Watson’s Weekly 13-09-2025

This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week. 

THE COLOURED HIGHLIGHT REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.

IN WAR NEWS…

• Putin decided to execute a drone attack over Poland. NATO fighter jets were scrambled and shot down some of the projectiles but it marks a new, more dangerous chapter in the Ukraine war because it’s the first time the alliance has engaged directly with the Russian military.

IN TARIFF NEWS…

• Trump put pressure on the EU to slap China and India with 100% taxes to turn the screws on Russia (they are big buyers of Russia’s oil, which in turn finances their Ukraine war efforts). Crucially, America said that it wouldn’t impose further sanctions until the Europeans do.
• Talking about pressure, Mexico caved to US pressure and imposed a 50% tariff on Chinese car imports – the maximum level allowed by the WTO rules. Mexico’s in a tricky position because it was the world’s biggest buyer of Chinese-made cars in the first half of this year but then it’s also America’s biggest trading partner.

IN TRUMP THINGS…

• IN IMMIGRATION – South Korea chartered a plane to repatriate Hyundai workers who were unceremoniously marched out of a factory in Georgia by ICE. Trump maintained that experts were still welcome but the optics aren’t encouraging for future outside investment! Korean companies admitted that they had cut corners on US visas but they said that they had to do this because, over the years, America had pushed them to invest more in the country but refused to issue short-term working visas for time-critical projects so they had to be flexible on the use of existing visas.
• IN COURT JUDGMENTS – Trump lost his attempt to defame writer E Jean Carroll who accused him of rape. He tried to plead presidential immunity but a New York appeals court threw this out and he’s going to have to shell out $83m in compensation. He’s now appealing to the Supreme Court. Talking of which, the Supreme Court has decided to fast-track the appeal regarding the legality of Trump’s liberation day tariffs to the first week of November. Meanwhile, a Washington judge ruled that Trump can’t fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook while litigation is still pending. This decision means that Cook will be able to participate in the Fed’s policy-setting committee meeting next week but he’s not giving up because he has asked the appeals court to fire her before that meeting!
• IN MAHA MATTERS – the White House has now laid out its health and food policy changes following a broad clutch of 128 recommendations announced by health secretary Robert F Kennedy in his 20-page “Make America Healthy Again Commission” report. If implemented, the recommendations could change the economics of the healthcare, food and agriculture industries. Suggested measures include a new vaccine framework, restriction of D2C drug advertising, not putting fluoride in water, changes regarding sunscreen etc.
• REGARDING EPSTEIN – the Democrats published a birthday message that the president allegedly sent to Jeffrey Epstein over 20 years ago which Trump maintains does not exist. This caused chaos (particularly over in the UK!). Interestingly, the administration has just decided to step away from joint efforts in Europe to combat disinformation from countries including Russia, China and Iran.
• AHEAD OF THE UK VISIT – JD Vance is lining up US nuclear companies, probably with a view to the president making some big announcements when he makes his UK state visit next week. Chiefs of Nvidia and OpenAI will accompany the president next week and it looks like they’ll announce some big AI infrastructure investments as well.

IN REGIONAL/COUNTRY NEWS…

IN THE AMERICAS…

• IN THE US – the economy added fewer jobs than expected and inflation edged up but it seems that an interest rate cut is still widely expected despite the Fed saying that employment was something that they were monitoring particularly closely regarding the direction of travel. Even Fed Chief Jay Powell recently said that a softer jobs market would take the edge off inflation. MAGA influencer Charlie Kirk was shot dead at a rally, which caused outrage and cries of recrimination from the president and other supporters.
• IN ARGENTINA – Argentine markets fell after president Milei’s party did particularly badly in the elections for the country’s biggest province. Midterm elections are not too far away so this was seen as an indicator of how that might go.
• IN BRAZIL – former president Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in jail for attempting a coup d’état when he lost the 2022 election.

IN ASIA…

• IN JAPAN – the PM quit, making way for a new leader. He jumped before he was pushed but will remain in office until another candidate is found. This comes at a tricky time for the country as it faces threats in the region and isn’t having a great time with Trump.

IN EUROPE…

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 2%, but this was widely expected. Meanwhile, Trump’s unpredictability and Putin’s relentless aggression is pushing Norway towards joining the EU. The likelihood of the country joining is currently higher than it’s ever been and there’s growing support for a referendum.

