbria. This is all part of a wider programme to improve connectivity in the health service. On the other hand, Second-hand Teslas flood the market as Elon Musk faces British backlash (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb and Matt Oliver) cites figures from Auto Trader which show that the number of used Teslas coming to market has risen considerably. Some say that this is because consumers are rejecting his political leanings while others say this is a consequence of an aging model line-up and more competition. It is worth noting, though, that the increase in listings of used Teslas between December and January was the biggest month-on-month increase ever. * SO WHAT? * I personally think it’s too early to tell whether Musk’s political shenanigans are the main reason for people abandoning them but the longer he persists in his controversial actions, the more likely it is that this will become the case.

In an interesting twist, Chinese investors privately take stakes in Elon Musk’s companies (Financial Times, Sun Yu) shows how Chinese investors have been managing to put money into Musk’s companies (including xAI, Neuralink and SpaceX) via the back door. Chinese asset managers have been able to park their money in these companies via special purpose vehicles (aka SPVs) that hide investors’ identities. * SO WHAT? * Although the use of SPVs is not uncommon, this does raise the question about conflicts of interests, particularly given Musk’s proximity to Trump. Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, made the cutting remark “How can someone in Musk’s position have so many connections to China but still be a good person to reform the US government?”.

There’s a new dawn for Canada in Mark Carney to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister (Financial Times, Ilya Gridneff) as the former governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada won the ruling Liberal party’s election to replace Justin Trudeau as its leader, therefore becoming prime minister by default. Carney promised to pursue fiscal responsibility and social justice whilst building “a stronger Canada for everyone”. He suggested that he would call a swift election to secure a mandate from the Canadian people. This has to happen by October this year, but maybe he will call it sooner to take advantage of the anti-Trump momentum. Can Mark Carney win an election in Canada and a trade war with the US? (Financial Times, Ilya Gridneff) takes a look at whether Carney can win another election for the Liberal party and

whether he can get a trade tariff truce with Trump. The Conservatives had been on course to thrash the Liberals in an election but Trump’s aggressive actions and now Carney’s international reputation have helped to close the gap. Clearly, he knows about economics – but will he be able to get his political skills to match up?

Back home, UK to impose new targets on regulators to spur innovation (Financial Times, Peter Foster) shows that government ministers are going to give regulators new performance targets in order to spur tech development and attract overseas investors. The targets are being put together by the new Regulatory Innovation Office that is to oversee underperforming regulators. * SO WHAT? * This sounds interesting, but I’m more sceptical about what the targets are actually going to be, how well-enforced they will be and whether they are actually going to stick or be quietly abandoned. Having targets is often a good thing but I’m not so sure about this in the case of regulators because having them could potentially force them to make decisions that they wouldn’t normally make for the sake of fulfilling quotas.

Then in New UK planning rules aim to halve approval time for major projects (Financial Times, Jim Pickard and Gill Plimmer) we see that the UK’s housing minister, Matthew Pennycook, said that the rules in the new Planning and Infrastructure Bill will cut the time it takes to get planning permission for major projects in half. Currently, the process takes about four years. The rules aim to cut red tape for Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects – or NSIPs. The government wants 150 NSIPs to be approved over the course of this parliament. * SO WHAT? * This sounds like great news for all concerned but obviously the key will be in the execution! Clearly this will be particularly good for developers, raw materials suppliers and probably local governments who will be able to benefit from new infrastructure.

Then in crypto news, Crypto prices fall as US strategic reserve plan disappoints traders (Financial Times, Nikou Asgari) we see that crypto prices fell on Friday after the executive order signed by Trump to establish a US strategic bitcoin reserve fell short of investor expectations. It said that the reserve would only hold assets that had been given over to US law enforcement authorities. Traders had been expecting the government to buy bitcoin and other currencies, hence the disappointment. Don’t worry, though, Trump won’t be skint as Donald Trump’s crypto project netted $350mn from presidential memecoin (Financial Times, Oliver Hawkins, Eade Hemingway and Nikou Asgari) shows that he managed to make a tidy $350m at least from his $TRUMP memecoin. Conflicts of interest don’t seem to be concerning people too much at this stage but if the wheels ever start to fall off Trump’s administration I have no doubt that things like this will be brought up!

Donald Trump is giving the euro a chance to dethrone the dollar (Daily Telegraph, Samuel Montgomery and Tim Wallace) takes a look at something that I’ve been wondering myself recently – whether Trump’s shenanigans could actually dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and boost use of the euro. 80 years ago, the pound was dethroned as the world’s reserve currency and since then the dollar has reigned supreme. Investors are getting touchy about the dollar and the emergence of what looks like European unity has given cause for some to wonder whether the euro could take its place, particularly if Europe starts to issue joint debt on a massive scale to fund defence and economic restructuring. * SO WHAT? * The dollar has been and is the biggest and most liquid currency – and to illustrate this point, the Federal Reserve estimates that between 1999 and 2019, the dollar was involved in 96% of international transactions in the Americas, 74% in Asia and about 96% for the rest of the world. The problem is that if Trump insists on pursuing his high tariff strategy, this is likely to result in lower trading volumes worldwide, economic slowdown and fewer opportunities for global investors to make any money in America. This will dent the dollar’s status. It is worth noting that the world has already started to try to wean itself dollar-dependency when America imposed sanctions against Russia in 2022. At that point, the Brics nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates) made conscious efforts to wean themselves off dollar dependency. Nowadays, Putin said that almost 95% of trade between Russia and China now takes place using local currencies. It seems now that there’s a lot more impetus to find an alternative reserve currency to the dollar – and the euro might just be it!

Two-thirds of arms imports to Nato countries in Europe come from US (Financial Times, Sylvia Pfeifer, Jana Tauschinski and Charles Clover) highlights the sheer amount of US-manufactured arms European members of NATO have imported over the last five years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). Arms imports by European nations more than doubled between 2020 and 2024 and 64% of these arms came from the US, up from 52% between 2015 and 2019. This just goes to show the massive challenge being faced by European leaders who need to increase defence spending pronto whilst being mindful of the US potentially falling outside the countries that we can trust. Clearly, the way forward here is to reduce reliance on US-made product, particularly in this sphere.

Can the US switch off Europe’s weapons? (Financial Times, Charles Clover, Sylvia Pfeifer, Lucy Fisher and Richard Milne) asks a very pertinent question that needs to be taken into consideration, bearing in mind what I’ve just said! What happened in Afghanistan in 2021 was a great example of what can happen if the Americans decide that they don’t like you any more. When the US withdrew, although the Black Hawk helicopters themselves remained, spare parts and software updates disappeared, rendering the aircraft largely useless within a few weeks.

* SO WHAT? * Given how much Europe has relied on American weapons and defence equipment over the years and given how hostile the current leadership now is, I think it would be wise for European nations to become much more cautious about buying American and put much more effort into growing local capabilities. That’s not going to be an overnight job, but longer term this is going to have to happen – and European companies are going to have to step up. One particularly pertinent example of why reliance on the US for defence equipment could be dangerous is Trump’s sabre-rattling about taking over Greenland. Denmark has said it could defend it by using US-bought F-35s but because the fighters depend on continuous updates and spare parts, it is possible that they won’t work if America doesn’t want them to work, hence rendering their defensive capabilities useless. Updates and maintenance are provided via the Autonomic Logistics Information System, which will be replaced by a system called Odin (the Operational Data Integrated Network). At the moment, more than 50% of Europe’s most advanced combat aircraft are bought from the US. There are also vulnerabilities in our nuclear deterrent, data and intelligence. This is not good news for the US defence industry because their exports will be dented – and this is probably why leading US defence companies’ share prices have lagged their European rivals recently.

China’s consumer prices fall for first time in more than a year (Financial Times, Eleanor Olcott) signals welcome news for Chinese consumers as an official release from the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday that consumer prices fell in February for the first time in 13 months. * SO WHAT? * Although this is welcome, at least some of this may be due to the lunar new year holiday being earlier than usual. Prices tend to rise during the holiday as consumers spend more of their money on travel and food. Clearly, all eyes will be on what the next reading will be!

UK house prices level off as rush to beat stamp duty fades (The Times, Tom Howard) highlights some potential relief for UK home buyers as the latest stats from Halifax show that house prices in February went sideways from the historic highs they reached in January. The annual rate of price inflation was unchanged versus this time last year. * SO WHAT? * At the moment, some are mooting the possibility that concerns about the broader economy are starting to burst the real estate bubble somewhat but I have to say that this is just one month. I suspect that momentum will start to pick up again as we get closer to the stamp duty deadline.

In employment news, US law firms’ London expansion drives record number of job moves (Financial Times, Suzi Ring) highlights a lot of job-hopping among senior lawyers as US law firms continue to be keen to splash the cash according to legal recruiter Edwards Gibson. They believe that partner hires could reach new heights in 2025 and there has been a lot of activity so far as January and February are usually very busy. The companies hiring most aggressively have been Kirkland & Ellis and White & Case in addition to Clifford Chance.

Elsewhere, though, Firms hold back on hiring amid ‘significant cost rises’, surveys say (The Guardian, Joanna Partridge) cites the latest KPMG/REC report which shows that companies are reining in their hiring plans due to an uncertain economic outlook and rising wage costs. The gloom continues!

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, John Lewis £120m profit forecast ignites bonus debate (The Times, Emma Taggart) shows that the retail partnership is staging a bit of a turnaround. It is believed to have outperformed market forecasts significantly but underperformed internal forecasts – and that means that it’s unlikely that its employees will be getting a fat bonus. All eyes will be on what the new chairman Jason Tarry will say regarding the future strategy.

Elsewhere, Just two buyers left in race to buy WH Smith high street division – report (The Guardian, Joanna Partridge) shows that restructuring firms Alteri and Modella Capital are the last remaining interested parties left in the running to buy WH Smith’s high street stores. It is

hoped that a deal could be completed in April. If I was working at WH Smith right now, I’d be job hunting as I would put a large amount of money on the buyer axing a LOT of stores. I think it will be brutal.

Then in Meta accelerates voice-powered AI push (Financial Times, Hannah Murphy and Cristina Criddle) we see that Zuck is bolstering the voice capabilities of its LLM Llama 4 in ongoing efforts to build something that generates revenues. The improvements are expected in the coming weeks and are aimed at making the conversation between humans and machine more natural.

This little girl is hilarious! She sounds like an old soul, pondering important issues on the walk to school…

I really recommend that you listen to the podcast I recorded earlier this week with Giles Morgan, founder of negotiation coaching and consulting company Kahvay. I learned a lot from talking to him about what motivations lie behind the various negotiating tactics that Trump is currently using. Fascinating stuff!

EU puts on show of solidarity with Volodymyr Zelenskyy after clash with Donald Trump (Financial Times, Henry Foy, Paola Tamma, Ben Hall and Andy Bounds) shows Zelenskyy getting a rather warmer reception in Europe than the one he got in the US and was promised “enduring” support from all European leaders apart from Hungary’s Orbán in an EU joint statement. Another statement that was agreed on by all 27 EU leaders was about new defence funding initiatives that included changes to debt and deficit rules, all of which is designed to free up money to boost military capability. Details are still being discussed.

Can Europe’s defence groups step up if Donald Trump pulls back? (Financial Times, Sylvia Pfeifer and Clara Murray) is an interesting article that ponders an important question after three decades of shrinking defence spending in Europe! The sudden sky-rocketing in demand for defence equipment has exposed gaps in capability such as intelligence and surveillance, air and missile protection systems, heavy-lift transport aircraft and air-to-air refuelling. Given the US’s withdrawal of military support, it is particularly sobering to see that the US accounted for 55% of Europe’s defence equipment imports between 2019 and 2023 versus 35% in the previous five years. European companies have said that they are confident of their technical capability to grow accordingly but are keen to ensure that governments sign long-term contracts in order to underpin such a broad-based expansion. US defence companies are also likely to benefit from increased spending but I would have thought that governments would be more keen to “order European” given that it is no longer a given that America is on our side. In the meantime, though, America’s General Dynamics could benefit from an influx of orders for ammo and armoured vehicles as Europe’s capacity in this area is spread particularly thinly while European giants like Rheinmetall and BAE Systems have already seen more orders for land vehicles, ammo and munitions. KNDS, which brings together France’s Nexter and Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, could also be well-positioned. Eurosam (a JV between MBDA and Thales) and Saab could benefit in the field of air defence and missile systems, Germany’s Hensoldt and Sweden’s Saab provide surveillance systems while Eutelsat, Starlink’s  (much smaller) European rival could see a sudden burst of interest if America’s Starlink were to withdraw its services. Even if it doesn’t, I’m sure that European governments will want to encourage a “local” champion. Eutelsat’s share price has shot up by over 500% since last Friday’s close! Other than that, France’s Thales is a leader in cyber security and Leonardo is highly experienced in sensors and radar. The sudden increase in defence spending in the region could also be very good news for defence start-ups. German defence AI start-up Helsing is seen as our version of America’s Palantir Technologies and it said last year that it would be starting on drone manufacturing. It’s all happening – but will it happen quickly enough for Ukraine?? * SO WHAT? * This is all very well and encouraging but people are still dying on the ground and you wonder whether this is all going to be too little too late for Ukraine. It has taken Trump’s massive shake-up to shock Europe into doing something it should have done long ago but at least it IS happening.

Meanwhile, Keir Starmer makes fresh diplomatic push for Ukraine peace plan (Financial Times, George Parker and Henry Foy) has managed to bring together around 20 countries to form a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire but they haven’t been named as talks are still fluid. Talks about a peace plan are also coming together. Again, at least something is happening at the moment…

In tariff news, US backtracks on Canada-Mexico tariffs in latest sharp shift on trade (Financial Times, Aime Williams) shows that Trump has now gone a step further from the one-month reprieve he gave car manufacturers and given Mexico and Canada a one month reprieve from the threatened 25% tariffs. Washington hinted that this could be extended if they made concrete progress in clamping down on the trafficking of fentanyl. Still, US stocks sink on tech sell-off and tariff worries (Financial Times, George Steer and Mari Novik) reflects a steep drop in US stocks

as investors digested Trump’s latest actions. At the moment, it really is very difficult to tell what is real and what is bluster as far as Trump is concerned and I think that this will continue to unnerve markets. This will be good news for investors who love volatility though!

Trump has been busy elsewhere in Donald Trump restrains Doge as concern mounts over scale of job losses (Financial Times, Joe Miller) where the president has had to move in to restrain the zeal with which Musk is wielding the axe on civil servants. He wants DOGE to be less indiscriminate and be more targeted about who it lets go. The layoffs have so far affected at least 20,000 employees. US pulls out of flagship $45bn global climate finance coalition (Financial Times, A.Anantha Lakshmi, Attracta Mooney and Rob Rose) highlights another Trump move as he quit as a core member of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), an initiative launched in 2021 to help South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam to wean themselves off fossil fuels and use more renewable energy. The deal was the countries would get funding in return for cutting emissions.  Other members – including the EU, the UK and Japan – say that they remain committed but the US exit will be a real blow and raises questions about its viability, particularly as other members are going to have to up their defence spending!

In Europe, ECB cuts rates again and warns trade war fears are hurting Europe’s economy (The Guardian, Phillip Inman) shows that the ECB cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5% as the bloc faces a “high level of trade and policy uncertainty” although, on the plus side, inflation does seem to be calming down. The central bank did cut its growth forecasts for this year though.

The reawakening of Germany (Financial Times, the editorial board) is an interesting article that considers the impact of Germany’s biggest stimulus since the reunification of the country in 1990. Although chancellor-in-waiting Merz had to do a complete about-face on his stance on the debt brake espoused during his election campaign, the fact that he was decisive in the face of America’s dramatic shift in policies could be interpreted as an encouraging sign. Given the previous government’s prolonged indecision, there were fears that the new coalition would dither – but it didn’t. * SO WHAT? * The stimulus package of €500bn will help reverse years of underfunding in transport, hospitals, energy, education and digital infrastructure and predictions that defence spending will go from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.5% of GDP in 2027 highlights a massive uptick. The new government will have to move quickly to turn this “talk” of spending into real action, but with Germany back on the European fun bus it certainly looks like there will be more of a chance of unity in Europe than we’ve seen for quite some time.

