This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week.
THE COLOURED HIGHLIGHT REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.
IN BIG PICTURE NEWS...
We follow the war, the world feels the repercussions and Tesla Energy gets some good news
IN WAR NEWS…
WHAT HAPPENED – Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the deceased former supreme leader, replaced his father as supreme leader. This was interpreted as meaning that there would be “more of the same” in terms of the way the country is run and he remained steadfast in keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut. Iranian exiles called for regime change but in the meantime Iran attacked desalination plants in addition to Big Tech offices and data centres in surrounding Gulf states.
HOW DID THE MARKETS REACT? Stocks fell, oil prices boomed and power prices in Europe were all over the place, depending on when investors thought that the war was going to be over and who/what had been bombed.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS? The war could scupper the global economic recovery as it’s already causing doubts about the direction of interest rates and pushing up prices of important goods such as fertiliser. It’s causing India’s “Goldilocks” economy to wobble and taking the shine off Dubai as a haven in a difficult region. Asian stocks got sold down because Korea and Japan are particularly vulnerable to high oil prices given that they’re big importers for their energy-intensive industries.
Russia’s loving all this because Trump’s fuelling Putin’s war machine by pushing oil prices up (Trump’s even relaxed sanctions to facilitate buying!) – and India and China are buying it because they are so reliant on oil imports.
Commentators are saying that this is the “largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets”. It’s already disrupted events companies, like Informa, and travel companies, like Tui – although events have been postponed rather than cancelled and holidays to the region have been redirected to places like the Caribbean. Airlines that don’t hedge their fuel costs (the Big Four in the US and a lot of Chinese airlines) will suffer, particularly if the war drags on for a long time. Shipping giant Maersk has now suspended all operations at the Port of Salalah in Oman after drones attacked storage facilities there. This port is one of the Middle East’s key shipping and logistics hubs.
The latest official figures from the US Energy Department show that US petrol prices rose by 19% over the last two weeks while diesel prices saw a 28% hike over the same time period and there’s a risk that this war will have long-lasting repercussions on the global economy particularly because there doesn’t appear to be a proper “post-war” plan in place.
IN TRUMP THINGS…
The president’s strategy in Venezuela isn’t working in Iran, particularly as he didn’t get to choose the next leader.
New investigations were launched into EU countries and others – including the UK and Canada – so that the administration could find more excuses/loopholes to justify lifting to tariffs where they were before the Supreme Court spoiled the party. Meanwhile, on tariffs, there are efforts afoot by Costco customers to claw back tariff costs because of the Supreme Court’s decision.
IN REGIONAL/INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY NEWS…
IN THE AMERICAS…
THE US – US inflation was steady in February but the Iran effect probably isn’t included in this. Investors have been cutting their bets on any Fed rate cuts but the Fed is also looking at loosening restrictions on Wall Street banks in order to encourage lending and claw back market share from private credit groups. This doesn’t look like a good idea right now because of all the instability…
CANADA – the PM Mark Carney announced plans to invest most of a $25.7bn fund earmarked for defence spending into “forward operating bases” in the Arctic to assist Canadian armed forces in defending the Arctic “without the help of allies”. Sounds like a good idea!
IN ASIA…
CHINA – China’s exports boomed by 21.8% in the first two months of this year, which shows that all of America’s attempts to restrict its exports just didn’t work. Meanwhile, there was also good news about China’s consumer prices rebounding last month as they rose at their steepest pace in over three years thanks to lunar new year celebrations and booming oil prices, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. This is good because China has been suffering from deflationary pressures for over three years because of sluggish consumer demand.
IN EUROPE…
UK – Rachel Reeves said that UK inflation is likely to rise because of the war, which makes it more likely that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged for the year. Areas of the economy that are most likely to suffer include supermarkets with petrol forecourt operations (like Asda and Sainsbury’s), retailers across fashion, DIY and electronics (because they’ll have to hold more inventory), airlines (because of rising fuel prices, longer routes and falling demand) and manufacturing (because of higher energy prices). It might be mixed for banks (because although they can make more money with higher interest rates but loan defaults also rise) but it will be good for oil majors (like BP and Shell) and defence companies (like BAE Systems). In real estate it might not be great for landlords – like British Land and Land Securities – but it could be good for warehouse operators like Segro (because companies will probably want to carry more inventory to cushion against supply chain shocks).
