Thursday 10/09/26

Trump promises $5,000 ‘dividend’ for US voters if Republicans win midterms (Financial Times, James Politi, Stephanie Findlay, Alex Rogers and Joe Miller) shows that Trump’s getting the big guns out now and promised to pay a $5,000 dividend to every adult citizen in the US if his party manages to keep control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. He announced this promise yesterday on the opening night of the Republican Party’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas. * SO WHAT? * I said ages ago that I thought he would do this! OK so you could say “why is this different to promising, say, to lower income taxes by 2 percentage points” (or something like that) – and in theory, this argument would have some merit. However, doling out a cheque to so many people gives you no control over what happens to that cheque and what it’s used for. I would say that there’s a high risk that because of this, the money will be wasted and won’t have as much of an effect as, say, using it to fund schools (or whatever it may be) because it will be spread too thinly across random things. I remember laughing when I saw a video of an American guy being interviewed in the wake of the distribution of cheques paid out by the US government in the early days of Covid. He was asked what he’d spend the money on – and he said that he would be spending it on his dream gun 😱! Not food, not toilet rolls – a gun! If you see a big move like this, as a voter, you want to see it move the needle but, like I say, there is a major risk of it doing nothing apart from pushing up inflation at a time where America is already deep in debt. Talking of which, US borrowing costs hit three-year high as $6bn bond intervention backfires (Daily Telegraph, Joe Sledge and Eir Nolsøe) shows that the situation isn’t getting any better either. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent pledged to buy back $6bn in government debt, but it didn’t work. Even if Trump’s Republicans maintain their majorities, it is debatable as to whether the $5,000 giveaway would be approved anyway. Still, I’m sure it upped the feelgood factor at the rally!

China warns bankers not to flood IPO market with ‘low-quality’ companies (Financial Times, Arjun Neil Alim) is an interesting article that highlights the Chinese regulator’s desire to curb too much enthusiasm in the IPO market. Stunning recent market debuts for chipmaker CXMT and humanoid robotics start-up Unitree pumped up the retail investors with their 400%-plus first-day jumps but the regulators want to ensure that this doesn’t lead to a flood of poor quality companies rushing to float to take advantage of sentiment. Officials from the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently met with some of the country’s most senior investment bankers to press home the message that they wanted to continue with the current conservative pricing approach for IPOs whilst also making sure that duff companies don’t make it to market. * SO WHAT? * So far this year, China’s IPO market has had over 100 listings and raised over $28bn – which is almost 50% more than the entirety of 2025! New listings posted an average 173% gain on flotation this year. The idea of all this is to encourage people to put money in the stock market again to dilute the importance of other investment classes such as property, which has taken a years-long dive. This is particularly interesting when you consider that bankers in the west aim for a first day “pop” of about 10%. In addition to this, regulators are also pushing state-backed investors to put money into important technologies before they become profitable.

In EU unveils ‘buy European’ public procurement rules to counter China (The Guardian, Jennifer Rankin) we see that the European Commission published proposals yesterday to encourage national authorities and public bodies, such as schools and hospitals, to buy goods and services made in Europe. This is the EU’s latest attempt to stem the tide of Chinese imports and keep Europe’s once-thriving industries from dying as a result. This initiative differs from previous plans because it does not have binding “made in Europe” quotas. The new rules will prioritise quality, environmental sustainability and local supply chains over price. At the moment, it sounds like Britain will be in the “club”, which will be a relief for businesses…

Then in France’s Marine Le Pen stays silent on far-right victory in German election (Financial Times, Leila Abboud) we see that the leader of Rassemblement National has remained noticeably quiet about the electoral victory of her German equivalent and has even gone as far as stressing that her party was not the AfD. Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a senior RN lawmaker, said that “It shocks me because they voted for people who downplay Germany’s Nazi past, who argue that you could be in the SS without being a bad person. It’s outrageous”. However, he went on to observe that Germans didn’t vote for AfD because they were all Nazis – he voted for them because “they can no longer afford to pay their electricity bills”. Le Pen continues to lead in the opinion polls ahead of next April’s presidential election and has spend over a decade trying to detoxify the French far right in order to give them a real shot at governing.

Back home, Air traffic control boss given a week to report after UK flight chaos causes 2,000 cancellations (The Guardian, Gwyn Topham) shows that the government is currently backing the head of the National Air Traffic Services, Martin Rolfe, amid the whole airport/air traffic control debacle whilst also commissioning an independent review by the CAA. Passengers unlikely to get compensation after flight chaos (Daily Telegraph) shows that passengers affected by the shutdown were unlikely to be entitled to any compensation because the system failure was not within airlines’ control and The cost of UK air disruptions spreads far beyond the hit to airlines’ profit (Financial Times, Lex) highlights the broader impact of the latest failure – that in addition to the hit to airlines, the UK as a whole suffers reputational damage as a place that doesn’t work and probably isn’t the base for talent, business and capital it once was. * SO WHAT? * Surely Rolfe is for the chop after presiding over three major systems failures over four years and getting paid £1.5m a year for the pleasure of doing so. I would have thought the independent review will find shortcomings and then he’ll “step away to pursue outside interests”/”spend more time with his family” etc. while they find his replacement. Maybe they should get someone from IT to take over 😁. I am only half-joking…

Meanwhile, Oil hits $100 for first time since July (Financial Times, Verity Ratcliffe, Andrew England and Najmeh Bozorgmehr) shows that oil prices breached the $100 mark for the first time since July after flirting with the level in recent trading. It’s all about the never-ending Iran war as well as inventories running down.