In oil news, BP cuts boss’s pay by 30% after company misses profit targets (The Guardian, Rob Davies) shows that “poor old” Murray Auchincloss will “only” get paid £5.4m for his work in 2024 after a tough period where BP has made moves to reduce its climate commitments and focus its efforts on what it does best. His basic salary increased from £1m to £1.45m, but he fell short of various performance targets, hence the reduction in what he earned overall. * SO WHAT? * TBH, after lots of hinting at reining in the company’s green ambitions, Auchincloss only announced the “fundamental reset” of BP’s strategy last month so he’s just going to have to take this on the chin. He’s got it all to do and has activist investor Elliott Investment Management breathing down his neck all the while!

Then in Venture Global shares plummet as US LNG exports slow (Financial Times, Alexandra White) we see that Virginia-based Venture Global watched its shares crater by 36% in trading yesterday thanks to weakening LNG sales and exports. It only listed in January but has so far lost over 50% of its value since then! * SO WHAT? * Trump has been a supporter of the US LNG industry and wants more foreign leaders to buy more of it. The CEO remains bullish about the company’s prospects, saying that there had been solid demand for 20-year contracts, and Venture Global did manage to turn a profit of $871m versus a $50m loss in the same quarter a year ago.

Private equity group Sycamore to take Walgreens private in up to $24bn deal (Financial Times, Oliver Barnes, Gregory Meyer and Eric Platt) shows that Sycamore Partners has struck a deal worth up to $23.7bn to buy Walgreens Boots Alliance and take it private after its near century-long run as a public company. It is thought that Sycamore will hold onto the US retail business and ditch the rest. * SO WHAT? * Will this be the death of Boots? This is a major deal for Sycamore so I would have thought it will want to get shot of the mature UK business as soon as it can so it can concentrate on the job in hand. Who is going to be willing to buy a very mature Boots with a big high street presence in a highly competitive market?? I personally think that it should concentrate on three areas where it has particular expertise – beauty, the business surrounding medicines and travel. The disappearance of department stores from the high street means that there are fewer places to go to get the latest fragrance (you can’t smell stuff on the internet now can you and customers generally prefer to try make-up before they buy it) and its prescriptions business will keep people coming through the door. I think that it should also take a leaf from high street rival WH Smith’s book and put more effort into a travel business with outlets at airports and stations given how successful that has proved to be.

Elsewhere, Gap Beats Wall Street Expectations Thanks to Holiday-Season Sales (Wall Street Journal, Sabela Ojea) shows that the turnaround at the apparel company continues to gather pace as it announced stronger-than-expected sales over the crucial holiday period and posted results that came in above market expectations. * SO WHAT? * This sounds like the company making great progress after a number of years in the wilderness. I guess it just has to watch out for nervous consumers reining in discretionary spending in what is expected to be an inflationary environment in the US.

Back home, Poundland up for sale as owner seeks to change focus (Financial Times, Laura Onita) shows that Pepco Group, the Warsaw listed owner of the ailing UK discount retail, has now put Poundland up for sale. This is part of a strategic move to move away from selling less profitable fast-moving consumer goods (aka “FMCG”) in favour of higher margin clothing and general merchandise. * SO WHAT? * Who will buy this?? In the current uncertain economic environment it could be a big gamble. Will a PE fund just move in and sell off the assets I wonder?

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, What Automakers’ Tariff Reprieve Means for Car Buyers (Wall Street Journal, Mike Colias, Ryan Felton and Christopher Otts) suggests that Trump’s recent reprieve just kicks the can down the road and when they do come in, car prices in the US are going to have to rise because margins for carmakers are already thin. The delay will give carmakers more time to lobby Washington, though – and given that it seems Trump has the propensity to change his mind, it’s certainly worth giving it a go!

Elsewhere, BYD’s share sale spotlights Hong Kong’s revival (Financial Times, Lex) highlights the success of BYD’s $5.6bn share sale this week – Hong Kong’s biggest deal for four years! The fact that the successful BYD chose Hong Kong over mainland China signifies Hong Kong’s return to the big leagues. Its IPO market is also gaining momentum – total funds raised last year were double what they were the previous year and PwC reckons that they could double again this year, given a fair wind.

Back home, Labour’s housing targets hit by falling approvals and slow building rates (The Times, Tom Howard and Jack Barnett) shows that although the UK government is winning the

plaudits in its stance on Ukraine, there was bad news on the house construction front. Its already-ambitious targets to build 1.5m homes by 2029 looked even further out of reach after official data released yesterday showed that planning approvals dropped to a ten-year low last year as housebuilding momentum has now slowed down to the slowest rate since the financial crisis. The government continues to stick to its target but it will need to do more to speed up the planning process as well as giving more assistance to the construction industry itself.

Then in ITV shares surge as profits more than double (Financial Times, Daniel Thomas) we see that ITV’s share price boomed yesterday as it unveiled a boom in pre-tax profits thanks to record results at its TV production division and cost-cutting. Advertising revenue grew but the company warned that this year will be tougher because new UK government restrictions on marketing less healthy foods will have an impact. * SO WHAT? * I think that a recovery in ad spend is a very good sign, but the negative impact of more ad restrictions will be frustrating as the company is just showing the early shoots of recovery!

I’m a fan of Guinness. This man takes his Guinness very seriously! Apparently, this place does a very good steak as well (and no, I’m not making anything from this!)…

I really recommend that you listen to the podcast I recorded yesterday with Giles Morgan, founder of negotiation coaching and consulting company Kahvay. I learned a lot from talking to him about what motivations lie behind the various negotiating tactics that Trump is currently using. Fascinating stuff!

We’re ready for trade war and real war, China tells Trump (The Times, Richard Spencer) reflects China’s anger regarding Trump’s most recent announcement of additional tariffs of 20% on Chinese imports as the foreign ministry made a statement saying “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end”. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth responded by saying “Those who long for peace must prepare for war…That’s why we’re rebuilding out military”. China’s government said that it will double-down on the state subsidies that make Chinese products so competitive, particularly in biomanufacturing, quantum technology, AI and 6G technology.

In Donald Trump says it is ‘over’ for Hamas unless hostages are released (Financial Times, Felicia Schwartz, Neri Zilber and Andrew England) we see that Trump is putting more pressure on Hamas to hand over its remaining hostages just hours after holding direct talks with the group. He added that “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say…This is your last warning!”. Hamas is still holding 59 hostages in Gaza, with fewer than half believed to be alive.

In yet another example of Trump’s latest negotiating blitz, US cuts off intelligence sharing with Ukraine (Financial Times, Christopher Miller, Lucy Fisher, Henry Foy, Ben Hall and Fabrice Deprez) highlights another dramatic move which could seriously dent Ukraine’s ability to target Russian forces. This follows on from the decision earlier this week to suspend military aid to Ukraine. The director of the CIA added that there was hope that it would be restored, but for now it has paused. The US has also formally blocked its allies from sharing US intelligence with Ukraine.

German borrowing costs rise sharply after deal to allow more defence spending (The Times, Jack Barnett) highlights the inevitable consequences of incoming chancellor Merz’s plans to construct a $500bn fund whilst ring-fencing defence spending from its “debt brake” rule. * SO WHAT? * Economists have blamed dogged adherence to the rule as one of the main drags on economic growth in Germany over the last few years. Merz’s move was described by Jim Reid, head of macroeconomic research at Deutsche Bank, as “one of the largest fiscal regime shifts in postwar history, perhaps with reunification 35 years ago being the only rival”.

I mentioned the prospect of seizing frozen Russian assets earlier this week and The West is sitting on $300bn of Russian assets – but seizing it will chill the City (Daily Telegraph, Lucy Burton and Tim Wallace) takes a closer look at the implications – that Europe could suddenly access £200bn of assets that could be used to boost defence spending significantly. * SO WHAT? * This sounds like a no-brainer initially, but some are worried that this could set a precedent that may deter billionaires from settling in the UK. It could also breach international law and result in a slew of lawsuits from these people and nation-states. Macron has already dismissed the idea and

Reeves has highlighted the importance of broad-based international co-operation to make it work because, presumably, if some accessed such assets and others didn’t, money would immediately flow to those places that didn’t! Interestingly, the US has been a fan of Europe seizing such assets for some time and first looked into the feasibility of doing so in April 2022. At the moment, it doesn’t sound like it’ll happen but we are in desperate times so you never know!

Staying with the subject of financing defence spending, Pension savings to be spent on rearming Britain in defence push (Daily Telegraph, Michael Bow and Szu Ping Chan) shows that plans are being drawn up to boost defence spending by rewriting the voluntary Mansion House Compact in such a way that it will unlock pension fund assets that could be used to invest in defence companies. The MHC was put together to encourage UK pension funds to park some of their money in growth assets. Alongside this, the government is working on ways to take away any ESG investment concerns specifically regarding the defence sector. * SO WHAT? * All of this would be positive for the UK’s defence sector because a) investors have had ESG concerns in the past about investing in the sector (because their product kills people – violating the “S” in ESG), so these developments could ease such concerns and because b) the industry, aside from a few big players like BAE Systems, is actually quite fragmented and pension funds have not been able to invest in the smaller players. It’ll take time to put together and implement though…

In tariff-related news, Trump temporarily spares carmakers from US tariffs on Canada and Mexico (The Guardian, Callum Jones) shows that the president has just given carmakers a free pass for one month regarding the new US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. Shares in large carmakers GM, Ford and Stellantis all jumped in a bit of a relief rally. * SO WHAT? * My question here is – what happens when the month is up?? I guess this gives the companies a bit of breathing space and time to come up with a proper way forward to accommodate Trump’s thinking.

In ‘Substantial’ risk to the UK from Trump tariffs, says Andrew Bailey (The Times, Jack Barnett and Mehreen Khan) we see that the governor of the Bank of England told parliament that Trump’s tariffs will hit UK and global economic growth, adding that UK household disposable income would be squeezed as a result. * SO WHAT? * FWIW, I would say that one of the main dangers of Trump’s tariffs is that product intended for the US market may be diverted elsewhere (including here) and push prices down for domestic companies that produce the same or similar goods. That’s great for consumers and taking the heat out of inflation but could potentially kill companies and industries…

Then in Oil price tumbles to 3-year low on fears trade war will hit demand (Financial Times, Tom Wilson) we see that oil prices weakened for the third consecutive day on fears that Trump’s trade war will prove to be a major drag on global economic growth, which will in turn lead to falling demand for oil. Brent Crude’s price is now at its lowest level since December 2021. * SO WHAT? * There’s a real cloud hanging over the oil sector now what with OPEC+ recently deciding to open the taps and end its policy of production cuts and Saudi Aramco reporting disappointing results.

Lower growth forecast in ‘long and challenging year’ for UK firms (The Times, Alex Ralph) cites the BCC’s latest economic forecasts which have been downgraded due to major costs pressures “piling up on businesses”. The downbeat assessment comes ahead of Reeves’s spring statement, which is due out on March 26th.

UK business cutting jobs amid ‘loss of momentum’ from autumn budget (The Times, Jack Barnett) cites findings from the latest S&P Global PMI for February which shows that service

companies have cut employment for the fifth straight month – the longest losing streak since early 2011 (excluding the pandemic). * SO WHAT? * I thought that Pantheon Economics’s chief UK economist made a very interesting point though – that the PMI “asks only how many firms are cutting output or employment, rather than by how much”, meaning that the findings can be exaggerated. The implication here is that the survey is underestimating underlying economic activity.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Adidas lowers profit forecast for year (The Times, Emma Target) shows that the company has reined in expectations for this year after a strong 2024 but it remains optimistic about its product offering whilst acknowledging a tricky macroeconomic backdrop. Fun fact: its final pair of Yeezy’s got sold at the end of 2024, bringing a close to a very difficult chapter for the company.

Gaming chat platform Discord in early talks with banks about public listing (Financial Times, Arash Massoudi, Hannah Murphy and Tabby Kinder) shows that the San Francisco gaming chat platform’s is in the early stages of talking with banks about an IPO. It now has 200m monthly users around the world and was last valued at $15bn in a 2021 funding round. It sounds like tech IPOs are in the offing this year!

New car registrations in the UK slip for fifth consecutive month (The Times, James Hurley) cites the latest SMMT stats which showed that car registrations fell for the fifth month in a row in

February as fleet registrations were down. On the plus side, EV take-up is increasing and Tesla saw a bounceback in sales from a weak January. * SO WHAT? * Car manufacturers are still having to subsidise their EV sales in order to meet EU emissions rules whilst at the same time facing competition from China. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next month in terms of registrations because that’s when the new numberplates come out. February is traditionally a quiet month because fleets are waiting for the new plates to come out.

Then in Games Workshop shares lifted by few short words (The Times, Emma Taggart) we see that the maker of computer games and Warhammer posted results that came in ahead of expectations in its latest trading update. It has strong momentum and will no doubt benefit from an announcement in December that Amazon will be turning Warhammer 40,000 into a TV series. It’s looking good!

This is a highly amusing cat video – make sure you watch it right through to the end though!

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine ‘ready’ to talk peace in bid to placate Donald Trump (Financial Times, Christopher Miller and Fabrice Deprez) shows that Zelenskyy is showing willing after Friday’s nightmarish public humiliation in the Oval Office and the subsequent cutting off of military aid and says he’s committed to pursuing peace but Why Volodymyr Zelenskyy refuses Donald Trump’s ceasefire ‘trap’ (Financial Times, Ben Hall) shows just why Ukraine’s president is reluctant to engage in a ceasefire without guarantees that the Russians won’t attack again. The main reason is that the last time a ceasefire was agreed between Russia and Ukraine in 2014, Russia frequently violated it. The “Minsk agreements” were brokered by France and Germany in 2014 and 2015 and were meant to end the conflict in the eastern Donbas region but the agreements failed miserably in deterring subsequent Russian aggression.

Meanwhile, ‘Chips on the table’: Taiwan pushes for closer US ties as China threat looms (Financial Times, Kathrin Hille and Demetri Sevastopulo) highlights just why TSMC announced a $100bn investment in chipmaking in the US – because it doesn’t want China to invade – but Taiwan vows most advanced tech will not go to US under $100bn Trump deal (The Guardian, Helen Davidson) shows that Taiwan’s government was keen to say that the most advanced tech will remain in Taiwan, the idea being that keeping it there ensures US commitment to defend it. This whole announcement has caused a bit of a kerfuffle, so negotiations will continue.

Elsewhere, Arab states endorse alternative to Donald Trump’s postwar Gaza plan (Financial Times, Andrew England and Heba Saleh) shows that Arab states, at a summit of the Arab League in Cairo yesterday, got together to formulate an alternative post-war plan for Gaza as an alternative to Trump’s suggestion of clearing out Palestinians and plonking them in neighbouring countries while Gaza is developed into the “riviera of the Middle East”. This plan involves Gaza being governed in a transitional phase by a committee of Palestinians with no political affiliation, Palestinian forces would take over the security role in Gaza and be backed up by peacekeepers deployed by the UN Security Council. This proposal is probably going to be discussed at a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation sometime this week before being presented to Trump. Israel is unlikely to accept this, so we’ll just have to see how things play out…

Meanwhile, Trump’s address to Congress as it happened: president doubles down on tariffs and touts achievements on immigration (Financial Times, William Sandlund and Peter Wells) reflects Trump’s assessment of his administration’s progress so far as he said that he’s “just getting started”. Trump defended the tariffs, whilst admitting that they would cause “disturbance”, said that Ukraine was getting close to peace, pledged tax cuts and boasted about the “most sweeping border and immigration crackdown in American history” and that he would “get” Greenland “one way or another”. US stocks erase post-election gains on Trump tariff fears (Financial Times, George Steer and Mari Novik) shows that investors are getting pretty nervous about what Trump is doing as all of the gains that markets have made since Trump’s election victory vanished yesterday while BlackRock to buy Panama Canal ports after pressure from Donald Trump (Financial Times, Eric Platt, Kaye Wiggins, Chan Ho-him and Ivan Levingston) shows that even the mighty BlackRock is having to “bend the knee” as it bowed to pressure from Trump to buy a 90% stake in two major ports on the Panama Canal from current Hong Kong-based owner CK Hutchison. It will do this as part of a consortium including Global Infrastructure Partners and Terminal Investment Limited. Trump has been getting very aggressive about the Panama canal and caused a kerfuffle in Panama when he complained about growing Chinese influence and threatened to “take it back” under American control earlier on this year. Control of other ports are part of the deal but I guess the ports on the Panama Canal are what most people are really interested in! * SO WHAT? * Trump really put the wind up Panamanians, particularly as he keeps going on about annexing Canada, Greenland and Panama, so this latest move may calm things down a bit. By way of background, the Panama Canal is run by the Panama Canal Authority, which is an arm of Panama’s government. It was originally built by American engineers and run by the US from 1914 to 1977 when a treaty came into force handing it back to Panama in stages until Panama took complete control in 1999.