Our gas supplies are looking vulnerable and the chancellor pledged to protect households from higher energy bills (although we don’t know where the money’s going to come from). The government should also consider unlocking investment in the North Sea in order to help with any future shocks…
COMMODITIES…
OIL – oil prices have shot up and although there’s been some volatility at the higher price levels depending on Trump’s pronouncements about the war, everyone’s speculating about how far north prices could go. Some are saying that they will breach the previous peak of $145.29 reached in July 2008 and hit $150 a barrel. The IEA then ordered the biggest ever release of stockpiled oil to take the edge off the rising oil price but the question is will it really bring down fuel costs?? It all depends on how long the war goes on for. Saudi Aramco, the Saudi Arabian state oil firm, warned about the “catastrophic consequences” of a prolonged blockage, so pressure is mounting to get this done.
GAS – this is actually a bigger problem than oil because of Qatar’s recent shutdown of its LNG facilities. There are no global gas reserves à la IEA for LNG, so everyone is highly exposed to higher gas prices. Europe and Asia are competing for limited LNG supplies and although the UK doesn’t import that much, everyone’s competing for the existing supply so we’ll be impacted by higher prices.
IN ENERGY NEWS…
Tesla has been given the all-clear by Ofgem to become a household energy supplier in Britain. It will be able to supply electricity to households and businesses up and down the country.
IN INVESTMENT & BUSINESS NEWS...
IN INVESTMENT NEWS/TRENDS…
HALO – AI-resistant HALO (Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence) stocks are driving the UK and EU markets to record levels. Goldman Sachs classifies them as ones that have both substantial physical capital and evergreen economic relevance.
PRIVATE CREDIT – retail investors continue to shun private credit funds after Blue Owl stopped redemptions recently and Blue Owl’s share price has now fallen below its 2021 listing price. Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund saw big outflows in Q1 and the AI/tech sell-off is is hitting private credit badly because they invested heavily into it.
IPOs – Loveholidays looks like it’s going to postpone its IPO because of the war in Iran. It was supposed to be the London Stock Exchange’s first big listing of 2026.
M&A – The latest numbers from the ONS showed that the total value of foreign takeovers of British companies hit its highest level for four years in the final quarter of 2025, mainly thanks to Doordash buying Deliveroo, KKR buying Spectris and Athora Holding buying Pension Insurance Corporation Group.
All3Media Banijay Entertainment are going to merge to form an $8bn TV production group that will generate about €4.4bn a year in revenues and over €690bn in earnings.
BrewDog’s retail investors, who invested over £75m in BrewDog via crowdfunding between 2009 and 2021, are going to get zero after US brewery and cannabis producer Tilray struck a £33m deal to buy all of BrewDog’s brands. Ouch.
IN BUSINESS NEWS/TRENDS…
PREDICTION MARKETS – Trump insiders are thought to be “profiting from the war” as there were some questionable trading patterns very close to the US strike in Iran. I think that this kind of betting is sooooo wide open to abuse because you can bet on so many things that are difficult to monitor – but it continues to gain momentum! DraftKings is trying to fight back by integrating its prediction markets platform into its core app but British gambling companies, such as Flutter, are still reeling from the onslaught of Polymarket and Kalshi.
IN SENTIMENT – the latest IoD survey showed that executives are feeling pretty downbeat thanks to ongoing higher employment costs, a worsening late payments crisis and increased geopolitical volatility. Separately, research from accountancy firm Lubbock Fine showed that small businesses are increasingly trying to cut their growth in order to stay under the £90,000 VAT threshold. In order to do this, some SMEs are cutting opening hours, closing on quiet days or shifting to a four-day week. Some are engaging in “business splitting” where owners separate operations into different entities to cut turnover. Not great for economic growth!
IN EMPLOYMENT, CONSUMER & RETAIL NEWS...
IN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS…
IN SOUTH KOREA – the country is letting in rising numbers of foreign low-skilled workers – many of whom come from Bangladesh or the Philippines – due to a shrinking work population and the world’s lowest fertility rate.