It seems that there’s a pattern forming in the world of AI at the moment! Top US official named to OpenAI non-profit board warns advanced AI could be ‘deadly’ (Financial Times, Cristina Criddle) highlights the appointment of Paul Christiano, a senior US government official at the Center for AI Standards and Innovation, to OpenAI’s non-profit foundation that controls its for-profit business. This is interesting, considering that this is the guy who warned that advanced versions of AI could kill “most people” if sufficient guardrails weren’t put in place. Christiano is regarded by many in the community as a pioneer in safety research. Meanwhile, Anthropic researchers say AI could cause human extinction by 2030 (The Guardian, Richard Luscombe) cites a researcher who resigned from Anthropic, having previously worked at OpenAI, saying that “Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives”. He went on to say that “The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade…no other human activity poses this level of danger”. As if to prove the point, Anthropic withheld latest AI model from UK testing agency (Financial Times, Lucy Fisher and Madhumita Murgia) highlights Anthropic’s decision not to submit its latest model to our own AI Security Institute for testing. The company seems to be toeing the Trump administration’s line on AI protectionism.

Then in UK datacentres will create just 25% of jobs predicted by tech sector, analysis finds (The Guardian, Heather Stewart) we see that a report from environmental think tank Verdant

concludes that all the data centres that are currently planned in the UK will only directly employ 10,400 workers rather than the 40,000 that were suggested in forecasts by industry lobby group TechUK. That being said, Developer turns back on housing to chase data centre rush (Daily Telegraph, Pui-Guan Man) shows that land development group Harworth said it would stop work on residential sites completely and switch to building data centres and warehouses because they’re more profitable. The FTSE250 business specialises in regenerating brownfield land for new property developments. * SO WHAT? * This sounds like another nail in the coffin for Labour’s plans to build 1.5m homes to address Britain’s housing crisis. It also highlights the ongoing problems that housebuilders are having right now…

Apple launches its first foldable iPhone (The Times, Mark Sellman) takes a look at the new products that Apple unveiled yesterday. The new CEO announced the launch of the company’s first foldable iPhone, the Duo, which will be priced between £1,999 and £3,999, depending on which memory option you go for. It’s the most expensive iPhone ever and there were price rises for other phones in its range, but they weren’t as bad as everyone had been expecting. Apple also unveiled some new AirPods and two new Apple Watches. * SO WHAT? * This all sounds good and although a lot of commentary seemed to imply that the Duo would be popular I actually wonder if this will have a halo effect and prompt better sales of the new iPhone 18 offerings.

Supercar maker McLaren to create 1,000 UK jobs in £450m tech investment (The Guardian, Mark Sweney) heralds some good news for the car industry as the manufacturer has announced that it will be creating new jobs as part of a £450m investment in its tech centre in Woking. The company, which last year merged with premium EV start-up Forseven Holdings, currently employees employs 2,500 staff. McLaren is thought to be planning a product overhaul.

Then in UK universities pledge work experience to more than 1mn students (Financial Times, Chris Smyth and Andrew Jack) we see that British universities have promised to give all

undergraduates work experience within a decade. This is all part of trying to address employer concerns that grads aren’t ready for the world of work. Universities UK said that this offer to students will cover half of undergraduates by 2030 and all of those at British universities by 2035. * SO WHAT? * This sounds great and all, but I guess success will ultimately depend on the quality of the work experience, what that experience is and how relevant it could be to a permanent job in the “real” world.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, New homebuyer interest rises in back-to-school bounce (The Times, Jack Barnett) cites the latest RICS survey as showing that housing market demand had a bit of a rebound over the summer in that it didn’t fall as much as expected, making it the fifth consecutive month of improvement. Interestingly, figures released by Rightmove showed that there was an uptick in demand in September. However, as I’ve said previously, I think activity will flatline until Burnham’s budget.

SThree share price rises on US tech firm’s takeover approach (The Times, Chris Dorrell) shows that the recruitment company has received an unsolicited takeover offer from US rival Circle8. The latter will now have until October 7th to put up or shut up regarding a full and proper offer

under UK takeover rules. * SO WHAT? * Circle8 is also a tech-focused recruitment company so if a deal went ahead I would expect headcount reductions amid hopes of “synergies”. This is the latest approach from an American company to buy a British one.

Then in Windscreen giant Belron explores mega-IPO (Financial Times, Aaron Kirchfield and Ivan Levingston) we see that the company that owns the world’s biggest windscreen replacement and repair business with brands like Autoglass in the UK, Carglass in Europe and Safelite in the US could embark on a flotation, potentially reviving Europe’s IPO market in the process. Belron is owned by Belgian conglomerate D’Iteren Group. This is certainly one to watch!

A couple of years back, we heard two German guys rapping about a woman called Barbara and her rhubarb bar. It was so successful that they followed it up with an update of what had happened to her and now they are rapping about Anna’s pineapples. I don’t speak German at all but there’s something insanely catchy about their tongue-twisters 😁! When you took out a subscription to Watson’s Daily I bet you never thought that I would also be bringing you some niche German rap 😁. Then again, I did once bring you a Japanese man yodelling in English about chickens, so perhaps this is to be expected.