This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week.
THE COLOURED HIGHLIGHT REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.
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IN BIG PICTURE NEWS...
We look at the latest on wars, tariffs, trade and energy
IN WAR NEWS…
- President Zelenskyy was supposed to meet Putin in Istanbul on Thursday, but Putin sent a lower level delegation instead, so nothing really got done.
- India and Pakistan’s ceasefire held despite heightening tensions. The drama continues…
- Taiwan is due to release a hard-hitting TV drama simulating what would happen in the event of China invading. Some believe that such a drama will mobilise the public like films about nuclear wars did in the UK and US in the 1980s.
IN TARIFF NEWS…
- IG Group reckons that volatile markets prompted by Trump’s unpredictable economic policies will be very profitable as more investors place their bets!
- On the downside, America’s small businesses are suffering greatly because of the tariffs on China. Owners are having to cut headcount and dip into their personal savings to keep their businesses going in the hope that they can ride out the storm until a trade deal is agreed.
- Meanwhile, Chinese companies are doing their best to purge their supply chains of foreign company involvement to ensure better independence in the face of tightening sanctions.
- Trump’s next target for tariffs is going to be the pharmaceuticals industry. He says that drug prices in the US are way more than they are in other parts of the developed world and he wants a level playing field. The share prices of GSK and AstraZeneca fell sharply on the news (although this intention has already been hinted at before). I talk about whether Trump is winning the tariff trade wars in the weekly podcast with Ralph on Episode 937 🎙️!
IN TRADE NEWS…
- The US boasted of making “substantial progress” on trade talks with China and the gold price eased off as a result. Trump’s administration then announced a new “total reset” trade deal which involved both sides cutting tariffs by 115 percentage points either way for 90 days, but the tariffs are still appreciably higher than they were before. The US also cut the tariffs on small China parcels from 120% to 54% – which confirms this point!
- In the meantime, CEOs are now rushing to bring in their shipments from China while they can in the current window of opportunity! On the other side of this, China lifted restrictions on Boeing plane deliveries, reversing a previous decision to suspend them.
- The Trump administration is now thinking about adding Chinese chipmakers to the “entity list” but the Bureau of Industry and Security is pushing back on this for the moment because they say it might adversely affect ongoing US-China trade discussions.
- The US is keen to expand trade with the UK, particularly in pork, poultry and seafood markets and relented on some things whilst British farmers worry about US produce being subject to the same standards as they are. I discussed this with Duncan on Episode 936 of the podcast 🎙️.
- It looks like Europe is going to be the next in line for the Trump treatment as he accused it of being “nastier than China!” regarding the imbalance of trade.
- Trump went on a middle eastern trip and signed $600bn worth of defence, AI and other deals with Saudi Arabia with a view to increasing it to $1tn. He added that he would lift sanctions on Syria as part of normalising relations and, more widely, resetting relations with the Middle East as a whole.
IN TRUMP DEVELOPMENTS…
- The US Supreme Court is currently debating whether individual federal judges are able to block Trump’s executive orders on a national basis. The implications here could be pretty big. At the moment, opinion is split. A decision on this is expected by June or early July.
- Trump’s administration just stopped an additional $450m in grants to Harvard Uni as his assault on the famed institution continues. He already cut $2.2bn from its finances last week. How long can Harvard hold out for??
- Trump had a dig at Apple and its intentions to shift production from China to India. He maintains his desire for production to be shifted to America.
- Trump spent time this week justifying his gift of a luxury plane from Qatar to replace Air Force One. Critics have said this smacks of bribery and corruption while Trump and chums don’t see any problems with it. I guess it saves them some money!
IN ENERGY NEWS…
- Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is preparing to ditch limits on cash from bills going to turbine developers in order to keep his green power target alive.
- Chinese “kill switches” have reportedly been found in American solar farms that can render equipment useless remotely. They were found inside inverters manufactured by some unnamed Chinese companies. Whether or not this is sensationalist propaganda designed to fuel paranoia, it’s another blow to Milliband’s net zero targets.