IN AMERICA – Morgan Stanley is going to cut around 3% of its workforce across investment banking, trading, wealth management and investment management businesses. This is despite the bank reporting record annual revenues that were up a healthy 14% versus the previous year. AI wasn’t mentioned here and I’d say that investment banks tend to do this from time to time to keep everyone on their toes…
IN THE UK – Britain’s unemployment rate is now worse than Italy’s for only the second time in thirty years! Data from the Bank of England says that that businesses have had their longest streak of job cuts since the pandemic and this trend seemed to be echoed by recruitment firm PageGroup which saw its share price tank by 20% on news that it had seen a 60% fall in profits! The company blamed the “tougher” trading conditions in the UK and observed that companies in Britain were “deferring hiring decisions and candidates [were] cautious about accepting offers”. Another study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies pointed out that employers face a 40% rise in costs under the government’s proposals to ditch the youth rate of the minimum wage. The government is against “discriminatory age bands” but the fact of the matter is that doing this is going to mean that employers won’t employ those extra people at a time where jobs are getting increasingly scarce.
IN CONSUMER TRENDS…
IN JAPAN – Japanese retailers like Uniqlo, Muji and Don Quijote are trying to adapt to not having Chinese visitors as they’ve kept away from Japan ever since PM Takaichi made some blunt remarks a few months ago about how Japan would react if China invaded Taiwan (Japan would treat an attack on Taiwan as an attack on Japan).
IN THE UK – the latest BRC figures showed that shop prices slowed down thanks to discounting in fashion, health and beauty. This is good news for the consumer for now, but the Iran war could potentially push global inflation up again.
IN RETAIL NEWS…
John Lewis is thinking about buying back some of its supermarkets with its £1.5bn cash pile. This sounds like a confident move to me and reflects a wider turnaround at the company!
Modella Capital, the private equity firm that bought WH Smith’s high street business (now called TG Jones) is looking at shutting down 80 stores. It’s spent £14m on refurbishing the chain since it bought it last year. FWIW, I think that £14m is a paltry sum, renaming the chain TG Jones shows a complete lack of care (have you seen the corporate BS explanation behind the naming 🤣?!?) – which suggests to me that the whole deal was all about asset stripping and selling off the stores right from the off.
IN CASUAL DINING NEWS…
Greggs saw profits slump and sales slow down against the backdrop of a “challenging” market with squeezes on disposable income and fragile consumer confidence.
IN TECH NEWS...
IN TECH NEWS…
IN AI – DeepSeek was due to release its long-awaited V4 “multimodal” model this week. It will be able to generate pictures, videos and text. I didn’t hear anything subsequent to this, however!
IN CHIPS – Nvidia has now stopped production of chips intended for the Chinese market – the H200 chips – and has instead reallocated manufacturing capacity at TSMC to making the next-gen Vera Rubin hardware.
IN MEDIA NEWS…
IN AUTOMOTIVE NEWS...
IN AUTOMOTIVE NEWS…
According to the latest figures from the SMMT, new car registrations for February were the highest in over 20 years but the take-up of EVs was less resounding. The market share of new EVs contracted for the second month in a row.
IN EV NEWS – BYD’s February sales fell at their steepest rate for five years as decent overseas sales could not make up for weakness in its domestic market. On the plus side, the company released a new EV battery that can be fully charged in nine minutes! The battery can get to 70% of capacity from 10% in five minutes and is the second-gen of what the company calls its “blade battery” that’s thinner and lighter than other batteries. BYD also released a new 1,500-kilowatt charging station, called a “flash charging station”.
IN DRIVERLESS NEWS – Admiral and Aviva, the UK’s two biggest car insurers, both reckon that the insurance market will continue to grow for the next 20-odd years despite the threat from autonomous vehicles.
IN REAL ESTATE NEWS...
Bank of England figures showed that UK mortgage approvals fell to their lowest level in 2 years while the latest Nationwide numbers show that UK house prices rose in February. We can’t really get excited though because we don’t yet know what effect the Iran war will have.
London landlords are evicting tenants ahead of the introduction of the new Renters Rights Act that will be implemented in May that will give renters protections against unjustified dispossessions.
Vacancy rates are continuing to climb in student accommodation thanks to cost-of-living pressures, increasingly burdensome student loans and tighter student visa policies. Unite Group, Britain’s biggest student housing provider, is suffering as a result.
Although Vistry painted a dour picture of the outlook and saw its share price hitting depths it’s not seen since the 2016 Brexit vote, things might be about to get better for UK home builders due to streamlined legislation, improved affordability and potential help for buyers to come from the government.
BANTER
I had two favourite videos of the week this week! I liked the one about the carbonara for the sheer inventiveness and the one with the dog that used The Force to retrieve a ball!