• IN FRANCE – the government collapsed because PM Bayrou lost a vote of no confidence. It had been expected so it wasn’t that surprising to see that president Macron had someone lined up to replace him – long time Macron-loyalist Sébastien Lecornu.
• IN RUSSIA – although Putin appears to be making progress outside Russia both militarily and politically, Russia’s domestic economy is getting trickier and could potentially fall into recession.
• IN THE UK – Labour has vowed to continue with the workers’ rights bill but then we saw an example of how unions are getting the upper hand as the RMT launched a strike for four days this week. The main winners from this were dockless bicycle companies – such as Lime and Forest – as well as Halfords, which saw a 30% increase in sales at its London outlets versus the previous weekend! Meanwhile, Kier Starmer put together a “Budget board” to help the chancellor in the run-up to the Budget but faced criticism for choosing Peter Mandelson as US ambassador despite knowing his past dodginess. Mandy was sacked over his Epstein links. Meanwhile, Reeves hired a planning lawyer to help speed up progress of major infrastructure projects. Sounds like a plan!

IN COMMODITIES NEWS…

• IN OIL – Opec+ agreed to boost output as Saudi Arabia is now looking at chasing market share rather than protecting margin. Meanwhile, Ineos Energy announced that it would pull out of all of its UK investments and put it all into the US, blaming the UK’s high energy prices that have been powered largely by green levies.
• IN GOLD – the price keeps rising and breached $3,600 this week as investors continue to seek out safe havens for their cash in the current climate of uncertainty.

IN ENERGY NEWS…

• Saudi Arabia is emerging as a major force in solar. If things continue like this, they’ll get more of their power from the sun which will leave them with more oil to sell to everyone else!
• Power storage continues to be a key part of our energy future and Scottish company Invinity Energy Systems is making great progress with flow batteries which can store power for longer than other more commonly-used tech, are cheaper to make and last much longer.

IN MINING NEWS…

• Anglo American and Teck Resources announced a $50bn merger to create a copper powerhouse. The enlarged entity Anglo Tek will be headquartered in Vancouver but keep its primary listing in London (which I’m sure the LSE will be pleased about!). This will be the second biggest merger in the history of the mining sector.

IN CRYPTO NEWS…

• Packaging group Eightco Holdings saw its share price go moon bound as it surged by 3,000% when it announced a strategy to buy up Worldcoin tokens, echoing Strategy’s wildly successful play of buying up and storing bitcoin – but with a different crypto asset. Are we reaching the point where this seemingly crazy asset might actually work??
• Shares in bitcoin hoarders weakened this week. Names like Strategy, Metaplanet and Smarter Web Company were hit badly. Some company valuations have now fallen below the value of the crypto they hold, which is concerning.
• There was a really interesting article on how Trump went from crypto-sceptic to crypto fanboy – and it basically stemmed from when he and his family got debanked in the wake of the Capitol Hill riots and subsequent blow-back. It makes a lot of sense and is definitely worth a read if you have access to it!

IN INVESTMENT TRENDS NEWS…

• IN IPOs – it looks like things are getting back on track in the US. Although only $22bn has been raised in IPOs so far this year in the US, the pipeline is looking good. Renaissance Capital reckons that there could be 40 to 60 US IPOs between now and the year end that could raise around $10bn. The fact that Klarna had a decent market debut this week will certainly have added to the feelgood! It looks like things might be improving in Europe as well on the IPO front, so all eyes will be on the likes of Verisure, ISS Stoxx and Swiss Marketplace Group who will be floating over the next few months.
• IN M&A – Paramount Skydance is preparing to make a cash bid for Warner Bros Discovery but it’s not yet formalised and given that Warner is more than double the size of Paramount, this could yet fall apart. Still, it shows confidence!
• IN FUNDING – French AI start-up Mistral got big backing from ASML as the Dutch semiconductor equipment making company took an 11% stake. Mistral is still way smaller than bigger rivals OpenAI and Anthropic.

IN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS…

• UK hiring demand has hit a new low thanks to the impact of AI an uncertainty in policy. This comes shortly after news that wage growth has hit its slowest pace since December 2021. Under-35s are moving from “quiet quitting” to “job-hugging” and sick days have hit their highest level in 15 years!
• Microsoft is cracking down on internal comms channels and putting in place security measures following a recent protest by employees about its contract with the Isreaeli government. Will this kind of action become more widespread??

