This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week.
THE COLOURED HIGHLIGHT REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.
IN BIG PICTURE NEWS...
The Iran war rages on, good-bye cheap oil and Italy says hello coal
IN WAR NEWS…
This week’s TRUMP BOASTS included – the president saying that the US could “take the oil in Iran”. He also said that Tehran is “agreeing” to a US peace plan but then Iran said that its troops “are waiting or American soldiers to enter so they can set fire to their souls”. He then said that the war would end in “two or three weeks” .
This week’s TRUMP THREATS included – saying that he’d stop supplies of weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined a Hormuz coalition and that he would take the export hub of Kharg Island. He said that the US might pull out even if a peace deal is not reached and lashed out at France for not letting US warplanes fly over its territory.
RESPONSES included – Britain hosting talks with 35 countries for talks about the Strait of Hormuz. Iran escalating things by attacking a Kuwaiti power and water plant.
WHAT’S THE IMPACT OF ALL THIS? Oil prices have risen by 60% since the beginning of March – while gold fell by almost 15% over the same time period, meaning that the metal is on course to have its worst month since 2008.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz means helium supplies, needed for chipmakers and healthcare, are being choked off. Fast fashion will suffer because of broken supply chains, hospitality businesses will go belly-up due to rising costs and tourism in Cyprus and Turkey is getting pummelled. Thousands of flights to the region have been cancelled and many more could be; higher fertiliser, fuel, gas and shipping costs are going to hit grocery bills and some consumer goods companies have already put their prices up.
On a broader basis, the IMF warned that the Middle East conflict will result in higher prices and slower global growth, Eurozone borrowing costs are soaring, European companies are looking more vulnerable than ever because they currently have less capacity to deal with the Iran war fallout than they did before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Qatar is really suffering from the hit it took on its Ras Laffan LNG plant, which could mean that Qatar could sell off at least some of the UK real estate and retail assets to raise money for reparations.
THOUGHTS ON THE WAR SO FAR…
China could be looking at the success that Iran is having with the Strait of Hormuz and do something similar in the Taiwan Strait. If China blockaded the Taiwan Strait it could “win” Taiwan without firing a shot and wreak more damage on the world’s economy by choking supply of chips to the world as Taiwan’s TSMC makes 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. Industries around the world would just grind to a halt. No one is going to want to take on China’s navy.
Starmer is keen to align more closely with the EU, although he’s been keen to point out that he would not be “choosing” between America and Europe. I often wonder how people would have voted in the Brexit referendum if they knew then what we know now!
Iran could potentially emerge from all this stronger and more dangerous than it was before because it has long threatened closing off the Strait of Hormuz but now that it’s done so for real and seen the havoc it causes, it could just do this whenever it feels like it. Funnily enough, Trump has, inadvertently it seems, empowered both China and Iran by forcing them to play their “aces”. Iran is playing its Strait of Hormuz ace now but last year, China forced the US to roll back its tariffs by making threats about the supply of rare earths.
Although Trump comes in for a lot of criticism for having no apparent plan re Iran it would be fair to say that Europe doesn’t either – but then again we didn’t go and invade Iran…
IN TRUMP THINGS…
The president’s popularity seems to be taking a bashing at the moment as “No Kings” demonstrations took place across the weekend and even his MAGA base is questioning the rationale regarding the war. He’s not addressing the affordability problem that he said he’d solve in his election campaign – and that could come back to bite him when it comes to the midterm elections – if they happen. There are rumours that he will cancel them…
A district court judge ordered the president to stop building his new $400m ballroom until Congress approves its completion. Trump didn’t like that.
It looks like King Charles is going to go ahead with his state visit to the US in April despite the president’s continued slagging off of Starmer and shaky relations with the UK. It would be Charles’ first official US tour as King and the first by a British monarch since 2007 and will mark “the 250th anniversary of American Independence”. Let’s hope he doesn’t get the Zelenskyy treatment…
IN INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY NEWS…
After having put in a decent Q1 performance, Chinese exporters are now looking forward to being able to grab more market share given their large oil reserves and domestic energy supplies while other manufacturers in other parts of the world face big energy price hikes.
In the UK, apparently Rachel Reeves is quietly pocketing £20m a day from taxes related to oil and gas. On the other hand, some argue that any gains will be more than offset by rises in the cost of government borrowing.
IN COMMODITIES NEWS…
OIL – we’re not going back to the era of $70 a barrel oil (last year’s average price) anytime soon because even if the war ends shortly, infrastructure will have to be built back up, ships will have to be rerouted and Iran will probably charge tolls for safe passage through the Strait, which will also add to the price. Insurance will no doubt be more expensive as well.