If you have access to this, I would thoroughly recommend that you read the full version of The economic costs of Trump’s assault on the global order (Financial Times, Martin Wolf) because it breaks down the effect of what Trump has done so far. Tariffs and Trump’s stance on Ukraine are effectively ending trading relationships and core alliances as Trump is prioritising Russia over Europe. Regarding the whole tariff thing, Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist of the IMF, said that America’s trade deficits aren’t the fault of “cheating” trading partners – it’s because America is spending more than it earns. Trump says that the EU’s existence is purely based on the intention to “screw the United States”. The EU was actually formed to develop economic relations and political co-operation to build up a continent that had been through two horrendous wars. Danish economist Jesper Rangvid also points out that Trump is basing this entire attack on the trade in goods and completely cuts out trade in services and earnings from capital and labour which put a sizeable dent in any deficit. There are a ton of interesting charts and stats in this article that definitely warrant attention but the nub of it is that Canada and Mexico are going to suffer a lot from the tariffs while the EU won’t (comparatively speaking). Regarding Ukraine,

Trump’s actions essentially mean that he can be no more trusted than Putin and that Ukraine’s future really depends on Europe stepping up regarding both its own and Ukraine’s defence. In theory, the EU plus UK has over triple the population of Russia and has almost five times more purchasing power so if everyone pulled together, containing Russia’s military aggression is not unfeasible in the long term. However, shorter term, Europe’s in a pickle because we don’t make some of the crucial military equipment needed and what happens there will depend on the willingness of US supplying Europe. * SO WHAT? * Trump’s actions have decimated both political and economic trust and have given despots around the world hope that they can safely attack others while America looks the other way. This is a harsh wake-up call but if countries (particularly Europe) can get their act together, this may actually turn out to be a good thing in the end. Much in the way that America’s sanctions on tech in China is pushing China to make huge progress in its own tech maybe what’s going on now will lead to better co-operation between countries outside America and stronger national capabilities.

It looks like Trump is about to smash the source of his own strength (Daily Telegraph, Tim Wallace and Melissa Lawford) also trumpets the above narrative whilst pointing to falling factory orders and a wavering in confidence in the US while its economy starts to contract. Border taxes will now be at their highest level since 1943 – and considering that they import a lot of stuff, prices of goods are expected to rise by at least 1%, adding $1,600-$2,000 to annual household costs according to Yale’s Budget Lab. Americans wanting to buy computers or electronics will face price rises of over 10%, clothes by 7.5%, cars 6.5%, natural gas 5% and fruit and veg 2.9%. – and this is all going to feed through to living standards, hitting discretionary spend. If China, Mexico and Canada retaliate, NIESR reckons that America will turn out to be the biggest loser of the trade war. Beijing retaliates after Donald Trump imposes tariffs on top US trade partners (Financial Times, Arjun Neil Alim, Joe Leahy, Ryan McMorrow and Mari Novik) shows that China and Canada are already responding with retaliatory tariffs of their own while Mexico’s keeping its powder dry until Sunday. Meanwhile, on the other side, The Day Trump’s Tariff Threats Became a Reality for America Inc. (Wall Street Journal, Sarah Nassauer, Roshan Fernandez and Rebecca Picciotto) shows that US business executives are now scrambling to make plans to take higher prices into account now they’ve got something to work with and From Dolls to Games, Toy Industry Frets About Tariff Impact on Costs, Prices (Wall Street Journal, Connor Hart) shows that toymakers like Hasbro (and probably industries that outsource a lot of production or use a lot of foreign-sourced parts or ingredients) are panicking about what tariffs mean for them in practical terms. They are bracing themselves for pain, though, and smaller players are going to be particularly vulnerable because they can’t easily change or adapt their supply chains.

On the other hand, ‘Trump is kicking ass’: supporters cheer president’s frenzied first weeks (Financial Times, Myles McCormick) takes a look at what Americans are making of all this – there’s a lot of “meh” and many of his supporters are loving it because “he’s actually doing what he promised he was going to do”. Current polling suggests that his combative stance on tariffs and Ukraine are not making much of a dent in his approval ratings – they are still above what they were at any point in his first terms! * SO WHAT? * If consumers see prices boom because of the tariffs, they may lose patience as many voted for Trump in protest at the higher cost of living. Maybe this is why he’s been so keen to get these tariffs in now because the more time he gets the more chance he has of things calming down before next year’s mid-term elections.

In other non-Trump related news 😅, China sets growth target around 5% despite threat from US tariffs (Financial Times, Joe Leahy, Eleanor Olcott, Kathrin Hille and Arjun Neil Alim) shows that China is sticking with its 5% GDP growth target for the full year despite the slowdown of its domestic economy and ongoing Trump shenanigans and Germany’s Merz strikes ‘game-changing’ deal to boost defence spending (Financial Times, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany and Laura Pitel) reflects chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz’s deal with his likely coalition partner to relax the country’s strict borrowing rules that will allow it to fund its armed forces and give military assistance to Ukraine. It also looks like the future coalition will make another change to the constitution that will allow the setting up of a €500bn fund for infrastructure over ten years. * SO WHAT? * This just goes to show how desperate times are calling for desperate fiscal measures and how Trump’s antics can actually galvanise. This is a MASSIVE shift for Germany, which is normally very conservative on fiscal stimulus.

Back home, Reeves warns trade war will harm UK’s economy even if it avoids tariffs (Financial Times, Sam Fleming) shows that the chancellor is warning that the UK economy may take some collateral damage even if we’re not directly slapped with higher tariffs from the US. She said that we would be affected by a slowdown in global trade, by slower GDP growth and higher-than-expected inflation. * SO WHAT? * TBH, this whole Trump debacle could play in Reeves’s favour because attention is at least temporarily being taken away from the effect that her Budget has had on British businesses and employment. I guess there’s no harm (from her point of view) to manage expectations down and blaming it on someone else.

Trump Administration Readies Order to Bolster U.S. Shipbuilders, Punish China (Wall Street Journal, Paul Berger) shows that Trump and chums are putting the finishing touches on an executive order that aims to boost US shipbuilding and severely hamper China’s dominance of the global maritime industry. A draft summary says that there will be 18 measures that will punish ships and cranes entering the US and establish a new office at the National Security Council that will boost the domestic maritime sector. The details could still change, but Trump is focused on reviving commercial and military shipbuilding in America. * SO WHAT? * This sounds quite good on the one hand, but it does sound like it’s going to be VERY expensive…

In the meantime Britain braces for flood of cheap Chinese cars as trade war spreads (Daily Telegraph, Melissa Lawford) echoes something I’ve been saying a lot recently – that we’re going to be flooded with cheap Chinese EVs (among other things). Putting it bluntly, manufacturers are going to keep producing goods – and if it’s too much hassle to export them to the US, they’ve got to go somewhere! I would have thought that we are going to have a lot of product dumped on us over here as a result and that could be disastrous for any domestic player (particularly manufacturers) who compete with the Chinese. Conversely, this will be great for consumers! Things might get a bit awkward, though, if Trump wants to get the UK and EU to follow his lead on more China tariffs/sanctions. For those unsure of buying Chinese cars, it’s possible that we’ll also be flooded with German cars because they will want to offload their goods as well.

In DOGE-related updates, Trump administration quietly amends government lay-offs directive (Financial Times, Joe Miller) shows that the government has clarified a previous directive that prompted the firing of 20,000+ government workers who had been employed for less than a year. The original directive asked for such lists to be compiled but this was then interpreted as being an order to fire them. The government department has since stated that individual government agencies were still responsible “for such personal actions” and came in response to a federal judge last week barring the Office of Personnel Management (the vehicle favoured by Musk for making the cuts) from firing probationary workers at specific government departments. Meanwhile,  Doge snaps at the ankles of government consultants (Financial Times, Lex) suggests that consulting firms could be next for the firing squad treatment as cosy contracts with government departments are now being scrutinised. The General Services Administration, which

handles procurement for the US government, has apparently requested that all federal agencies list and justify existing consultancy contracts from ten companies by the end of this week! Booz Allen Hamilton looks most exposed…this is going to hurt!

Back in the UK, Worker protections to be toughened in UK employment bill (Financial Times, Delphine Strauss and Jim Pickard) shows that the government continues to be set on shooting itself in the foot as ministers will push for 200 new amendments to the government’s employment rights bill that will strengthen union and workers’ rights in areas including unfair dismissal, zero-hours contracts and sick pay. There appear to be no substantive changes in parts of the bill that are most concerning for employers, including day one protection against unfair dismissal, a near ban on fire-and-rehire and an upgrade of union rights.* SO WHAT? * Of course the intent is good here – who wouldn’t want better pay, better working conditions and improved job security – but there’s also the downside that when things aren’t going so well, companies will have less room for manoeuvre, to ensure their survival. I think that we are basically lining ourselves up for four years of strike action that will intensify precisely at a time that we need it least – when the economy is slowing down. This will affect ALL of us – not just the employers.

I thought that Global vineyard values tumble as consumers put down the bottle (Financial Times, Alan Livsey) was interesting because it highlights something that the global beverages industry has been seeing for a while now – people are drinking less wine than they used to! Knight Frank released a report saying that vineyard values have plummeted by up to a third over the last year because the whole industry is suffering a global consumption slowdown. Wine producers in New Zealand and the US are suffering badly as they battle changing tastes – particularly those of Gen Zs, who are abstaining completely, electing to drinking low or no-alcoholic beverages and/or not drinking as much as older generations. In a shocking statistic from Nielsen, French Gen Zs consume about 50% as much wine per capita as older Millennials! The industry is also having to cope with a sharp fall in demand from China and grape gluts in some regions. * SO WHAT? * All of this has hit wine producers like Constellation Brands (of the US) and Treasury Wine Estates (from Australia) but I would also think that this will be hitting wine retailers, like Majestic Wine, particularly badly.

Judge denies Musk’s attempt to immediately block OpenAI’s conversion to for-profit entity (Financial Times, George Hammond) shows that Musk’s attempt to derail OpenAI’s progress to becoming a for-profit organisation has hit a speedbump as a US Federal Court blocked his request for an injunction to pause the transition to a for-profit company. He had hoped to stall its progress until the conclusion of a broader trial that is now scheduled to be heard this autumn. The drama continues…

AI copyright wars need a market solution (Financial Times, the editorial board) takes a look at problems and a potential solution to the knotty problem of how to advance AI whilst at the same time not killing creatives. Thus far, generative AI has relied on scraping material from the whole of the internet, largely for free. However, creatives’ voices have been getting louder about the breach of intellectual property rights while governments and tech companies have argued that the need for the accelerated development of AI should take precedence. This article suggested that licensing markets could be a solution where creators could be compensated by AI companies and that creators keep control over their copyright, which incentivises them to continue creating. * SO WHAT? * I think that this approach makes a lot of sense because it means that AI models won’t be trained on garbage and creators get compensated for what they do. I wonder whether

we will see the growth of “content agents” who tout content to different AI companies in the way that football agents represent individual football players (this is pure speculation on my part – I’ve not heard anyone talking about this). An open market would be better for transparency but may be difficult to police. Something needs to be done, though other both sides will suffer.

Then in Starlink rival in talks to boost satellite services to Ukraine (Financial Times, Peggy Hollinger and Maxine Kelly) we see that Eutelsat, the owner of OneWeb, is currently in talks with European governments about providing additional connectivity via satellite to Ukraine. Musk’s Starlink is currently very much in the driving seat when it comes to satellite coverage. US officials have already threatened to switch off Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellites although Musk has denied this. * SO WHAT? * Go Eutelsat! Trump’s belligerence could very much play into Eutelsat’s hands because everyone has pretty much been sleepwalking into Musk’s cosy web. Given that Starlink has quite literally been battle tested in Ukraine, Eutelsat has been fighting a largely losing battle. However, the prospect of being over-reliant on a volatile party (the US) will no doubt jolt Ukraine, and others around Europe, to stop taking the easy route and encourage one of their own to take on the might of Musk. The question is whether this is all too little too late though…

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Dividends down at Saudi Aramco after oil prices slide (The Times, Tom Saunders) shows that the oil giant has decided to cut dividends by a chunky 30% due to a sharp drop in net income. This will be a blow for the government of Saudi Arabia as this dividend is a key source of funding as it owns 81.5% of Aramco while its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, controls another 16%. The company said that this decision was made in light of lower prices and volumes of crude oil sold. * SO WHAT? * This will be a blow to the economy whose deficit is already widening due to weakening oil prices and rising state expenditure.

Elsewhere, Flutter predicts strong growth in US earnings in 2025 (Financial Times, Eri Sugiura) shows that the gambling company is very bullish on its prospects in the US as it reckons it will triple its profits this year in the states in which it operates. This certainly justifies its decision to switch its primary listing from London to New York last year! The company will continue to launch sports betting in more states this year.

Back home, Asda sales plunge again as shoppers desert ailing supermarket (Daily Telegraph, Daniel Woolfson) highlights ongoing weakness in the ailing supermarket as shoppers continued to go elsewhere, according to the latest data from Kantar. It was the only major supermarket to post lower sales in February and continues a period of misery for the grocer after its worst Christmas sales since 2015. In contrast, Lidl, Aldi and Ocado all had a pretty good month! Even Morrisons had a positive month!

Then in Greggs blames slide in sales growth on bad weather as Britons cut back snacks (The Guardian, Sarah Butler) we see that the high street baker posted its worst sales growth since the pandemic as it seems that shoppers are cutting down on snacks. The company tried to put a brave face on it but consumer confidence is vulnerable at the moment. This dip in performance may also be due to the market absorbing its January price rises…

This is quite an entertaining/shocking exchange by a boss and an employee via the employee’s mum whilst on holiday. Although the immediate reaction to this will probably be “what an ****hole of a boss”, I would also add that there is a cautionary tale here. Even if you have approval etc. it is always a good idea to keep reminding colleagues (and bosses!) that you are going away on holiday etc. You don’t have to bash them over the head with it at every opportunity but subtle references like “I’m so looking forward to this” etc. go a long way to avoiding the scenario in the video. That way, if they don’t remember that it’s “on the system”, you can cut them dead pretty quickly. Don’t always assume that because you’ve put it in the system that everyone will remember it.

Donald Trump confirms he will impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Tuesday (Financial Times, Aime Williams) shows that Trump is following through on his tariff threats, adding that there was “no room” for last minute negotiation and Stocks fall after Donald Trump confirms tariffs will go ahead (Financial Times, Arjun Neil Alim) shows that markets around the world reacted badly to it while he signed an executive order to slap additional taxes of 20% on Chinese imports from today.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump renews attacks on Volodymyr Zelenskyy over US backing against Russia (Financial Times, James Politi, Myles McCormick and George Parker) highlights ongoing needle between the US and Ukraine as he criticised Ukraine’s president for saying on Sunday night that the war with Russia was “very very far away” and then US suspends military aid to Ukraine (Financial Times, James Politi, Felicia Schwartz and Myles McCormick) shows the consequence of that. There was immediate backlash and Washington seems to be suggesting that this move is designed to get Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table (although obviously it’s more designed to force Ukraine to the table). Europeans move towards seizing €200bn of Russian assets (Financial Times, Henry Foy, Paola Tamma, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, Leila Abboud and George Parker) shows that France and Germany, who have up until now been against seizing Russian assets in the EU, are now in talks with other countries in the EU and the UK about how to take control of a sizeable chunk of frozen Russian assets if Moscow was to violate any future ceasefire deal. The idea is that this will hold Russia to an agreement and give Kyiv a guarantee. G7 allies froze roughly €300bn in Central Bank of Russia assets in 2022 following Russia’s invasion. * SO WHAT? * This is an interesting development but it’s a) very late and b) telegraphed to such an extent that it could allow at least some clawback from Russians (well, with anything they have left). I say that you never warn your opponents what you’re going to do in a fight. You just do it and then deal with the aftermath. But then that’s just me 😁

Keir Starmer’s diplomacy on Ukraine wins him plaudits at home (Financial Times, Lucy Fisher and Anna Gross) shows that Starmer has gained a lot of brownie points for sticking up for Zelenskyy from across the political spectrum and how he has dealt with Trump’s tantrums but in the meantime, European defence stocks soar as arms makers expect orders boom (The Guardian, Jasper Jolly) highlights one consequence of all the testosterone talk – that share prices in UK and European defence names like BAE Systems, Rheinmettal, Leonardo and Thales all posted big gains yesterday. Record number of Americans apply for UK citizenship (Financial Times, Amy Borrett) highlights another perhaps related consequence of Trump’s bombastic style – that applications for UK citizenship surged by 40% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024, according to Home Office data.