IN OIL NEWS…
- Saudi Aramco cut its dividend by $10bn as it reported weaker Q1 results. Although this wasn’t great, its performance was better relative to the likes of BP and Shell.
- Opec+ looks like it’s abandoning attempts to boost the oil price as members seem to be ignoring quotas. That being said, the weak oil price is something that Trump has been seeking (although low oil prices are bad for America’s shale producers).
IN INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY NEWS…
- IN THE US – The S&P500 recouped all of its losses for 2025 as stocks rallied on the US-China trade deal. Also, inflation fell unexpectedly in April but it’s thought that the effects of the higher tariffs haven’t yet filtered through.
- IN THE UK – the latest ONS data showed that the UK economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in Q1 this year thanks to a dominant services sector. This could take some of the pressure off the government which has been feeling the heat recently. That being said, PM Starmer is under pressure to easy employment mobility restrictions as we get closer to the UK-EU summit next week.
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IN INVESTMENT, IPO AND M&A NEWS...
IN INVESTMENT NEWS…
- Investors have been dumping dollar assets and shifting into European ones due to concerns over erratic policies and because of catalysts like the German-led defence spending boom and attractive valuations.
- The government is looking at plans to force large pension funds to invest up to £50bn in private assets if they fall short of voluntary targets in an upgrade of the “Mansion House accord”. Pension funds are grumbling but the government wants them to invest some of their vast pools of cash in riskier assets.
- Research from Hamptons showed that buy-to-let investment levels have now fallen to 10% of all homes sold in Britain over Q1, the lowest proportion since 2007 and way off the high of 16% in 2015.
IN M&A AND IPO NEWS…
- Chinese EV battery giant CATL priced up its shares this week for a Hong Kong IPO but although its offering is limited (it’s not being offered to onshore US investors, for instance) there could be some long term upside, particularly if European car makers adopt its new battery.
- eToro floated on the NYSE and saw a 29% pop on its debut! It seems to be playing right into the retail investor boom at the moment.
- US mobile banking group Chime filed for flotation on the NASDAQ. Are these early signs that the IPO market is picking up now?
IN M&A NEWS…
- Dick’s Sporting Goods offered to buy Foot Locker in a deal worth $2.4bn. The offer was made at a massive 90% premium to Foot Locker’s share price – but that has cratered this year. This comes shortly after 3G Capital bought Skechers and is presumably a reaction to Trump’s tariffs. It seems that this sector is ripe for consolidation!
- Samsung Electronics put in an offer to buy Germany’s FlaktGroup from European investment firm Triton for €1.5bn. FlaktGroup makes heating, ventilation and air-conditioning products. This would be Samsung’s biggest acquisition since 2017!
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IN BUSINESS, EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER NEWS...
IN BUSINESS NEWS…
- The latest figures from the ONS showed that business investment in the UK expanded at the fastest pace in two years over Q1! Most of the business investment was in transport, aircraft, IT and machinery.
IN EMPLOYMENT NEWS…
- The latest stats from the CIPD show that the number of UK employers expecting to boost their headcounts over the next quarter has dropped to its lowest level – outside the pandemic – since 2014 thanks to the rise in the minimum wage and economic uncertainty.
- 12,000 civil service jobs are to be moved out of London by 2030, building on a plan launched by the previous government to address regional inequality. The aim is to get 50% of senior civil servants based outside London by 2030.
- EY delayed start dates for its consultancy recruits – for the third year in a row 😱! It said that they won’t be needed until March 2026 at the earliest. Clearly these recruits are casualties of the poorer-than-expected deal pipeline…
IN CONSUMER TRENDS…
- AMERICANS – are delaying major life decisions on things like marriage, kids and buying property due to economic uncertainty under Trump, according to a poll. Separately, research by Rightmove shows that the number of inquiries from the US about UK homes rose by 19% in Q1 this year versus the same period last year. This follows other recent trends like Americans looking at moving their money over here and studying here at university. Meanwhile, they’re facing issues at home as beef prices are rising sharply because cattle inventories have hit their lowest level in over 70 years.