GOLD – there has been talk about gold losing its safe haven status because its price has weakened since the war. However, I think that it’s been sold off by investors who wanted to raise funds and crystalise some of that tremendous performance that gold has enjoyed over the last year or so. Given the likely continuation of an unstable geopolitical backdrop for the foreseeable future, I reckon it’ll come back.
COAL – Asia is now turning to coal as an energy source as it needs energy NOW and because it’s cheap and abundant. Coal producers including China and India are scrambling to access stockpiles while others are starting to fire up coal-fired power plants, shrugging off environmental concerns. Italy is now looking into keeping coal-fired power stations open for another decade…
IN IN INVESTMENT, BUSINESS & EMPLOYMENT NEWS...
IN INVESTMENT NEWS/TRENDS…
IPOs – SpaceX filed paperwork with the SEC to float in New York with a view to coming to market as early as June. Punchy, given that there’s a war on…
M&A – LSEG data showed that Q1 of 2026 has been the best ever quarterly performance for M&A with 22 transactions valued at $10bn or more being announced over this period. This beat Q4 of 2015 when there were 21 such deals. Interestingly, the number of smaller deals is down. There’s still a lot going on what with Estée Lauder in talks to buy Puig, Pernod Ricard looking to buy Brown Forman and Tilman Fertitta in talks with Caesar’s Entertainment. Unilever announced a whopping $66bn deal to combine its food division with McCormick.
Intel announced that it would be buying back the piece of an Irish semiconductor plant that it sold to Apollo Global Management two years ago for $11.2bn. It’s buying it back for $14bn now that it’s finances are on a better footing.
Amazon is in talks to buy $9bn satellite group Globalstar in order to close the gap with Starlink. It wants to boost its constellation of Low Earth Orbit satellites.
MONEY RAISING – OpenAI had another massive fund raising round and it’s now got an implied valuation of $852bn.
Wearable device maker Whoop had a funding round that gave it an implied valuation of $10bn. It’s hoping to do an IPO within the next two years. FWIW I reckon they should go for it sooner rather than later (markets/geopolitical situation notwithstanding) because I think they’re a one-trick pony – and an expensive one at that. I think that they can be undermined by so many other companies in terms of pricing!
IN BUSINESS NEWS/TRENDS…
PRIVATE CREDIT – distressed debt funds, such as Strategic Value Partners, are seeing the private credit downturn as the “greatest opportunity” since 2008. Investors are trying to get their money out of these vehicles and so funds are having to sell the debt at distressed prices. The US Treasury has called in domestic and international insurance regulators to talk about private credit risks after recent concerning developments, so this is being treated seriously!
BRITISH BUSINESSES – the left-leaning Institute for Public Policy and Research think tank published research which showed that British businesses invest the second-lowest amount in their economy among the G7 countries at the equivalent of 11.1% of GDP in 2023. Only Canada is worse! As if to prove the point, defence company execs have been warning the government that bureaucratic delays risk pushing cutting edge British defence tech companies abroad. Some may even go bust because of delays to the government’s military spending plans, as espoused in the 10-year Defence Investment Plan (DIP).
IN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS…
In an industry-wide survey of 20,000 hospitality businesses, two-thirds of respondents said that they plan to cut jobs and one in seven said that they’d be forced to close. According to the latest figures from the Institute of Directors, economic confidence has hit an all-time low. That being said, the Low Pay Commission did some analysis which showed that the chancellor’s decision to hike the UK minimum wage by 6.7% last spring hasn’t affected employment all that much. I suspect that the LPC is talking its own book here because everything else points to the opposite being true!
The AI spectre continues to hang over jobs. Shares In Future, the publisher of Marie Claire and a number of other titles, saw its share price bomb by 30% in trading this week because of a sharp drop in traffic from Google. The advent of Google’s AI overviews at the top of its research results has decimated click-through rates. Meanwhile, Oracle announced the rollout of job cuts this week across all business lines. The company’s share price has almost halved in the last six months as investors have taken fright about its massive financial commitments to AI datacentre build-outs.
IN CONSUMER, RETAIL & LEISURE NEWS...
IN CONSUMER TRENDS…
The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) is now warning that grocery shoppers could face average price rises of up to 10% by the end of this year thanks to the conflict in the Middle East. That being said, the CEO of Sainsbury’s said that he thinks food price rises won’t kick in until the summer. The price of coffee doesn’t look like it’ll come down anytime soon despite better harvest expectations, because surging fuel and freight costs are starting to push prices back up!