IN CONSUMER TRENDS…

• IN THE US – America’s middle classes have seen their spending power fall to a historic low, according to Moody’s Analytics’ latest research, while the rich are getting richer and poor are getting poorer. Moody’s chief economist said that globalisation and rising Chinese dominance in manufacturing have played a crucial role in this by reducing the number of jobs available for middle earners. As if that’s not enough, Americans are now facing the biggest increase in healthcare insurance costs in 15 years!
• IN THE UK – the GfK consumer confidence index reflected a divergence in confidence among different demographics. The over-65s are getting more pessimistic whereas Gen-Zs are getting more optimistic! It’ll be interesting to see what effect the Budget will have as companies and individuals hunker down…in the meantime, UK pay growth appears to be grinding to a halt according to the latest figures from Incomes Data Research (IDR) which shows that average pay growth across the economy dropped to its slowest pace since December 2021.

IN TECH NEWS…

• Apple launched its new gadgetry this week, including its first £2,000 handset. It also said that it was blocking EU users from its new Airpods Live Translation tool as a reaction to the implementation of the Digital Markets Act, which it doesn’t like.
• US start-up PsiQuantum attracted a record $1bn in its latest funding round in its bid to build a quantum computer by 2028! Sceptics say that we’re still decades away from building a truly useful quantum machine that can solve some of the most difficult scientific problems.
• IN AI – OpenAI signed a massive $300bn cloud computing deal with Oracle. The news had such a big impact that it propelled founder and CEO Larry Ellison past Elon Musk to briefly become the richest man in the world. The FTC launched an inquiry into AI “companions” used by teens on platforms from the likes of OpenAI, Meta, Google and xAI. This was prompted by the rising number of cases involving suicides and serious harm to young users. OpenAI and Microsoft held more talks about OpenAI’s restructuring and Microsoft signed a deal worth up to $20bn with the AI infrastructure group Nebius to supply computing power for its AI operations for the next five years. Online travel platforms including Booking.com and Expedia are signing partnership deals with AI companies to defend against being bypassed by AI agents.

IN MEDIA NEWS…

• Rupert Murdoch resolved the matter of his succession by handing over his media empire to his eldest son, Lachlan, after buying out three of his kids for $3.3bn. They will give up their ownership interests in News Corp and Fox for a cool $1.1bn each.
• IN ADVERTISING – TV companies are getting increasingly concerned about the potential affect on ad revenues if Trump cracks down hard on direct-to-consumer drug advertising. At the moment, the pharmaceutical industry accounts for about 20% of all TV news advertising.
• IN SOCIAL MEDIA – some former Meta employee whistleblowers made some very concerning allegations in front of a Senate judiciary sub-committee that Meta made efforts to hide worrying internal research on the safety of kids using their VR products.

IN TELECOMS NEWS…

• SpaceX paid $17bn for the rights to use some of EchoStar’s spectrum for cellphone service. It will use the domestic and international rights to send out signals from space! SpaceX is already becoming a bigger broadband provider via its Starlink business and has thus far flirted with the mobile phone sector thanks to a US partnership with T-Mobile. This makes a lot of strategic sense and will really throw the cat among the pigeons with existing providers. This is particularly amazing for EchoStar considering that it was facing bankruptcy just 18 months ago!

IN EV NEWS…

• Stellantis announced that it had decided to ditch its deadline of making only EVs by 2030. Interestingly, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is due to meet automotive industry leaders this week to talk about a relaxation of the 2035 EV deadline.
• Beijing has called for the EV price war among China’s 129 car makers to end and it’s also pushing them to pay suppliers within 60 days, something that BYD will be particularly impacted by. Ironically, BYD has also been behind a lot of the price pressure as well.
• State-owned Chinese car firm Changan is going to launch in Britain. It’s first model will be Model Y rival that will undercut it by about £5,000 and is called the Deepal SO7. It’s the first of six models that it plans on launching in the UK.