I have been saying that Trump’s policies are overall inflationary, that this may push up interest rates and that this will strengthen the dollar. Given that US companies may feel emboldened about Trump’s pro-business and “MAGA” agenda, they may feel that conditions are such that they will embark on a mammoth acquisition trail, particularly for assets that won’t be affected by US-China trade tensions. We won’t let US buy up Britain’s defence industry, says Starmer (The Times, Szu Ping Chan) highlights an obvious target for MAGA-happy would-be acquirors – our

defence industry – and that Starmer is keen to keep them British. At the moment, US PE firm Bain Capital is looking at buying Chemring for £1.1bn but previous (successful) takeover targets for American acquirors have included Meggitt and Cobham. * SO WHAT? * Some acquisition approaches have been rebuffed in the past on national security grounds but US acquirors have been allowed to proceed given our long-standing relationship. However, Trump’s recent shenanigans will have made everyone more reticent about allowing too much Americanisation. This may put Starmer in a tricky position in that he will want to nurture the “special relationship” on the one hand but at the same time not give the Americans too much power over our key industries on the other. That’s why Starmer gets paid the big bucks 😁(£170k-ish) although that’s not as much as a NEWLY-QUALIFIED solicitor gets at some US firms in London 🤑 (£180k!).

What are the crypto tokens that Trump wants the US to buy? (Financial Times, Philip Stafford) follows on from what I was saying yesterday about Trump’s announcement of a strategic reserve and takes a closer look at the lesser-known tokens. XRP is the oldest one, created in 2012 by Ripple labs, and is the third largest coin by nominal market value after bitcoin and ethereum. It was created to enable cross-border payments and has faster transaction times than bitcoin. Solana touts itself as a less energy-intensive alternative to bitcoin and is better able to cope with many more transactions per second. The Solana blockchain is the most popular platform for memecoins including, funnily enough, $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoins. Cardano has Ada, which is the world’s ninth biggest cryptocurrency. Although the new crypto tsar David Sacks said on the weekend that he’d sold all of his crypto holdings, there are various other links with the White House. The announcement of a strategic reserve was probably made to coincide with a crypto summit to be held at the end of this week that will be hosted by Sacks. Trump has ‘bailed out’ crypto. The US taxpayer risks being the biggest loser (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) suggests that bitcoin could become Trump’s proxy on his approval rating, particularly as the wider economy is starting to show signs of vulnerability but also that his pro-crypto announcements help his already rich friends (and his own family). Over time, ordinary citizens worried about the price of eggs may not take kindly to Trump making rich people even richer…

Then in oil news, Oil price tumbles after Saudi Arabia and Russia answer Trump’s call to ramp up supply (Daily Telegraph, Alex Singleton) shows that oil prices fell yesterday on news that OPEC+ decided to increase production from April. The plan to increase production has been pushed back by two years versus the original plan but now output will be increased in stages.

Meanwhile, Gas prices rise after blow to hopes of Ukraine deal (The Times, Emily Gosden) shows that gas prices have gone in the opposite direction to oil thanks to the testy exchange between Trump and Zelenskyy on Friday. * SO WHAT? * Prices had been going down on the prospect of Russia being able to supply Europe once more, but at the moment peace is not looking close. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia accounted for about 40% of Europe’s gas imports but this has since dropped to about 15%.

Shop price inflation falls as retailers keep offering discounts (The Times, Emma Taggart) cites the latest BRC and NielsenIQ stats which show that shop price inflation fell in February thanks to discounting among fashion retailers although UK food inflation hits five-month high, industry data shows (Financial Times, Valentina Romei) cites the same report showing that rising prices of butter, cheese and eggs are powering food prices the other way. * SO WHAT? * These figures are viewed by many as an indicator of where inflation might go next. The Bank of England reckons that inflation will rise from the current 3% to 3.7% by the middle of this year, powered by rises in the national living wage and increase in employers’ NICs. The Bank also believes that overall inflation closely correlates to the behaviour of food prices.

On the plus side for consumers, UK rental prices rise at slowest pace in over 3 years, data shows (Financial Times, Valentina Romei) cites the latest data from Zoopla which shows that UK rental prices increased at their slowest annualised rate since July 2021 thanks to tenant demand

calming down. * SO WHAT? * This will no doubt provide some respite to tenants who’ve seen three years of steep rent rises but then average monthly rents are still £1,284 per month, which is not an insignificant sum! Spare a thought for Londoners, though, where average monthly rents are £2,227 😱😱😱!

On the other side of the Atlantic, Walgreens Nears Roughly $10 Billion Deal to Go Private (Wall Street Journal, Cara Lombardo, Lauren Thomas and Anna Wilde Matthews) shows that the owner of Boots is close to being bought by PR firm Sycamore Partners. There are rumours that Sycamore could pay $10bn for it and if a deal happens, it could complete as soon as this Thursday! If this went ahead it’s thought that the US business would be kept and everything else would be sold off (or floated). This will add to the cloud of uncertainty already hanging over Boots…

Taiwan chip champion invests $100bn in US amid tariff and China threats (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) highlights TSMC’s announcement that it will spend at least $100bn over four years on the construction of five cutting-edge chip manufacturing facilities in the US. Trump was at the announcement and said that this was one of the biggest foreign direct investments in the US and would create up to 25,000 high-paying jobs. * SO WHAT? * This sounds like another serious step by Taiwan (TSMC is Taiwan’s biggest company) to appease Trump and ensure his continued support for defensive cover as the island democracy looks extremely vulnerable to the Chinese.

Elsewhere, Anthropic’s valuation triples to $61.5bn in bumper AI funding round (Financial Times, George Hammond) shows that the AI investment frenzy is still alive and well after the DeepSeek shock because the four-year-old AI start-up has just managed to raise $3.5bn in a funding round that has given it an implied valuation of over $60bn. This comes just one week after it unveiled its latest SI model, Claude 3.7 Sonnet. The money will be used to develop new models and fund expansion into Asia and Europe.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, EU gives carmakers ‘breathing space’ on pollution target as EV sales slump (The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan) shows that the EC president, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced that European car makers will be given an extra two years to hit this year’s pollution target as part of a wider retreat on green deal climate policies. This effectively means that if they don’t sell enough clean vehicles this year, they can make up for it by selling more over the next two years. * SO WHAT? * I guess this is a decent enough compromise between carmakers (who will get killed by fines related to hitting EV quotas if the rules are applied in their current form) and environmentalists (who want everyone to stick to the original targets). I think this will give makers a decent go because although EV demand is sluggish now it is bound to keep going up as we get nearer to the petrol/diesel car deadline.

Then in BYD pledges to work with rival Tesla to combat petrol cars (Financial Times, Kana Inagaki, Edward White and Gloria Li) we see that Chinese EV makers, BYD, are willing to to work with Tesla by sharing key EV and autonomous driving technologies to hasten the switch to electrification and Chinese Automaker BYD to Raise $5.6 Billion Via Share Placement (Wall Street Journal, Kimberley Kao) highlights plans to raise $5.6bn via a share placement to boost its R&D and accelerate overseas expansion. * SO WHAT? * I have to say that I don’t think non-Chinese car companies are going to be all that willing to share information with the Chinese as a default – but if it’s a case of share or die, car manufacturers will probably share!

I have never seen a pizza made like this before! I wonder what the Italians 🤌 would have to say about this??

UK and France aim for new Ukraine peace deal involving initial 1-month truce (Financial Times, George Parker, Ben Hall, Henry Foy and Leila Abboud) shows the UK and France trying to pick up the pieces after Friday night’s devastation at the White House between the suit-wearers and the bloke who’s country is under siege. Starmer held a summit in London yesterday where the overall message was that Europe would stand behind Ukraine and both Starmer and Macron are getting behind a deal that would involve the US providing cover for European troops. The leaders are suggesting a truce for one month that would help establish confidence on both sides. Details are still being discussed.

Ugly showdown or lovefest, Trump is all about the message (Financial Times, Jemima Kelly) is an interesting article which observes that Trump is all about the optics, keeps everyone on their toes by being unpredictable and is 100% focused on getting his message across. Nigel Farage once said that “you should always take Trump seriously, but not necessarily always take him literally”, but the problem is that it’s difficult to tell when you should take him literally! He has surrounded himself with excellent communicators who are all “on-message” and no-one is able to oppose him right now. It will be interesting to see how long this momentum lasts as Trump really is making the most of this honeymoon period in office.

Then in Putin ally pushes deal to restart Nord Stream 2 with US backing (Financial Times, Max Seddon, Henry Foy and Felicia Schwartz) we see that an ex-spy and good buddy of Putin, Matthias Warnig, is looking to restart the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe with the backing of US investors, something that would have been unthinkable until recently. Warnig ran Nord Stream 2’s parent company for Gazprom until 2023. European officials are aware of the efforts and have expressed concern on the matter. * SO WHAT? * In theory, if this plan went ahead, the US would have a massive say over energy supplies to Europe but in order to go ahead, the US would have to lift sanctions on Russia, Russia would have to agree to start-up sales it shut-down during the war and Germany would have to allow the gas to flow to buyers in Europe. So far, no-one has made any kind of comment regarding these talks but I would not be surprised if things moved this way. If gas DID start to flow again, I wonder whether Europe (and especially Germany) would get addicted to cheap Russian power again…

Meanwhile, Israel halts aid to Gaza as Hamas rejects revised ceasefire proposal (Financial Times, Neri Zilber) highlights a deterioration in the ceasefire  as Israel cut off all humanitarian aid to Gaza because Hamas rejected a new proposal for an extension to the ceasefire. * SO WHAT? * Both sides have been accusing each other regarding violations of the deal and have not agreed on terms that would extend the truce. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio just authorised the delivery of $3bn in military assistance to Israel, reversing the “partial arms embargo” implemented by Biden’s administration. What a contrast between America’s attitude to Ukraine and Israel!

Given Trump’s penchant for a tariff, I thought I’d mention Track One Car Part’s Journey Through the U.S., Canada and Mexico—Before Tariffs (Wall Street Journal, Vipal Monga, Santiago Perez, Roque Ruiz and Emma Brown) because it provides a handy visual representation of how often just one engine part travels across national borders, showing just how much tariffs are going to hit manufacturers. The structure of the tariffs is going to be key here but if they are charged every time they cross the border, there’s going to be a lot of trouble! If you can get access to this, it’s definitely worth having a look!

Then in Cryptocurrencies rocket as Trump unveils US strategic reserve (The Times, Mehreen Khan) we see that cryptocurrencies boomed just a few minutes after Trump named the first five digital tokens that will make up a US strategic “crypto reserve”. * SO WHAT? * XRP, cardano, solana, bitcoin and ethereum all saw their values boom on the news after recent weakness. This is all part of Trump’s bid to “make sure the US is the Crypto Capital of the World”, according to his post on Truth Social. Questions still remain about how this reserve is going to work and whether the government is going to guarantee investor losses. I would suggest that if it does the latter, crypto will go moonbound…

‘Trump hasn’t done anything’: Shoppers’ hopes for inflation dashed (The Times, Louisa Clarence-Smith) highlights American consumer sentiment as Trump’s entry to the White House has thus far failed to yield benefits to the ordinary person shopping for groceries in the form of lower prices (on the campaign trail he said “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again” and followed that up in his inaugural address when he said he would “rapidly bring down prices”). Consumer spending accounts for over two thirds of US economic activity – and it dropped unexpectedly in January, the first fall since March 2023. Americans delay home improvements in latest blow to US housing market (Financial Times, Patrick Temple-West) drives home this message of overall concern as residential modelling/home construction companies like Jeld-Wen Holdings, AO Smith and BlueLinx have all suffered from a drop in demand for US home improvements. This is due to tariff concerns and Trump’s clampdown on undocumented workers prompting consumer caution which has prompted sluggish activity in the property market, which in turn has led to poor performance in DIY-related companies. * SO WHAT? * Trump’s administration needs to deliver for the less affluent as well as the rich but his policies are inflationary. I would have thought that there will be more pain to come…

Back in the UK, Weak UK consumer spending is denting business mood, says CBI (The Guardian, Graeme Wearden) cites the latest growth indicator from the CBI which reflects UK private sector activity falling in the three months to February at a faster rate than it fell in the quarter to January. Private sector firms also reckon that activity will continue to fall over the current quarter. A separate survey by BDO showed that mid-sized companies were most concerned about restrictions on international expansion and ever-higher labour force costs. * SO WHAT? * There seem to be mixed messages here. For the most part, businesses (especially those exposed to lower paid workers) are saying how concerned they are about growth and then, on the other, they’re saying that they are optimistic about their prospects! I think this means that we are perhaps reaching a turning point where indicators are catching up with each other…

Elsewhere, Prada edges closer to buying Versace for about €1.5bn (Financial Times, Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli, Arash Massoudi and Ivan Levingston) shows that Prada is currently looking most likely to buy Versace from Capri Holdings for around €1.5bn after months of on-off talks. Capri, which also owns brands including Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo, initially sought a price of €3bn but has been looking to sell Versace for a while. * SO WHAT? * OK so it’s not a done deal yet, but if if went ahead it could be quite interesting to bring Versace’s in-your-face flair to Prada’s “demure”.

Ugly shoes can keep hitting their stride (Financial Times, Lex) highlights the current weakness of brands such as Hoka, Ugg and Teva (brands owned by Deckers Brands), On Holding and Birkenstock after a couple of really stellar years. Investors have sold the shares despite decent sales and underlying demand being solid. * SO WHAT? * The main problem here is that over a third of the footwear sold in the US comes from China, which is about to get clobbered by more tariffs. Have investors been too pessimistic here given ongoing decent demand for this footwear??

Then in Forget McDonald’s. This Chinese Fast-Food Chain Is Now the World’s Biggest. (Wall Street Journal, Stu Woo) we see that China’s Mixue has just topped McDonald’s for the title of world’s biggest food and beverage chain by number of locations! It has outlets across Asia and Australia and has more than doubled the number of its locations to 45,000 stores in just three years – and intends to keep going! The bubble tea chain floated in Hong Kong today and boomed on its market debut. It wants to expand globally but currently 90% of its stores are in China.

AI companies race to use ‘distillation’ to produce cheaper models (Financial Times, Cristina Criddle and Melissa Heikkila) highlights an interesting trend prompted by the DeepSeek shock, that even AI giants like OpenAI, Microsoft and Meta are looking closely at the successful “distillation” process used by DeepSeek. The idea is to use this process to create AI models that can be cheaper for consumers and businesses to buy/use. In “distillation”, companies take a bigger “teacher” LLM to teach their smaller “student” LLM which transfers the knowledge of the bigger one to the smaller one but at a much lower cost. The big models suck up loads of data and computing power but with distillation, developers and businesses can get the same capability but

at a much lower price which pushes costs way down and allows developers to run AI models quickly on devices. OK so the capability is not as good, but when you consider the cost-benefit, distillation is a no-brainer…

Then in Microsoft to shut down video-calling pioneer Skype (Financial Times, Rafe Uddin and Tim Bradshaw) we see that an important chapter in video conferencing is closing down 14 years after Microsoft bought the company for $8.5bn. The service will be retired in May and it will start migrating customers over to the free version of its Teams app. Microsoft launched its Teams chat and video calling app seven years ago. Evolution, eh?

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Europe’s biggest battery storage project goes live in Scotland (The Times, Emily Gosden) shows that Zenobe’s site at Blackhillock, between Inverness and Aberdeen, is going live and promises to absorb any surplus wind power to supply 200 megawatts of electricity. It’s due to be expanded to 300 megawatts by next year which means it’ll be able to supply every home in Scotland. * SO WHAT? * Zenobe’s project will “significantly reduce the amount of wasted clean energy” and will lower household bills. We need more of this as I believe that it’s as important to be able to hang on to electricity as it is to generate it in the first place in order to smooth demand of a notoriously volatile energy source.