UK borrowers coming off five-year fixed mortgage rates look like facing a major shock when they come to renegotiating, according to industry body UK Finance. Also the Bank of England has warned that the Iran war could push up mortgage payments for 1.3m households.
IN RETAIL NEWS…
M&S is looking to crack America by making its womenswear available in 30 Nordstrom stores across the country. The collection will be a curated selection of over 60 of its bestselling items. M&S already sells food in the US via a partnership with Target, which sells over 30,000 bags of Percy Pigs every week!
Boohoo Group, which which changed its name last year to Debenhams Group, saw its share price rise by 3.81% after headline profits came in “comfortably ahead” of guidance and its positive outlook.
IN CONSUMER GOODS NEWS…
Nike’s share price tumbled thanks to an unexpected downbeat assessment of its prospects for 2026. It blamed tougher conditions in greater China and disruptions in Europe and the Middle East but this is a first mis-step under the “new/old” chief exec who came out of retirement to save Nike.
IN LEISURE NEWS…
Summer travel is likely to get more expensive as travellers are going to face fuel surcharges. Some airlines have already jacked up fares and baggage fees while routes are being cut back as they react to the massive rise in jet fuel prices.
IN TECH & SOCIAL MEDIA NEWS...
IN TECH NEWS…
IN CHIPS – US memory chip companies – like Micron and Sandisk – were sold off this week thanks to new Google research which highlighted efficiency improvements which mean that fewer chips will be needed to power AI models.
IN SOCIAL MEDIA NEWS…
Ofcom research found that active social media use has dropped sharply as people are posting less frequently and getting more careful about their approach to online content. Some respondents said that they were becoming more selective about what and how they posted on social media and 43% of respondents were worried about how their online posts might give them problems in the future.
IN AUTOMOTIVE NEWS...
IN BATTERY NEWS…
Finnish start-up Donut Lab claims that it has created the first production-ready solid state battery (SSB) for EV production. It claims that its battery has double the density of a typical lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, can fully charge in five minutes, has a practically unlimited lifespan, is not affected by heat and cold (it’s good for anywhere between -30°C and 100ºC) and contains no rare earths, precious metals or flammable liquid electrolytes. Donut Lab even says it will be cheaper to produce than conventional lithium-ion batteries! Sounds great, no??
IN CHARGING NEWS…
EV charging companies are now warning that they could push prices up due to the fact that their energy bills have risen by 38,579% since 2022! ChargeUK, the industry body that represents charging station operators, is flagging network charges that are set by Ofgem and levied to finance the maintenance and expansion of Britain’s electricity grid. The massive rise in these charges happened because the way that they were calculated changed in 2023.
IN TRAD CARMAKER NEWS…
There’s scepticism that VW can successfully transition to being a defence manufacturer, a possibility that has been mooted recently. Car manufacturing and defence equipment manufacturing is very different so bridging the skills gap could be difficult. However, defence companies need more capacity and carmakers need to pivot into something more profitable so surely joint ventures should be pursued, don’t you think??
IN MISCELLANEOUS NEWS...
IN REAL ESTATE TRENDS – there’s a social media account on X and Instagram called LondonPriceDrop which documents London homes that have had to cut selling prices dramatically. It tracks properties that have appeared on Rightmove and tells you just how much owners lose on a sale. There are some massive cuts on there. Rising interest rates, eye-watering stamp-duty and the increasing reticence of overseas buyers is severely denting London’s status. Some people are reporting losses of 40-50% on property sales! Meanwhile, the latest Bank of England stats showed that mortgage approvals increased at a faster pace than predicted before the war in the Middle East started but then Zoopla data showed that the number of people looking to move home is now 13% down from where it was last year because would-be buyers are waiting to see what will happen with the war. Nationwide statistics showed that UK house prices increased at their fastest rate in almost 18 months in March – but this doesn’t include the impact of the war. In COMMERCIAL PROPERTY, BlackRock is potentially looking to have a new HQ at HSBC’s Canary Wharf tower, which is good news for the area.
IN PHARMACEUTICALS NEWS – the Trump administration is on the verge of imposing tariffs of 100% on some medicines as part of a push to compel drugmakers to make more in the US. The new tariffs will cover companies that haven’t already struck deals with the White House. Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk are among the companies to have already struck deals. There was good news for Eli Lilly, which won FDA approval for the the pill version of its weight-loss drug, called Foundayo. Eli Lilly said that doctors will be able to write prescriptions for it straight away and shipments to patients will start on April 6th. This week, Eli Lilly also struck a $2bn deal with Insilico Medicine to sell a GLP-1 drug. Insilico uses AI for drug discovery and listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange in December.