IN BATTERY NEWS…

• The UK is facing a growing problem of a mounting stockpile of used EV batteries. According to estimates by battery start-up Altilium and its partner recell.store up to 90% of the roughly 23,500 batteries that have reached the end of their life in the UK are actually in storage. Recycling these batteries is going to be huge as time goes on – and although it has proved to be too expensive thus far, we’re getting to the stage that it’s becoming more commercially viable.

IN RETAIL NEWS…

• In China, Miniso is trying to replicate the success of Pop Mart’s collectable Labubu dolls with a new range of Wakuku dolls. It’s hired nine artists to produce designs and develop their own characters. The runaway success of Labubu dolls has powered Pop Mart’s growth to the extent that it’s now bigger than Mattel and Hasbro combined!!! No wonder they want a piece of the action! Will others have a go as well??
• Zara-owner Inditex saw its sales lose momentum over Q2 thanks to the impact of tariffs and a strong US dollar. On the plus side, it has seen an uptick in recent trading.
• Primark’s owner, AB Foods, reported mixed results and warned of a tricky outlook for consumer confidence in Europe which is already hitting sales.
• Losses at the John Lewis Partnership over the first half of the year almost tripled thanks to restructuring costs and new tax and regulatory charges. It said that it expected the “macroeconomic environment to remain challenging” but was increasing investment to put it in a position where it could “deliver full-year profit growth”.
• M&S’s chief digital and tech officer resigned having only been in the job for just over a year. She had pointed out M&S’s weaknesses when she joined but I guess that someone had to take the fall for the major hacking attack it endured.

IN LEISURE NEWS…

• IN AIRLINES NEWS – Southwest Airlines, which has been the only US carrier that guarantees a second seat – free of charge – to those who don’t fit into a single one, is going to restrict this benefit from January 27. It’s unclear as to how much this will impact the company, but it’s also slimming down its operations by shedding 15% of its corporate workforce and ending its longstanding policy of two checked bags free with every ticket.
• IN RESTAURANTS NEWS – Domino’s is launching its new Chick ‘N’ Dip brand across 187 stores in the northwest of England and Northern Ireland after over a year of development. The range has been developed to work in the ovens of Domino’s existing kitchens which means that it’ll be able to use its existing infrastructure. Sounds like a decent idea! Meanwhile, Pret A Manger is planning a stock market flotation, but it’s not sure yet of whether it will do so on the LSE or elsewhere. At the moment, it’s testing a “meal deal” format to see whether this will boost its profits.

• IN REAL ESTATE TRENDS – firms are finding that they downsized too much under Covid and are now finding it difficult to get office space. The problem is that there is a lack of available properties as many companies overestimated how long the WFH trend was going to last. IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY, Londoners are buying the lowest share of property outside the capital since 2013, according to the latest research from Countrywide. This is thanks to a stagnant local market and the switch back to office working. The property market is also slowing down because people are getting increasingly jittery ahead of Reeves’s Budget. That being said, the UK’s biggest housebuilder (Vistry) was quite upbeat about its prospects despite seeing a drop in first half profits. Recent data from Moneyfacts showed that buy-to-let borrowing costs have fallen to a three-year low as lenders have doubled the number of products on offer to attract landlords’ business. Budget worries may dampen things for the moment, but if landlords come back this could help renters!
• IN PHARMACEUTICAL NEWS – Novo Nordisk is planning to cut 9,000 jobs and has slashed its profit forecasts. The Ozempic and Wegovy maker is cutting its headcount by a whopping 11% as it continues to lose ground against US rival Eli Lilly. US drug maker Merck decided to ditch plans to build a new lab in London and is laying off 125 scientists as a result. The site is already under construction and was scheduled to open in two years’ time. This is a real blow to Starmer’s life sciences ambitions.
• Hargreaves Lansdown and Schroders are to offer private markets to the masses by offering two long term asset funds. They will give customers access to unlisted investments via self-invested personal pensions for the first time.
• Law Society figures show that Britain’s legal services trade balance jumped by more than 50% while UK legal exports increased by around 44% over the last four years. The main markets were the EU and US.
• US retail coffee prices had their steepest year-on-year rise this century and Trump’s recently-imposed tariffs on Brazil are about to make things much worse. Global coffee markets boomed over the past year thanks to poor harvests in major exporting countries hitting production.

Yes, I know it’s a bit mushy of me, but my fave video this week was by far the one with the reaction of the baby on the piano to his (?) dad playing piano 😍!