Then in Centuries-old leasehold system to be abolished in England and Wales (The Guardian, Kiran Stacey) we see that the housing minister has promised to abolish the ancient leasehold system in England and Wales and make it easier for homeowners to jointly own the buildings that they live in. Some freeholders and building managers have been accused of charging for services that don’t exist and failing to make repairs that leaseholders have paid for. A white paper on this will be published today with various suggestions on how to improve things but we’ll have to see how this goes as it’s not the first time promises have been made on this and not come to anything…

This looks like a very simple recipe, although it does require a bit of chopping! Looks good though, don’t you think?? The fuller version is here (and it gives you the quantities etc)…

Vladimir Putin hopeful after US talks on Ukraine ceasefire (Financial Times, Anastasia Stognei) shows that progress is apparently being made on peace in Ukraine as Putin described initial contact with the Trump administration as “inspiring a certain degree of hope”. In the meantime, France and Britain have been talking about plans for a air power focussed European “reassurance force” in postwar Ukraine, supported by a US “backstop”. Trump has thus far refused to commit to this. In the meantime, Starmer will host representatives from 18 countries this coming Sunday to discuss next moves regarding peacekeepers in Ukraine. The discussions roll on…

Things have taken a surprising turn in After chiding US allies, Donald Trump lavishes praise on ‘special’ Keir Starmer (Financial Times, George Parker and James Politi) where Trump has taken an apparent break from slagging off his allies and praised a “fantastic Britain”, his “special” guest, Kier Starmer and even Starmer’s “beautiful accent” 🤣. Trump also talked about the prospect of a US-UK trade deal, something that has long been mooted but never actioned. US and UK in talks on trade deal that could spare Britain from tariffs (Financial Times, George Parker, Felicia Schwartz and Lucy Fisher) cites Trump as saying “We could very well end up with a real trade deal where the tariffs wouldn’t be necessary” and that the UK was a “very different place” from the EU. We’ll just have to wait and see but Business confidence hits post-election high in February (The Times, Mehreen Khan) also provides some welcome respite from the general gloom hanging over British businesses at the moment as the latest Lloyds Banking Group survey highlighted a strong bounceback in the confidence of businesses to a level not seen since August 2024! This boost was pretty much across the board with services, manufacturing and construction all reporting greater optimism this month. * SO WHAT? * I just wonder whether the discrepancy between this survey and, say, that of the recent considerably gloomier one from the BCC (and other sources) means that sentiment has actually bottomed out and is now on the turn. As for the Trump developments, they seem to have come out of nowhere, don’t you think?? I wonder whether we will get better treatment by Big Cheeto because treating the  UK well could

potentially further disrupt the EU by showing that it pays to break away from the herd – and splitting the EU seems to be a goal of Trump’s. We may even benefit further because the EU will need us to be onside, as well as a “friendly” socialist-led country, to keep the union together.

Meanwhile, the tariff chat keeps on coming in Trump threatens China with additional 10% tariff in escalation of trade war (The Guardian, Callum Jones) where it looks like Trump is willing to escalate the trade war with Beijing while Tariffs on Mexico and Canada start on Tuesday, says Donald Trump (The Times, Tom Saunders) shows that he’s about to follow through on his threats of imposing 25% duties on imports from his biggest trading partners. Trump’s threatened 25% tariffs on EU imports could trigger ‘economic turmoil (The Guardian, Phillip Inman) cites a prognosis from The Kiel Institute, a German thinktank, which believes that the tariffs will snuff out growth and send inflation through the roof. If you want to keep tabs on what tariffs are happening where and when, then I would strongly recommend that you look at Trump tracker: US tariffs (Financial Times, Alan Smith, William Crofton, Jonathan Vincent, Oliver Hawkins and Keith Fray), which does a good job of collating the latest developments in a very useable way. Stocks lose more ground as jitters grow over tariffs and economy (Financial Times, George Steer and William Sandlund) shows that the markets didn’t like Trump’s latest outbursts on tariffs and weakened considerably.

BP’s chief aims to more than double market value to $200bn (Financial Times, Malcolm Moore and Costas Mourselas) follows on from the news of BP’s ongoing efforts to focus on core operations and centres on the chief exec’s ambition to double its market value within five years! * SO WHAT? * This was the level which it peaked at just before Deepwater Horizon in 2010. CEO Murray Auchincloss said that this could be achieved by concentrating on oil and gas and ditching plans to become a green energy company. He said that there would be some financial pain initially as it repositions itself.

OpenAI reveals GPT-4.5 amid flurry of new AI model releases (Financial Times, Cristina Criddle) shows that OpenAI has now joined its rivals in releasing an upgraded version of its AI model, GPT-4.5. It hallucinates less than the previous version, GPT-4o, and follows on from the latest launches of Anthropic and xAI.

Then in Indonesia set to lift iPhone ban after deal with Apple on local investment (Financial Times, A. Anantha Lakshmi and Diana Mariska) we see that Apple managed to get south-east Asia’s biggest economy to reinstate the sales of its iPhone 16 by agreeing to invest $320m into Indonesia via a couple of new factories. * SO WHAT? * Apple’s flagship device was banned from sale in Indonesia last October because the company fell short of a regulation that stipulates that 40% of smartphone components must be sourced locally. Since then, Apple has been in negotiation with Indonesia’s government. The new factories will be the first ones in Indonesia for Apple although it also has four developer academies there to train students and engineers to develop apps.

Microsoft urges Donald Trump to rethink AI chip export controls (Financial Times, Rafe Uddin and Michael Acton) shows that the tech giant is warning Trump that pushing too hard for export controls on AI chips will force allies – particularly Israel, India and Singapore – to use Chinese technology instead. The restrictions, which were drafted in the final days of Biden’s

administration, are due to come into force in May. They make it harder for Chinese companies to get around US export controls by sourcing them from third countries and impose limits on chip export volumes on all but a few small countries in a three-tiered classification system. * SO WHAT? * The EU and Nvidia are among other parties who are also opposed to export controls, particularly as Chinese companies like Huawei are improving their chip offerings all the time.

In media news, UK advertising giant loses ground to French rival as Trump tariffs bite (Daily Telegraph, James Warrington) shows that WPP has been hit by the loss in economic momentum and Trump tariff uncertainty as revenues dropped by over 20% in China in the final quarter while it also saw weakened sales in the UK and US. Customers have cut back on ad spending amid the economic turmoil unleashed by Trump although WPP says advertisers returning to X after US election (Financial Times, Daniel Thomas) shows that some advertisers are adapting their spending patterns to take into account Musk’s presence in Washington. * SO WHAT? * Although conditions are undoubtedly tricky out there, WPP is lagging the performance of rivals such as Publicis who are facing the same issues. WPP will also face more competition in the future with the advent of an even bigger competitor when Omnicom and Interpublic complete their $31bn mega-merger.

In Hiscox predicts $170 million loss from Los Angeles wildfires (The Times, Ben Martin) we see that the FTSE100 insurer has estimated its exposure to last month’s wild fires in its annual results yesterday. It has based this on an estimate of industry-wide exposure of $40bn. It believes that $150m of the $170m will be via its reinsurance division (this is the business where insurers are insured. Don’t ask me who insures the reinsurers – or indeed who insures the reininsurers’ insurers’ insurers 🤣). American insurers are, unsurprisingly, taking most of the hit. Clearly this figure is an estimate at the moment. It seems to me that these estimates are often too low…

Elsewhere, Man Group shares rise after profits increase (Financial Times, Costas Mourselas) shows that the share price of the world’s biggest listed hedge fund company got a nice 5% bump up thanks to rising profits despite some disappointing investment performances. Its quant strategies failed to shine for the second consecutive year but the performance of its 1783 hedge fund was very strong.

Then in Stripe bounces back to $90bn-plus valuation after surge in AI demand (Financial Times, George Hammond) we see that the payments and billing company has come back from the wilderness and now has a valuation of over $90bn thanks to a surge in demand from AI companies. The latest move takes it closer to its all time high of the $95bn it reached in 2021. The company has been profitable for the last two years and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future, according to the founders. * SO WHAT? * This is an impressive comeback for the company that saw its valuation plunge from $95bn in 2021 to $50bn in 2023 thanks to booming interest rates and economic uncertainty caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fellow fintechs Chime and Klarna have also staged a recovery but, unlike them, it has said that it will stay private and not go down the IPO route (well, it stopped short of ruling this out entirely!).

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, ‘Hiring is back on’ for UK consulting (Financial Times, Ellesheva Kissin) shows that consultancy firms are now emerging from the crisis mode of the last two years where they have generally been wielding the axe and are now gearing up for growth as they expect advisory business to pick up. * SO WHAT? * A survey by Statista showed that 67% of respondents believe AI to be the biggest growth area for UK consultancies for the next three years as they help clients with their respective AI strategies. US-based training company Management Consulted said that, after a major contraction in 2023 and tiny rebound last year, hiring momentum has picked up noticeably. More M&A and IPOs should also help business pick up!

Staying with professional services, KPMG to Launch U.S. Law Firm Following Court Approval (Wall Street Journal, Mark Maurer) shows that the Big Four accountancy firm has just been given the go ahead by Arizona’s Supreme Court to set up a law practice. KMPG Law will allow the company to expand its legal offerings considerably. On the downside, the court said that it won’t be allowed to provide US legal services to audit clients anywhere in the world to prevent conflicts of interest. * SO WHAT? * As a result of this decision, KPMG will be the first Big Four accountant to set up a legal practice in the US! It already has practices in roughly 80 countries including the UK and Australia, mainly via hoovering up smaller law firms. This sounds pretty interesting don’t you think? Although there aren’t supposed to be cross-selling opportunities between audit and legal services within KPMG itself you would have thought that there’s nothing stopping accountancy firms having reciprocal arrangements with pure law firms where they could recommend legal and accountancy services to each other.

Elsewhere, Rolls-Royce hits turnaround targets two years early under boss ‘Turbo’ Tufan (Daily Telegraph, Matt Oliver) shows that the engineering company has hit profits targets that were originally identified for 2027! The company continues to get leaner and more profitable under CEO Tufan “Turbo” Erginbilgic’s leadership. Profits and margins for 2024 were up and the company was confident enough to dish out a chunky dividend to shareholders as well as announcing a share buyback. The CEO also jacked up the company’s mid-term targets for good

measure. * SO WHAT? * This is a great performance but there are still issues that the company needs to address. Its Trent 1000 engines which power British Airways’ fleet of Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets are showing signs of excess wear  and the company has struggled to keep up with demand for replacement engines and parts, meaning that some planes have had to be grounded. Also, ongoing supply chain problems have taken their toll on Rolls-Royce. Still, the renegotiation of contract terms with airline customers continues to be favourable and the prospects for its defence and power systems businesses are good.

Landsec shifts focus from offices to homes (The Times, Tom Howard) highlights an interesting change for the landlord more commonly associated with office space – it announced that it would shift its focus to rental housing! It said yesterday that it plans to sell off its remaining retail and leisure parks assets within the next year or two and then at least halve its investment in offices after the current pipeline of developments are completed. The money generated will be used to buy more “destination” shopping malls and fund the creation of a “£2bn-plus residential platform”. * SO WHAT? * OK so Landsec is somewhat late to the party but at least it is moving forward! Hopefully, this should be good news for residential tenants who are facing sky-high rents due to the relative lack of rental properties. This change in direction won’t have an overnight impact, though…

Then in Ocado to cut more than 500 research jobs as focus turns to AI (The Times, Isabella Fish) we see that Ocado is streamlining its R&D workforce in the face of a tricky outlook for its automated grocery warehouse business. The company’s share price cratered by 18% yesterday as it announced redundancies, another annual loss and weak guidance. * SO WHAT? * This is not good. After a period of hype and excitement surrounding the increasing popularity of its automated warehouses, there has been a definite lull and the company’s share price is down by over 40% year-on-year. It needs to sign a few new deals for sure. This could turn its fortunes around and round out an improved performance in its retail arm.

This card trick guy is impressive! And he’s hardly even looking at what he’s doing because he’s busy talking to camera!

Donald Trump threatens to impose 25% tariffs on EU goods (Financial Times, James Politi, Kana Inagaki and Barbara Moens) highlights Trump’s latest threat as he turns his attention to the EU – a bloc that was formed, as he puts it, “to screw the United States”. He is talking about 25% tariffs “on cars and all other things”. The EC were talking a good game last night about retaliation but of course that could just be bravado. He’s threatened a lot so far and he threatened a lot in his first term in office but not all of what he said has come to fruition. All I’d say is that this time round he’s got more clout and has more of an idea about what he’s doing so he is definitely more dangerous.

In Donald Trump cancels Chevron’s oil licence in Venezuela (Financial Times, Joe Daniels and Jamie Smyth) we see that the Big Cheeto has decided to reverse Biden’s “concession agreement” on Venezuela’s energy sector which meant that Chevron was still able to pump and export oil in the country. Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica, reckons that this could cause GDP growth to fall from 3.2% to 2% this year. * SO WHAT? * This is going to make a big dent in Venezuela’s oil industry, potentially almost halving production. This is because Chevron supplies diluent which is used to dilute the heavy crude oil that Venezuela produces and is key to extraction and transportation. This is going to be tough for Chevron as they were “only” following the rules and they argue that if they are moved out, the Chinese and/or Russians will just move in.

BP blames ‘misplaced’ faith in green transition for its renewed focus on fossil fuels (The Guardian, Jillian Ambrose) further highlights BP’s move away from its net zero commitments.

The company said that it would boost investment in oil and gas to $10bn per year whilst simultaneously cut more than $5bn from its previously stated green investment plans. * SO WHAT? * The wheels have been falling off BP’s net zero plans for some time now. Its share price has fallen by almost 25% over the last two years while rivals saw theirs increase as they doubled down on oil and gas production. Pressure is growing to focus on its oil and gas business and de-emphasise its green agenda – and now activist investor Elliott Management is thought to be pushing for the company to sell off assets to release more value and better focus on its core businesses. I’ve always been sceptical of oil majors’ eco-credentials because it’s just not how they’ve made their money. Maybe there’s room for some kind of holding company that buys up oil companies’ renewable assets to make a decently-sized entity that can actually DO something.

Elsewhere, Rout wipes $800bn from crypto market as bitcoin slump deepens (Financial Times, Nikou Asgari) brings our attention to further weakness in global cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin fell again yesterday, bringing is losses over the past month to 15% but other tokens have fallen even further. * SO WHAT? * At least some of this will have been due to crypto fans being disappointed by the lack of pro-crypto policies that were implied in Trump’s election campaign. Just in case you were wondering, the $TRUMP memecoin is now 83% down from its high. There has also been a major outflow from bitcoin ETFs. Maybe Trump is just busy with other things at the moment…

In Nvidia revenues jump almost 80% on booming AI chip sales (Financial Times, Michael Acton) we see that Nvidia’s profits and revenues boomed in the quarter to the end of January thanks to the ongoing general rush to build AI infrastructure. Nvidia passes its quarterly future-shock stress test (Financial Times, Lex) observes that the company continues to do well and that its main customers – which include the likes of Microsoft and Amazon – still have tons of cash they want to spend on building their AI infrastructure. Nvidia’s in the fortunate position at the moment of being pretty much the only one in town for cutting edge processors. That may not always be the case though!

Then in DeepSeek spreads across China with Beijing’s backing (Financial Times, Eleanor Olcott and Wenjie Ding) we see that DeepSeek’s success has prompted a major move in China to adopt the use of its LLMs as companies and state bodies support the new national AI champion. Even

previously conservative government departments have adopted it and one doctor at a public hospital in Hubei province said that the institution’s leadership has ordered that DeepSeek should be used to decide on patient treatment if two doctors have conflicting views! * SO WHAT? * DeepSeek is spreading like wildfire across China. That will be good AND bad IMO. It will be good in the sense that it means that it will be able to absorb more data that will help to improve its capabilities but it will be bad if something goes wrong. All it could take is for a dodgy medical decision that results in a patient’s death, for example, to burst the bubble. However, for now, it is enjoying mass-adoption! It is worth noting that DeepSeek itself isn’t benefiting all that much financially from all this because its models can be downloaded for free and then run on a public cloud or private servers, which means that providers including AliCloud and Huawei Cloud will be benefitting the most from a big take-up.

