Watson’s Weekly 21-01-2023

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE COLOURED HIGHLIGHT REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

IN BIG PICTURE NEWS...

Economists get cautiously positive, ChatGPT causes a kerfuffle and environmentalists take Danone to task…

IN OIL NEWS…

IN CRYPTO NEWS…

INTERESTING BUSINESS, EMPLOYMENT AND CONSUMER TRENDS CONTINUE TO EMERGE...

IN BUSINESS TRENDS…

  • Macau could be in a lot of trouble as a major gambling tycoon faces an 18-year jail sentence. This could lead to the stream of high-rollers dwindling to the territory. Given that they only account for 1% of the gamblers there – but a whopping 75% of all gambling revenue – this could be highly problematic. Gambling has generated up to 90% of tax revenue in the past, so this could be a very big deal!
  • Three environmental groups are taking Danone to court, accusing the French owner of brands such as Evian and Activia of not doing enough to cut plastic pollution. If the environmentalists win, this could be massive as rivals including PepsiCo, Mondelez and Diageo – not to mention consumer goods groups like Unilever, P&G and Reckitt Benckiser may have to pay into a clear-up fund further down the line.
  • UK house prices fell for the first month since October 2021 as rising borrowing costs dented the residential market. Vistry was the latest housebuilder to act in the face of a potentially slowing market by cutting up to 100 jobs. On the other hand, Crest Nicholson reckons that the market will pick up in the spring.

IN EMPLOYMENT NEWS…

IN CONSUMER TRENDS…

THERE WERE SOME INTERESTING TRENDS IN RETAIL...

IN RETAIL NEWS…

In APPAREL RETAILERS, Chinese giant Shein is in talks for its latest fund raising at a level that gives it an implied valuation that’s a lot lower than it was at its previous fund raising round. At it’s peak, the company was the world’s third biggest private company after ByteDance and SpaceX. It still wants to launch an IPO in the US, which is its biggest market. FatFace had a strong Christmas, enjoying its best ever year for menswear and Reiss also had a great festive period. On the other hand, Dr Martens had a profit warning and Boohoo reported a poor performance as customers returned to the high street.

In GENERAL RETAILERS, Fortnum & Mason returned to profit and luxury retailers Burberry, Cartier and Aspinal generally did well although Burberry and Cartier saw some weakness in China as lockdowns took their toll. M&S signalled its confidence by announcing a store opening programme, WH Smith did well thanks to strong performances from their airport and railway station outlets and furniture store Dunelm had a great Christmas thanks to brisk sales of electric blankets and heated indoor airers! Hotel Chocolat also did well but wants to play it safe with Easter, aiming to run out of eggs rather than over-produce and then have to discount. On the downside, Matalan’s lenders took over ownership of the group while stationary retailer Paperchase was on the brink of collapse. Ocado posted its first ever annual fall in grocery sales as consumers returned to supermarkets and went bargain-hunting in Lidl and Aldi while THG cut its profit forecast for the fourth time in 12 months thanks to intensifying competition.

THERE WERE SOME MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN TECH & SOCIAL MEDIA...

IN TECH NEWS…

IN SOCIAL MEDIA NEWS…

REAL ESTATE WAS A MIXED BAG...

OVERALL…

IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY NEWS…

IT WAS AN EVENTFUL WEEK IN THE FINANCIALS SECTOR...

IN OTHER NEWS...

AND IN UPDATES FOR WATSON'S YEARLY...

  • Watson’s Yearly 2022/23: coming shortly…

BANTER

I’ve got two favourite “alternative” stories this week! There was this one: Pet duck that drinks tea, chases binmen and walks to shops wins fans across world (The Mirror, Stephen White) and the one about how to start your day in the most epic way: Hotel guests enjoy breakfast in bed outside in the snow at lavish ski resort (The Mirror, Milo Boyd). Nice 👍

 

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