- AS FAR AS BRITS ARE CONCERNED – the US-UK trade deal is not going to lead to consumers buying American beef, according to sandwich-making giant Greencore, because Brits don’t trust American food standards on things like chlorinated chicken and hormone-treated meat. Despite what Tui has said recently, British holidaymakers are ditching the US as a destination and going for Canada instead.
- Vinted tripled its profits in a year to £80m and aims to move into new product categories. It looks like we’re in a second-hand goods retail boom at the moment thanks to increasingly thrifty customers and uncertain economic times I talk about the rise of vintage with Duncan in Episode 935 of the podcast 🎙️.
- The increasing take-up of weight-loss drugs has boosted health food sales at Holland & Barrett thanks to increased consumption of healthy snacks. H&B is now reformulating a lot of its products to keep up the momentum! Clearly this is a positive effect of the jabs, unlike the negative effect experienced by the likes of Weightwatchers which filed for bankruptcy recently.
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IN RETAIL & LEISURE NEWS...
IN RETAIL NEWS…
- Walmart announced that it would be raising prices this month and early this summer as goods affected by tariffs hit its shelves. This is likely to prompt rivals to make similar moves.
- Burberry announced 1,700 job cuts as its profits plunged by 117%. That being said, it appears to have stemmed its decline since Christmas so maybe there are better times ahead.
IN LEISURE NEWS…
- Airbnb is looking to expand in the hospitality market and will offer the ability to book chefs, personal trainers and spa treatments by the end of the year – in addition to home rentals. This will all be under the “experiences” tab of its app.
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IN TECH NEWS...
IN AI…
- IN FUNDING NEWS – OpenAI entered into negotiations with Microsoft to unlock new funding with a view to a future ChatGPT IPO. The current agreement between the two companies runs until 2030. Perplexity is in the process of finalising its latest funding round that’ll give it an implied valuation of $14bn, which is $5bn more than it had just six months ago.
- Insurers at Lloyds of London just launched a product that’ll cover companies for losses from hallucinating AI tools. The policies will cover court costs for claims against companies sued by customers or third parties.
- Saudi Arabia launched a new AI venture called Humain ahead of Donald Trump’s visit this week. It will offer advanced Arabic LLMs for users in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East.
- British Airways’ boss cited the success of AI in helping 86% of flight departures from Heathrow to be on time in Q1, its best ever performance – a great example of a positive use of AI!
- Investors are buying into start-ups that help creative industries to sell content to AI groups such as OpenAI, Meta and Google. Groups such as Pip Labs, Vermillio, Created by Humans, ProRata, Narrativ and Human Native are building tools and marketplaces that help creatives get paid for allowing their content to be used to train AI models. I discuss this with Duncan on Episode 936 of the podcast and how Spotify could perhaps use its model to monetise AI 🎙️! I also talk about it a bit more with Ralph on the weekly podcast in Episode 937 🎙️!
ELSEWHERE…
- Nvidia announced plans to build an R&D centre in Shanghai in a show of commitment to the Chinese market. Sales have weakened of late because of the tightening of US export controls, so this could be useful for Nvidia.
- Baidu announced plans to test driverless taxis in Europe for the first time – in Switzerland! Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxi service will commence testing by the end of this year.
- Microsoft announced plans to cut almost 3% of its global workforce in its biggest mass lay-off since early 2023, when it cut almost 5% of its workforce.
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IN MISCELLANEOUS NEWS...
- IN AUTOMOTIVE NEWS – Panasonic has plunged from world leader on EV batteries to having a market share of less than 5% as the Chinese have forged ahead. It’s still got an industry left but it will need to act fast before it gets swallowed up! Nissan announced that it’s going to cut 20,000 jobs worldwide as its nightmare continues post the failure of the Honda deal and Bentley pointed out that it’s still in limbo re sales to the US despite the new US-UK trade deal. On a more positive note, Jaguar Land Rover had its best profits in a decade and it’s now talking about potentially building cars in the US.
- Wealth manager St James’s Place has staged an impressive recovery over the last 12 months thanks to efforts to cut costs and restore its reputation. Inflows are looking good and it seems that the brand is attracting more people
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