Amazon bets savings from automation can help fuel AI spending boom (Financial Times, Rafe Uddin) shows that Amazon is hoping that its massive spend in robotics will generate significant savings that can be used instead for its push in AI. The etailing giant has been engaging in major cost cuts over the last year or two, enabling massive investments in data centre capacity to power profits at Amazon Web Services. Apart from this, the retail business is still profitable but the company predicts more modest growth across the group over Q1 this year thanks to a strong dollar. Meanwhile, Amazon to charge households for new Alexa (Daily Telegraph, Matthew Field) shows that the company is going to start charging for its new version of Alexa. The Alexa+ service could cost up to $19.99 per month but it will be able to deal with complex requests, make online orders and oversee smart home gadgets. * SO WHAT? * I get the push for AI infrastructure as Amazon runs its whole business on a robust infrastructure! However, as for the Alexa+ feature, it all sounds great but I am very sceptical about take-up. It’s quite expensive and does stuff that we can already do.

Elsewhere, T.J. Maxx Owner Expects More Growth as Off-Price Bucks Retail Slump (Wall Street Journal, Dean Seal) shows that TKX, the owner of T.J. Maxx (which is what T.K Maxx is called in America), reckons that it’ll continue to see strong demand this year for its discount

retailers. Q4 profits were good and consumer worries about inflation are helping to power budget-friendly retailers such as T.J. Maxx, hence the positive outlook. Meanwhile, Lowe’s Reports Better-Than-Expected Quarterly Sales (Wall Street Journal, Denny Jacob) shows that the DIY retailer reported a small fall in total sales as performance proved to be a mixed bag. On the one hand, sales in its professionals business were good (helped, for example, by rebuilding efforts in the aftermath of recent hurricanes) but consumers were cautious about pulling the trigger on big ticket building projects. Given that 70% of the company’s revenues come from DIY customers, this is a serious consideration!

Back home, Shopping centres are making a comeback, says Hammerson (The Times, Tom Howard) cites real estate company Hammerson as saying that malls are making a resurgence in popularity with retailers because the gap in the cost of selling goods online versus selling them in shops is narrowing thanks to falling shop rents and rising warehouse costs. This sounds like an interesting trend, don’t you think! It certainly makes for a change from the usual gloom that UK retail newsflow is serving up these days…

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, U.K. Car Manufacturing Fell in January as Demand Softened in Key Markets (Wall Street Journal, Dominic Chopping) cites the latest figures from the SMMT which show falling production as a function of sluggish demand in key markets, resulting in the delayed rollout of new models. The process of factories retooling to take on the production of EVs is still a work in progress but you would have thought that global trade uncertainty is going to continue to put pressure on this sector.

Then in Aston Martin delays first battery electric vehicle again and plans job cuts (The Guardian, Jasper Jolly) we see that the sportscar maker has delayed the launch of its first EV and announced plans to cut 5% of its global workforce in the pursuit of profits. The company said that it would prioritise plug-in hybrids while the first pure EV will come out in “the latter part of this decade”. * SO WHAT? * This is not really surprising given the general mood among car makers – and it makes particular sense in Aston Martin’s case given that it has a perennial problem in making money despite its obvious charms…

Then in Vauxhall owner Stellantis burns through €6bn as profits fall 70% (The Times, Robert Lea) we see that the Europe’s second biggest car company behind VW announced a 70% drop in profits last year but is optimistic about the positive effect of a broader EV line-up, the production of its own batteries and team-up with China’s Leapmotor. Still, the company has a lot to prove after a pretty disastrous year!

In air travel related news, Qantas Reinstates Dividend After Lift in Half-Year Profit (Wall Street Journal, Mike Cherney) shows that Australia’s flag-carrier reported rising profits and was confident enough to pay a dividend for the first time since 2019! Demand was good both

domestically and internationally and net freight revenue was also up. * SO WHAT? * The results were above market consensus and Qantas expects strong travel demand in the second half. The company has has a turbulent few years, so it sounds like things are now turning around!

Then in Heathrow profits jump by 31% as airport pushes for third runway (The Times, Fintan Hogan and Ben Clatworthy) we see that 2024 was a record year for the airport, adding heft to the argument for a third runway. Rachel Reeves is a fan of a third runway but there are many who are against it for environmental reasons.

Budweiser owner AB InBev celebrates global sales despite China slowdown (The Times, Jessica Newman) highlights a strong Q3 performance from the world’s biggest brewer as strong sales of its premium beers managed to offset weakness in the China market. It had also seen “strong consumer demand” for its non-alcoholic beer, Michelob Ultra Zero since its launch in January.

Elsewhere, House price rises triple those of flats since 2020 (The Times, Tom Howard) cites the latest stats from Zoopla which show that house values have increased at three times the rate as those of flats since the beginning of the pandemic as would-be buyers were put off by concerns over cladding and service charges. * SO WHAT? * House prices in the UK have risen by 24% on average over the past five years versus 7% for flats. This gap is now at its widest for over 30 years. I think that one of the most concerning things in this article was the observation that 15% of flats were sold at a lower price than they were purchased at! More food for thought as we hurtle towards the stamp duty deadline change in April…

I’ve never been snowboarding before but I’m pretty sure this set-up isn’t very common. Falling off this particular course would be extremely painful 🥶🥶🥶!

US House passes budget resolution to cut taxes and spending by trillions (Financial Times, Alex Rogers) shows that a budget resolution to cut taxes by $4.5tn and spending by $2tn scraped through the US House of Representatives by 217 votes to 215. * SO WHAT? * Budget resolutions are actually non-binding but they act as an outline of fiscal goals. Democrats described the budget as a “disgrace” while Republicans maintain that it will stimulate growth. The fact remains that the US deficit is big – and it looks like measures like this could just deepen it even further.

In Ukraine agrees minerals deal with US (Financial Times, Christopher Miller, Alex Russell and Gideon Rachman) we see that Kyiv and Washington have agreed on a minerals deal that could potentially improve relations and engender America’s longer-term commitment to the country’s security. The US dropped its demands to get $500bn in potential revenue and president Zelenskyy is due to meet Trump this Friday to formalise everything.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump announces US ‘gold card’ visa scheme (Financial Times, James Politi) shows that Trump is keen to ship in the rich people by offering them a “gold card” visa that will give them “green card privileges plus” for just $5m a pop, subject to some vetting. This new scheme will replace the existing EB-5 one. Trump said that these gold card visa holders will be “spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people”. When asked whether Russian oligarchs would be eligible, Trump said “Yeah, possibly. I know some Russian oligarchs that are very nice people”.

Then in US stocks fall as consumer confidence sinks most in four years (Financial Times, George Steer) we see that Wall Street had an off day yesterday thanks to rising concerns that Trump’s tariffs would slow the economy, a sharper-than expected drop in consumer sentiment to a level that normally precedes a recession and increasing expectations of inflation rises. Investors appear to be loading up on “defensive stocks” (those which tend to outperform when the economy slows down) like Dr Pepper and Colgate-Palmolive in advance of expected turbulence.

Back home, ‘Everything has changed’: UK embarks on biggest arms drive since cold war (Financial Times, George Parker and Lucy Fisher) shows that Starmer has decided to decimate the aid budget and use the money to fund the biggest rearmament programme since the cold war. UK to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 (Financial Times, Lucy Fisher, George Parker and Anna Gross) looks at the decision to raise defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP and it comes ahead of Starmer’s meeting tomorrow with Trump. He also aired the longer term ambition to spend 3% of GDP on defence “in the next parliament”.

Elsewhere, Farmers worried if they will make it to 2026 amid ‘cashflow crisis’, says NFU (The Guardian, Joanna Partridge and Helena Horton) highlights ongoing concerns by farmers over planned inheritance tax changes and their current “cashflow crisis” that has occurred following years of rising costs, labour shortages, post-Brexit changes and now “unprecedented weather”. * SO WHAT? * The agriculture sector has had an extremely tough few years and the IHT thing is probably the final nail in the coffin for many. Food independence and security is becoming even more vital in our increasingly uncertain world so you do wonder whether the government will shift its position – particularly as it has now done so with the defence/aid spend rebalance.

Then in Spring statement 2025: when is it and could Rachel Reeves announce tax rises? (The Times, Jack Barnett) we take a look ahead at the spring statement due on March 26th when the OBR publishes its predictions for the UK economy. Since the Labour government came to office, the economy has underperformed and the economy’s much-vaunted £10bn of headroom has evaporated. The OBR publishes two economic forecasts per year while the chancellor has said she would only do one budget per year. * SO WHAT? * Thus far, the government has downplayed the importance of the March spring statement and fears of tax rises and spending cuts. However, given the slew of generally disappointing economic data it’s increasingly possible for Reeves to try and give herself more room for manoeuvre by increasing taxes, decreasing spending or changing her fiscal rules. Although the government remains steadfast in its commitment not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance contribution from employees it’s possible that Reeves could freeze income tax bands that would make more people liable to pay more tax when their wages go up and she’s also thinking about raiding savers by lowering the annual limit on how much money people can put into their cash ISAs from £20,000 to £4,000. We’ll just have to wait and see!

In oil and gas news, BP signs $25bn deal to redevelop Iraq’s oil and gasfields (The Times, James Hurley) shows that BP and Iraq’s government have come to an agreement for the oil major to redevelop four big oil and gas fields in Kirkuk. * SO WHAT? * This is a big deal for BP, which is expected to spend $25bn over the duration of the project, but it is also important for Iraq which needs BP expertise to access its natural resources. This just goes to underline the company’s increased focus on its oil and gas operations and ongoing move away from renewables.

Then in LNG demand to jump 60% by 2040, Shell forecasts (Financial Times, Shotaro Tani) we see that Shell is predicting a massive rise in LNG demand moving towards 2040 thanks to accelerating economic growth in Asia, the need to decarbonise heavy industry and transport as well as rising demand from the increasingly energy-thirsty tech sector. Fun facts: Shell is the world’s biggest LNG trader while China is the world’s biggest LNG importer. * SO WHAT? * Until we’re all powered by super-efficient energy generated via nuclear fission and renewables, fossil fuels of all types are going to be powering us for many years to come. I think that this is inevitable given the massive spike in power we’ll be seeing over the coming years as more people switch to EVs and more data centres are needed to power AI development.

Why is crypto down? Bitcoin value plunges below $90,000 (The Times, Louisa Clarence-Smith) takes a look at bitcoin’s recent weakness as it fell below the $90,000 mark yesterday to hit its lowest level since November 18th. * SO WHAT? * Global investors appear to be shunning riskier assets at the moment thanks to the prospect of a potential US economic slowdown while previous hopes of the establishment of a strategic bitcoin fund and relaxation of regulation for cryptocurrencies have not come to anything (yet). Last week’s hack of Bybit won’t have helped sentiment either. Smaller altcoins have had an even worse time of it – dogecoin fell by about 20% versus bitcoin’s 8% slide over the past week (although it’s worth saying that bitcoin is still up 64% from where it was a year ago!).

Dockworkers Approve Labor Deal (Wall Street Journal, Paul Berger) shows that the dockworkers have won a new labour deal that gives them a 62% par rise and a guarantee against fully automated machinery at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports for the next six years. Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) participated in the union’s first coastwide strike in almost 50 years last October, causing chaos during the busy peak shipping season. * SO WHAT? * Trump said in his election campaign that he supported the union and was against automation. Now that he’s in power and potentially facing stormy economic conditions ahead while Chinese continue to automate to cut costs, you do wonder how long this resolve is going to last…

BlackRock, a Diversity Pioneer, Distances Itself From DEI (Wall Street Journal, Jack Pitcher) highlights yet another company walking away from DEI commitments. This is notable given that BlackRock had previously been a big supporter. It deleted statements that it had included in past annual reports about a diverse and inclusive workforce. Last month, the world’s biggest asset

manager withdrew from a UN-sponsored climate initiative. * SO WHAT? * Unfortunately, I think this is just a company reacting to Washington’s current mood music. There will be more of this to come I am sure!

On the other hand, Apple investors defy Trump to back DEI (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) shows that a majority of Apple’s shareholders at its AGM yesterday voted against a proposal calling for the company to axe its DEI programme. Interestingly, the motion had been put forward by the US conservative group the National Centre for Public Policy Research (NCPPR) and Apple had itself urged shareholders to oppose it. * SO WHAT? * Apple remains the exception to tech rivals including Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft who have all walked back their DEI schemes to some extent, reacting to Trump’s threats to name and shame “woke companies” and “combat illegal private sector DEI preferences”. He has also threatened to cut funding for companies that run diversity programmes and cut them out of the US government. Good on Apple and its shareholders!

Tesla sales in Europe plummet by 45% amid Elon Musk backlash (The Times, Robert Lea) cites the latest pan-European data which shows that Tesla deliveries in January almost halved versus the same month last year. It’s possible that this is due to some technical reasons and an ageing model line-up but many are saying that it’s due to Musk’s increasing association with politics, Trump and the far-right. Tesla vehicles are being referred to by some as “Swasti-cars”, in a nod to his recent straight-arm gestures to the audience at the US presidential inauguration as well as his well-publicised rapport with the far-right in Germany.

Then in Lucid Group Launches Search for CEO as Rawlinson Steps Aside (Wall Street Journal, Sean McLain and Connor Hart) we see that the EV maker has seen the departure of its CEO, to be replaced on an interim basis with its COO, Marc Winterhoff. The company’s performance has been poor for some time and the CEO’s departure was probably inevitable given that the company’s losses continued to widen. It has had to rely heavily on its majority owner, Saudi Arabia’s PIF, for the finances to keep itself going.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, UK ministers consider changing AI plans to protect creative industries (The Guardian, Kiran Stacey and Eleni Courea) shows that government ministers are at least appearing to listen to concerns voiced by the creative industry as they debated plans to make it easier for AI companies to access copyright-protected work. Both sides are likely to want to find some kind of compromise before the government announces final plans later this year.

Britain’s household energy bills to rise from April (Financial Times, Rachel Millard) highlights the greater-than-expected rise in the energy price cap announced by Ofgem yesterday, which means that household bills will rise to an average of £1,849 a year from the current £1,738.

This will be the third consecutive rise in the cap and comes at a very difficult time for households who are facing pressures from all sides! This isn’t going to help ease inflation…

Then in Unilever boss ousted as company struggles to move on from ‘social purpose’ (Daily Telegraph, Chris Price) we see that Unilever’s CEO will leave next month less than two years into the job, to be replaced by his CFO. Why was Unilever’s chief executive ousted and what happens next? (The Times, Isabella Fish) highlights the risks of booting someone so soon in their tenure as head honcho but the fact is the Unilever has stubbornly underperformed its peers for some time. We’ll just have to see how the new guy does!

I have a feeling that I might have used this video before, but just in case I haven’t, just marvel at the skill of this pancake maker! He creates edible works of art 👏!

In US drives Ukraine war measure through UN with Russian backing (Financial Times, Felicia Schwartz) we see that the UN Security Council passed a US resolution appealing for a “swift end” to the war in Ukraine thanks to the backing of Moscow and Beijing, driving the wedge deeper into the traditional transatlantic alliance. Trump added that he was open to making an “economic” deal with Putin and that the two had conducted “very good talks” about ending the war in Ukraine. * SO WHAT? * This marks a major change for the UN on its stance on the war where it has supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, acknowledged Russia’s aggression and called for Russian forces to immediately withdraw. The final resolution made yesterday did not include this language – something that France, the UK, Denmark, Greece and Slovenia pushed for but the Americans just wanted to force the whole thing through. Although the Americans are effectively endorsing Putin and the notion that the invasion of countries will be rewarded (Greenland take note!), you could say that at least Trump has got things moving. Trump changed conversation on Ukraine ‘for the better’, says UK (Financial Times, George Parker) shows PM Starmer praising Trump for changing the “global conversation” (but then he probably has a lot of sucking up to do after his disastrous start with The Orange One, particularly as he’s got meetings at the White House this week) while EU and UK in talks about Europe-wide defence funding amid fear of US pullback (Financial Times, Paola Tamma, Henry Foy, George Parker and Sam Fleming) highlights ground-breaking talks set to happen this week that will bring EU leaders together to discuss defence funding arrangements across Europe. Chancellor Reeves will join other finance ministers at the G20 meeting in Cape Town and there’s already talk of a special fund, or even a “Rearmament Bank”. Apparently, such talks have been going on for the last few months (presumably they started when Trump won the election!).

Meanwhile, Germany’s election leaves its industrial champions dangling (Financial Times, Lex) moves on from Germany’s election over the weekend. Although its incoming chancellor said that he wants “independence” from the US, the reality is that this is going to be extremely hard, if not impossible because most of Germany’s big companies make most of their money from international trade. Now that some of the political uncertainty is out of the way, the next big thing is going to be what happens next re trade and tariffs. * SO WHAT? * On the plus side, the desire to increase defence spending and prompt business investment should be good for Germany’s Dax as its 40 constituents are more weighted to “old school” cyclical sectors like industrials versus the US or most of Europe. Trump’s initial reaction to the election result was that it was a “great day for Germany”, but just how great is really going to depend on tariffs and how the trade wars pan out.

Then in DR Congo stops cobalt exports in attempt to halt sliding prices (Financial Times, Leslie Hook and Tom Wilson) we see that the DRC announced that it is ceasing cobalt exports, an ingredient commonly used in EV batteries, in order to arrest the commodity’s slide in price. All of its cobalt exports will be suspended for the next four months. The DRC is the world’s biggest exporter of cobalt. * SO WHAT? * This is a dramatic move but it could play into the hands of Indonesia, which is the world’s second biggest producer of cobalt. The success of this move will depend on how strictly the ban is enforced.

Apple to invest $500bn in US as it scrambles to beat Trump’s China tariffs (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) highights the tech giant’s hiring push where it has promised to spend $500bn and take on 20,000 new staff in the US over the next four years in the latest attempt by corporate America to curry favour with Trump. Apple’s plans will cover the construction of an advanced server manufacturing facility in Texas, production for Apple TV and buying microchips made in Arizona by TSMC. Apple is famous for doing all the design in America but then outsourcing assembly to countries like China in particular. Apple Joins Slew of Companies Touting More U.S. Jobs. How Much Is New? (Wall Street Journal, Aaron Tilley, Theo Francis and Amrith Ramkumar) has an interesting take on this, however, as it says that this kind of behaviour fits in with a long tradition of businesses pretty much re-hashing existing hiring plans (perhaps with a bit extra) to incoming presidents to make it look like they’re doing something new when, in reality, they’re just re-marketing what they were already going to do anyway. Apple did it in the past when Trump came into office the first time around and then again at the beginning of Biden’s term. * SO WHAT? * You would have thought that everyone’s going to be doing this because they will be keen to get on Trump’s right side.

Then in Starbucks to lay off 1,100 corporate workers in CEO’s restructuring plan (The Guardian, Michael Sainato) we see that the coffee chain announced its biggest round of layoffs in the company’s history. It is also going to close several hundred open vacant job positions. The company employs around 16,000 staff around the world with 10,000 of those being in America.

Warehouse, roasting and store employees will not be affected. * SO WHAT? * This sort of dramatic action makes sense given that the CEO only started in September last year. He’s done a review, tried to change the culture and now has the axe out. Investors love this sort of classic new guy playbook, employees less so. Once these changes have time to percolate, investors will want to see evidence of these changes working otherwise questions will be asked. For now, though, the CEO seems to be doing all the right things.

Chinese investment surge into Vietnam raises risk of Donald Trump retaliation (Financial Times, A. Anantha Lakshmi) highlights the potentially precarious position that Vietnam may be placed in because it’s not going to escape Trump’s notice that Chinese companies are now accounting for about a third of new investments in the country. Vietnam has been a major beneficiary of the US-China trade wars because it has been used as a manufacturing base outside China to get around US sanctions. However, the trend has developed so much that it now has a trade surplus of $123.5bn with the US, the third highest surplus after China and Mexico. * SO WHAT? * Chinese companies have been investing increasing amounts in the country because they have been feeling the pressure of buyers in the US and Europe to move out of China so that they can get a different “certificate of origin”. Vietnam’s fate will depend on Trump’s whims and it’s not looking good because the US makes up almost 30% of Vietnam’s exports.

Huawei improves AI chip production in boost for China’s tech goals (Financial Times, Zijing Wu and Eleanor Olcott) highlights a major breakthrough in yield – the percentage of functional chips manufactured on its production line – which means that it will be able to produce more AI chips. Its previous yield had been about 20% a year ago, but this has now climbed to almost 40%. * SO WHAT? * This yield improvement means that Huawei’s Ascend chips have become profitable for the first time and the company continues to target a yield of 60%, the industry standard for this type of chip. Advances in this area will help to wean China off reliance on foreign chips and support its growing AI industry reach full independence. Huawei currently accounts for over 75% of the output of AI chips in China!

In other AI news, Creative industries protest against UK plan about AI and copyright (Financial Times, Daniel Thomas and Anna Gross)  highlights protests by musicians, artists, authors and journalists ahead of the closure today of a government consultation into plans for the future of copyright and AI. The government is pushing for companies, artists and authors to opt their work

out of being used to train models. * SO WHAT? * On the one side, tech companies need access to vast oceans of resources to train their models in order to improve their AI but on the other, those who create the material need to get paid. The artists say that an opt-out model is harder to enforce and puts the burden and costs on artists, most of whom won’t be able to afford it. The government argues that the material is already out there and if we restrict model access now we’ll have neither protected creative industries nor a domestic AI industry.

Then in Weather forecasting takes big step forward with Europe’s new AI system (Financial Times, Clive Cookson) we see that the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is launching a new model whose powers of prediction have been vastly improved by the use of AI. Although AI is already used in meteorological offices around the world, this model can outperform traditional forecasting methods (by about 20%!) for up to 15 days in advance! Sounds great, don’t you think??

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Energy targets ‘make 80% of commercial properties unlettable’ (The Times, Tom Howard) highlights the current state of commercial property as over 80% of commercial properties won’t be fit to let from 2030 without major investment to upgrade their energy performance certificate (EPC) to a rating of A or B by 2030. Research from the British Property Federation says that, right now, 83% of commercial properties in England’s major cities have an EPC rating of C or worse where A is the most efficient and G is the least. Is commercial property primed for mass consolidation? (The Times, Tom Howard) highlights low valuations of the likes of Great Portland Estates, Shaftsbury Capital, British Land and Land Securities and why this may lead to consolidation in the industry. * SO WHAT? * Commercial property is in a tricky spot at the moment because it’s been buffeted by WFH, the trend for shorter leases, rising insolvencies and tightening environmental rules. You would have thought that the time is ripe for consolidation here as bigger players could presumably better afford to upgrade their property portfolios and rents seem to be on a rising trend after a few years in the wilderness. Will the Americans clear up here with their strong dollar??

In retail news, B&M issues profit warning as boss leaves ahead of Reeves tax raid (Daily Telegraph, Chris Price) shows that the discount retailer has announced a profit warning and the exit of its CEO who is “retiring”. The company is likely to be exponentially hit by Reeves’s NIC tax raid and minimum wage hike.

JPMorgan Chase sets aside $50bn for direct lending in private credit push (Financial Times, Eric Platt and Joshua Franklin) is an interesting article that names the latest bank to siphon off

a lump of cash to finance a push into private credit, the area that has been so fruitful for private equity firms. In actual fact, JP Morgan launched its push into direct lending in 2021 and has thus far put $10bn into over 100 private credit transactions, so it does have some track record in this area! * SO WHAT? * Banks have been queueing up to follow their racier rivals into this increasingly lucrative area. FWIW, I think that this area could be highly lucrative for banks – especially if private credit gets regulated. If that happens, I would have thought that entities that aren’t banks may suffer whereas those that are will be highly accustomed to being regulated!

Then in Just Eat sold at bargain price as takeaway boom fades (Daily Telegraph, Matthew Field) we see that the Anglo-Dutch food delivery giant has just agreed to a takeover offer from investment group Prosus at a price that is less than a third of what it was worth at its pandemic peak. The takeover offer was confirmed at £3.4bn versus the company’s peak valuation of £14.2bn back in 2021. Interestingly, Prosus had previously tried to buy Just Eat in 2019 for over £5.5bn but was beaten to it by Dutch rival Takeaway.com. Prosus is majority owned by South African media conglomerate Naspers and was spun out of the group which was made famous by its early investment in Tencent in 2001. Prosus’s CEO is keen to take the “opportunity to create a European tech champion”. Just Eat deal delivers a fresh playbook for Prosus (Financial Times, Lex) observes that Prosus could bring expertise to the party via its holdings in other food delivery groups like Brazil’s iFood.

Who knew you could catch fish using a melon?? These guys did – wait for it 👀!!!

Zelenskyy offers to step down in exchange for peace and Ukraine’s Nato membership (Financial Times, Christopher Miller and Ben Hall) shows that Ukraine’s president has offered, for the first time, to step down if Ukraine was granted membership to NATO or if lasting peace for Ukraine was on the table. Russia launched its biggest drone strike yesterday, ahead of today’s third anniversary of the invasion. * SO WHAT? * As things stand, I would have thought that membership of NATO ain’t going to happen but Zelenskyy will try to push for a decent and lasting peace deal although it seems that he doesn’t really have a winning hand at this stage. Trump keeps banging on about a $500bn bill for US services rendered while Zelenskyy has seemingly upped his previous estimate of a $60bn bill to $100bn (presumably the truth is somewhere in between).

Meanwhile, Germany’s election winner pledges ‘independence from US’ (Financial Times, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, Laura Pitel and Olaf Storbeck) shows that Friedrich Merz, leader of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) is tapping into the zeitgeist and perhaps dipping into fantasy by promising to “achieve independence” from the US as he looks like getting the biggest share of the vote in yesterday’s election. The far-right AfD came second with its highest ever share. Merz said that Trump was “largely indifferent” to Europe’s fate and the region’s whole relationship needs a complete re-set. He added that he was unsure about the future of NATO. * SO WHAT? * At the moment, it’s unclear as to whether Merz can negotiate a majority that will be strong enough to push through much-needed reforms or whether he’ll be hamstrung at every turn like the last lot.

UK and India relaunch trade talks in bid to boost investment opportunities (Financial Times, Lucy Fisher and John Reed) shows that both sides are relaunching trade talks that fizzled out going into the end of last year. UK officials are targeting agreements in advanced manufacturing, clean energy and financial services as well as professional and business services. * SO WHAT? * PM Starmer is keen to do deals with India and the Indian side has also made positive noises but there are still a few sticking points including visas and social security payouts. India’s economy is about the same size as the UK’s currently but its prospects are huge and it is on track to become the world’s third biggest global economy by 2028, powered by its growing middle classes.

Trump paralyses the US wind power industry (Wall Street Journal, Jennifer Hiller) highlights one of the effects of Trump’s new administration – that the whole US wind power industry is now in limbo as players in the field like Ørsted, TotalEnergies and Shell have already cut back plans. This isn’t surprising considering that, in his election campaign, he targeted offshore wind projects which he pledged to “end on day one”. Since his election win, he confirmed his stance by saying “We aren’t going to do the wind thing”. Work is continuing on projects that have already been started but everything else is up in the air at the moment.

In the world of crypto, Hackers steal $1.5bn from crypto exchange in ‘biggest digital heist ever’ (The Guardian, Joanna Partridge) shows that Dubai-based crypto platform Bybit was hit by what is thought to be the biggest ever single hacker attack. * SO WHAT? * Bybit has over 60 million users globally and is the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. There was a surge in withdrawals and Ethereum fell by 4% on the news but things seem to have largely recovered as the company reassured customers that they would be covered even if their money was not successfully retrieved. Bybit is now offering a reward of 10% of the amount recovered, so if you know how to do this, you could get very rich!

Elsewhere, Crypto companies boost sports spending after getting Trump bump (Financial Times, Nikou Asgari and Samuel Agini) shows that crypto companies have boosted their investment in sports investments and sponsorships to feed into the momentum the Trump’s new administration is giving them. For example, Tether bought a 5% stake in Juventus and exchange Gato.io now has a branding deal with F1 team Red Bull Racing. * SO WHAT? * Things certainly seem to be looking up for the industry after the lows of the FTX collapse back in late 2022 and the number of deals being done by crypto firms is definitely on the rise. All of this is about trying to get a wider audience involved.

Donald Trump considers tariffs to counter digital services taxes on Big Tech (Financial Times, Myles McCormick and Demetri Sevastopulo) shows that the US president is looking at retaliatory taxes on countries that implement digital services taxes against American companies. * SO WHAT? * These taxes are likely to hit many EU countries, the UK and Turkey the hardest. Trump describes these digital services taxes as being “one-sided, anti-competitive policies and practices of foreign governments” while others may describe them as making US giants pay their way in markets in which they operate. He’s also looking at tightening rules on Chinese investment in the US but also restricting companies “from pouring investments into China, and stop China buying up America”.

Meanwhile, Pollution from Big Tech’s data centre boom costs US public health $5.4bn (Financial Times, Cristina Criddle and Stephanie Stacey) cites research from UC Riverside and Caltech which shows that the increasing use of data centres by Big Tech is resulting in air pollution that has increased public health costs by over $5.4bn in the last five years.

Conditions worsened by the sharp rise in power generation includes cancers and asthma, among others. Data centres cause pollution via high electricity usage, particularly from sources that use fossil fuels. * SO WHAT? * This is indeed sobering but I have to say that it must be fiendishly difficult to prove a direct link between people suffering from a condition and how much that is made worse by pollution that comes directly from specific sources. Unfortunately, until non-fossil fuel power generation sources really kick in, you would have thought that this is only going to get worse given the massive AI spending plans we are seeing on an almost daily basis. Commercially viable nuclear fusion technology can’t come quickly enough!

Then in Nvidia’s AI bubble faces test as sales surge forecast (The Times, Emma Powell) we see that the market has high hopes about Nvidia being able to outperform expectations. This will be the first results announcement since the DeepSeek shock, due out this Wednesday, so everyone is going to be even more focused than usual!

BMW pauses £600m upgrade to Oxford Mini plant as electric car demand falls (The Guardian, Aneesa Ahmed) highlights an unfortunate consequence of the ongoing lack of appetite for EVs. BMW is now reviewing plans to produce the electric Mini there “given the multiple uncertainties facing the automotive industry”. In a perhaps more worrying move, the company has informed the government that it’s going to decline the grant it previously agreed to build the upgraded facility. The plant will continue to make internal combustion engine Minis in the meantime.

Then in Aston Martin stalls its plans for electric cars (The Times, Robert Lea) we see that the ailing luxury car maker has become the latest maker to walk back its EV plans. It had previously looked to introduce an electric car to its line-up in 2027 but that looks like it’ll be pushed back to 2030. The company is due to unveil its annual results this Wednesday and its fifth CEO in five years is expected to announce a new strategy then as well.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Shein profits slump in fresh challenge to long-planned London IPO (Financial Times, Eleanor Olcott, Zijing Wu, Cheng Leng and Laura Onita) shows that Shein’s net profit tanked by almost 40% last year thanks to a tricky final quarter and increased competition from Temu. * SO WHAT? * Given the competitive pressures and uncertain trading environment with regard to tariffs and tightening regulations, it’s possible that Shein’s IPO could be booted into the second half. Mind you, if they were THAT pessimistic maybe the company would be better off floating sooner at a lower valuation because conditions could get worse. Some money is better than nothing and Shein could perhaps hedge its bets by restricting the free float or skewing it more to retail investors who are arguably less interested in the valuation.

Then in Lazy Gen Z lead revival of the travel agents (Daily Telegraph, Christopher Jasper) we see that Gen Zs are leading a revival in the humble high street travel agent. The CEO of TUI, the world’s biggest travel operator, has observed that there’s a growing trend among Gen Zs to seek out help on their holidays because they don’t want the hassle of trawling through all the online info and potentially end up with something they didn’t want. He added that demand for UK holiday bookings has recovered to reasonable levels after the company identified weakness earlier this month, resulting in a share price fall. Will we see more travel agents return to our high streets I wonder??

Some people just have too much time on their hands – but they make some pretty amazing content 😆! Take these people for example!

US objects to phrase ‘Russian aggression’ in G7 statement on Ukraine (Financial Times, Christopher Miller, Henry Foy and Myles McCormick) shows the latest move by the Americans who now object to Russia being called the aggressor in the Ukraine war. This comes shortly after Trump blamed Ukraine for the war and branded Zelenskyy as a “dictator” while the latter’s participation at a virtual G7 summit on Monday hangs in the balance. Trump continues to trash Zelenskyy and suck up to Putin. This bizarre drama continues…

Javier Milei wins senate votes despite memecoin scandal (Financial Times, Ciara Nugent) shows that Argentina’s president managed to weather his recent memecoin moment as the senate approved electoral reform convincingly where this year’s primary elections are to be cancelled. He also narrowly survived a vote yesterday that would have meant a probe into his role in the memecoin debacle. He needs as many wins as possible at the moment to push through his reforms…

European stocks outpace Wall Street since Donald Trump took office (Financial Times, Arjun Neil Alim and Ian Smith) points out the relative outperformance versus Wall Street for the year so far, notable because it’s the best start to the year since the 1980s and the strongest performance versus the US in almost ten years! Financials, defence and luxury stocks have put in

decent performances and the euro has gained 2.2% versus the dollar over the course of the last month. There are doubts, however, as to how sustainable this performance is going to be given the aggressive tariff chat that’s going on at the moment. Talking of which, EU claims ‘positive momentum’ in trade talks with US (Financial Times, Myles McCormick and Andy Bounds) puts a positive spin on current negotiations as the bloc seeks to “avoid unnecessary pain”, particularly on cars.

Back in the UK, Car finance scandal risks blowing £5.5bn black hole in public purse (Daily Telegraph, Szu Ping Chan and Michael Bow) shows that Reeves’s failed attempt at intervening in the car financing scandal could mean that the Treasury gets £5.5bn less in corporation tax. The Supreme Court is currently looking at whether to uphold a Court of Appeal decision, which could clear the way for a flood of compensation claims. Compensation is treated as a deductible expense, which therefore means the finance companies affected will pay less corporation tax. Lloyds puts aside a further £700m for compensation over car finance scandal (The Guardian, Kalyeena Makortoff) shows that Lloyds Bank, as one of the lenders most exposed to the scandal, increased the amount it’s holding back for payouts bringing the total amount to almost £1.2bn. This put a 20% dent in its annual profits and uncertainty about the total eventual compensation bill continues to hang over it.

In business trends news, Europe needs to ‘up its game’ on defence, says Airbus chief (Financial Times, Sylvia Pfeifer and William Sandlund) shows that the CEO of Airbus wants Europe to spend and invest more in defence in order to compete globally, given how quickly the landscape is changing currently. There is an upsurge across Europe voicing this sentiment and European defence industry executives are calling for consolidation in order to compete on the global stage. Airbus’s chief confirmed that he was in preliminary talks with Thales and Leonardo about bringing together their satellite businesses in order to “gain scale and speed”. * SO WHAT? * FWIW, I think that this makes eminent sense because the world is changing and we need to adapt. If the Americans are pulling back support then Europe needs to step up and have its own capabilities as a matter of urgency.

In consumer news, UK consumers turn to saving as poor economic outlook saps confidence (Financial Times, Valentina Romei) cites the latest consumer confidence index from GfK which showed a slight improvement although UK households are now prioritising saving over spending due to pessimism over the economic outlook. The gap between strong pay growth and sluggish spending looks like it’ll persist given the gloomy mood at the moment! If that’s the case, it’ll be bad news for economic growth.

In employment news, Jobs market is in its longest downturn since 2000, says Hays (The Times, Tom Howard) cites the head honcho of Hays who says that the global jobs market is seeing its longest losing streak since the millennium. Demand for contract workers remained unremarkable at the start of this year and permanent hiring has stalled as well. Hays said that the market remained tricky in France, the UK, Ireland and Germany. * SO WHAT? * I think that any bounceback is likely to be delayed versus an uptick in the economy because companies tend to recruit “in-house” when times are difficult because they don’t want to pay out the fat fees recruiters charge. They tend to start using agencies like Hays, PageGroup, Robert Walters etc. when they start getting overrun again – and that takes time and a sustainable economic recovery.

Meanwhile, Citi becomes latest US company to abandon diversity targets (Financial Times, Joshua Franklin) shows that Citigroup sent a memo to staff yesterday saying that it is rolling back its diversity policies and will be changing the name of its DEI and Talent Management team to Talent Management and Engagement. * SO WHAT? * It seems that the DEI movement prompted by the murder of George Floyd is continuing to lose momentum. I expect this to continue and return to the “nice to have” status rather than “must have” status.

In AI-related news, Alibaba shares jump 12% after pledge to invest ‘aggressively’ in AI (Financial Times, Eleanor Olcott) shows that the company’s Hong-Kong listed shares leapt up in trading today after it said that it would invest more in AI over the next three years than it has done over the last ten! No details were provided but investors clearly liked what they heard and decided to pile in! Meta slashes staff stock awards as group embarks on AI spending drive (Financial Times, Hannah Murphy) highlights the company’s pullback on annual stock option awards as it ploughs significant amounts of money into AI in what Zuck described as a “really big year”. * SO WHAT? * Alibaba’s share price has shot up by over 50% since the start of the year, benefiting from the DeepSeek-led AI rally, its tie-up with Apple and the return to favour of its founder, Jack Ma. Meta’s share price has shot up by almost 20% during this time, outpacing many of its rivals! It remains to be seen as to whether both companies’ respective investments pay off but investors are certainly giving them the benefit of the doubt at the moment!

In Apple expands India manufacturing (Financial Times, Veena Venugopal) we see that Apple is playing an increasingly important role in mobile phone exports from India as both Foxconn and India’s Tata Electronics have been making a growing range of Apple product in India. Apple’s most expensive phone, the iPhone 16 Pro is now made in Tamil Nadu by Foxconn! Phone manufacturing has advanced so much over the last few years that phones have now overtaken

diamonds as India’s biggest export. * SO WHAT? * This shift to India is very important for Apple as it tries to ease its reliance on China as a manufacturing hub. This has been made necessary by the whole US-China trade war and Apple’s loss of momentum in the China market. Manufacturing in India has also helped selling within the Indian market itself as it is able to offer the handset for a lower price. There is still scope for improvement, though, as Apple needs to make its supply chain as robust as the one it has in China.

Meanwhile, James Bond producers give Amazon full creative control of 007 (The Guardian, Rob Davies and Andrew Pulver) shows that Amazon now has “creative control” over the Bond franchise having reached an agreement with Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson. The deal means that Amazon will now be able to move forward without their approval. Jeff Bezos tweeted “Who’d you pick as the next Bond?” soon after the deal was done while everyone got excited about the next instalment and what Amazon will do with it! Four years have passed since No Time To Die was released in 2021 and there’s nothing currently in the pipeline. * SO WHAT? * Now that Amazon has control, this thing could be an absolute goldmine if done well. If it takes Bond down a similar road to Lord of the Rings and Star Wars with all their spin-offs it could be highly remunerative and give existing and new fans their Bond fix on a more regular basis.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, CATL, Volkswagen to Collaborate on EV Batteries Amid Intensifying Competition (Wall Street Journal, Jiahui Huang) highlights an important new collaboration between Chinese battery giant CATL and ailing car manufacturer VW on EV batteries, new material applications and the development of auto parts. * SO WHAT? * This smacks of desperation from VW but I think it is a necessary action given that it is losing momentum.

On a more positive note, Electric-vehicle maker Rivian posts first gross profit as costs ease (Financial Times, Claire Bushey) heralds the first time that Rivian’s revenues exceeded the cost of manufacturing the vehicles although the company did say that truck and van deliveries this year would fall as demand slows thanks to Trump’s anti-EV stance. It massively exceeded the market’s expectations for gross profit in Q4 and it continued to cut costs whilst improving revenue per vehicle delivered. * SO WHAT? * This is great news for Rivian and a real milestone, but you do wonder if it’s going to prove too little too late in an anti-EV environment. The company can’t even rely on exporting more, particularly if Europe decides to impose retaliatory charges.

Then in Mercedes to launch more combustion engine cars than electric ones (The Times, Ed Halford) we see that the German car maker has continued to see sliding demand for EVs (sales of

its battery EVs fell by almost a quarter last year, prompting it to declare that it will include more combustion engine models than EVs in its new product range in order to help boost margins. It will release 19 new petrol and diesel vehicles and 17 EVs by the end of 2027. Most of the new models will be at the higher end of the price range as it continues with its focus on selling lower volumes at higher margins.

In mining news, Anglo American writes down value of diamond firm De Beers by $2.9bn (The Guardian, Jillian Ambrose) shows that De Beers continues to suffer from the growth in popularity of lab-grown diamonds to the extent that De Beers’s parent company, Anglo American, has decided to write down its value by almost $3bn. * SO WHAT? * This will be the second write-down of the business in two years and will make its original plans for selling it off sometime in the first half of this year much more difficult.

Then in Walmart shares tumble on news that sales will miss target (The Times, Louisa Clarence-Smith) we see that the world’s biggest retailer warned that its expected a slowdown in sales growth this year due to global economic uncertainty although it did manage to report a strong holiday quarter. Everyone’s on tenterhooks about the impact of Trump’s tariffs!

Who knew that omelette making could be so compelling?? That end bit was quite surprising, I thought!

Donald Trump calls Volodymyr Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’ as US rift with Ukraine deepens (Financial Times, Christopher Miller, Max Seddon and Steff Chavez) shows that Ukraine negotiations took a bizarre turn as Trump called President Zelenskyy a “dictator” after the latter accused the former of living in a “disinformation bubble” and questioned Trump’s $500bn figure for how much America had poured into the war (Zelenskyy said that it was more like $60bn so far). Trump also blamed Zelenskyy for Russia’s invasion in 2022. Trump’s rush to strike a deal on Ukraine hands Putin the advantage (Financial Times, Max Seddon and Felicia Schwartz) shows just how far the pendulum has swung in favour of Putin, whose ambition has always been to unpick Europe’s security architecture and make Ukraine a failed state. Trump is essentially facilitating all of this and his desire to do a quick deal will give Putin even more of what he wants. Nato faces ‘paradigm shift’ after Vance’s warning to Europe (Daily Telegraph, Matt Oliver) highlights vice president JD Vance’s warning to European leaders that they must “step up in a big way” on rearmament which Record orders at BAE Systems as European defence spending rises (The Guardian, Jasper Jolly) shows has so far translated into a boom in business and a fat order book. BAE currently has a record £77.8bn order backlog. In the meantime, Starmer expresses support for Zelenskyy after Trump criticism (Financial Times, Lucy Fisher and George Parker) shows that the PM has backed Zelenskyy as a “democratically elected leader” and that it was perfectly understandable to suspend elections in wartime. France and UK plan air power-backed ‘reassurance force’ in postwar Ukraine (Financial Times, John Paul Rathbone, Ben Hall and Henry Foy) shows that the UK and France are in the throes of putting together a “reassurance force” that would ensure Russia stuck to any ceasefire. Details have not yet been finalised, though.

In non-war news, Federal Reserve officials seek ‘further progress’ on inflation before cutting rates (Financial Times, James Politi) shows that the Fed is putting the brakes on any additional interest rate cuts for now, according to the minutes of the latest interest rate meeting. Members of the committee expressed concerns about “upside risk” for inflation and want time to consider the impact of Trump’s economic policies. * SO WHAT? * Given that we saw a rise in inflation last week, at a time when Trump’s policies haven’t been fully formed, I think that the Fed is right to be cautious. Pretty much everyone is expecting inflation to rise on Trump’s incoming tariffs at the very least!

UK inflation jumps to 3%, reducing chance of early interest rate cut (The Guardian, Phillip Inman) cites the latest numbers from the ONS which show that UK inflation rose by more than expected at the beginning of this year, powered by rising prices for meat, bread and cereals, among other things. Inflation fears send consumer confidence to 11-month low (The Times, Mehreen Khan) cites the latest BRC survey on consumer confidence and, funnily enough, they are getting increasingly worried about inflation.  This is the fifth consecutive month where consumers expressed worsening sentiment about the state of the economy. * SO WHAT? * This is going to pile even more pressure on the chancellor and make life tricky for the Bank of England to justify interest rate cuts.

Microsoft creates new state of matter in quest for world’s most powerful computer (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) highlights a major breakthrough in quantum computing as it unveiled a new chip yesterday which generates new particles that exist in a “topological” state – something that has only been a theoretical concept until now. * SO WHAT? * This chip will be used in quantum computers that will see a step change difference in performance, which could themselves lead to massive advances in chemistry and physics. Microsoft’s unconventional approach to quantum computing has now been vindicated but it remains to be seen as to how this tech can be scaled up.

Google builds AI ‘co-scientist’ tool to speed up research (Financial Times, Melissa Heikkila) shows that the tech giant has built an AI lab assistant that will help accelerate biomedical research. It will do this by identifying knowledge gaps and suggesting new ideas. Early test results of its efficacy have been promising. * SO WHAT? * This is a great example of AI being

used for the benefit of mankind! The moment an AI-designed drug comes to market surely can’t be all that far away. When that happens, it’ll be interesting to see how drugs are priced in the future as development costs and timeframes will be way less and way shorter than they are now. 

Then in Lenovo Doubles Profit on Strong Sales (Wall Street Journal, Sherry Qin) we see that the world’s biggest PC maker posted quarterly earnings ahead of market estimates. This came thanks not only to the commercial PC replacement cycle but also the release of several AI-powered PC models in China last May. * SO WHAT? * I guess now’s the time for companies to splash out on new PCs (the replacement cycle tends to be every 4-5 years) and if they are AI-enabled, then it gives more impetus for firms to pull the trigger on spending. The last time there was a big rush for PCs was when we went into lockdown and people bought laptops etc. to work from home.

Falling coal prices push Glencore profits to lowest in four years (The Times, Emma Powell) shows that weakening coal prices pushed profits down to their lowest level in four years, which meant that they fell short of market expectations. It said that it would return an additional $2.2bn to shareholders, which sounds good but was less than some analysts had been expecting. At the moment, the company is also reviewing whether to move its primary listing from London to New York following pressure from Tribeca Investment Partners, an Aussie hedge fund, to list outside London to get a higher rating.

Then in Rio Tinto 2024 Profit Rises, but Weaker China Iron-Ore Demand Hurts Underlying Earnings (Wall Street Journal, Rhiannon Hoyle) we see that the world’s second biggest miner reported a healthy 15% increase in annual net profits as its bottom line was boosted by some asset sales and lower impairment charges in some of its Australian refineries. That being said, stripping out one-time charges, underlying earnings fell short of market expectations and reduced its dividend. * SO WHAT? * Iron ore makes up most of Rio Tinto’s profits but weaker steel demand from China has hit prices, which has in turn hit Rio’s profits. It’s currently trying to decrease its reliance on iron ore by investing in other commodities including lithium and copper.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, BYD’s strategy shift is bad news for global automakers (Financial Times, June Yoon) highlights BYD’s strategy of making advanced features like self-driving, standard in its cars. Carmakers have, for many years, used driver assistance software as a way of clawing back declining hardware margins. For instance, Tesla charges $8,000 for its driver assistance software. Advanced driver assistance systems have increased in popularity as research shows that cars that have features such as automatic emergency braking, traffic assist and forward collision warnings are proving to be a hit with drivers. * SO WHAT? * BYD’s decision to make these features standard is going to dent other makers’ ambitions to make money out of this because once such luxury features are expected (power windows, anti-lock brakes, rear-view cameras etc.), they can’t charge for them any more. No wonder BYD is gaining momentum!

Tesla rival once valued at $30bn collapses amid electric car downturn (Daily Telegraph, Matthew Field) highlights the final nail in the coffin of Nikola, the maker of hydrogen fuel and

battery-powered trucks which was once valued at over $30bn, as it filed for bankruptcy protection in the US leaving over $1bn in liabilities. * SO WHAT? * The current CEO blamed the lack of appetite for EVs but let’s face it, the writing was on the wall when Hindenburg Research published its hatchet-job report, which revealed the whole thing to be a sham back in 2020. Its founder, Trevor Milton, left the business in 2021 and was sentenced to four years in prison in December 2023.

Then in HSBC to cut 8% from workforce costs in $1.5bn savings drive (The Times, Ben Martin) we see that Europe’s biggest bank announced better-than-expected profits for 2024 but also set out plans to cut costs by $1.5bn by axing 8% of its workforce. It also pushed back net-zero targets by 20 years. * SO WHAT? * I guess this is all part of the bank’s increasing focus on its Asia business and the overall mood where corporates are feeling confident enough to ditch their climate ambitions as the geopolitical mood music has changed.

The kids in this obstacle race are just incredible! They are superhuman!!!