Category: Protected – Weekly Themes

This is a collection of THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS that I thought may give you further inspiration to improve your commercial awareness knowledge. Of course you may completely disagree with what I say – and that’s all good! What is key, though, is that you must try to back your opinions with concrete facts, have an identifiable line of thought and reach actionable conclusions.

Feel free to use the themes identified below as a launch pad for your own research. What I’ve said here is not at all comprehensive – it’s more of a train of consciousness! However, you can use this to identify areas of interest that are specific to you and then expand on them whether this is for study purposes, job interview purposes or to provide food for thought for your broader career in general.

The long-awaited SMRs are not going to be ready until the early 2030s at the earliest. Also, we need to know whether/how the grid can cope with all this electricity. I just read that Britain’s wind farms were paid to switch off for 13% of the time they should have been generating last year. Can we cope with a major uptick in supply? The grid needs to be able to cope with electricity that is generated as well as being able to supply it efficiently.

We saw another company, Bullish, filing for an IPO this week. This made me think about how crypto continues to make its way to the mainstream. TMTG is making efforts in crypto, Trump’s administration is pushing for crypto supremacy and then, closer to home, there was IG’s announcement last week about giving retail investors access to crypto trading. When you consider that retirement ages are rising, we’re living longer, mortgages are getting longer repayment periods to take into account higher living costs and longer working lives and financial advisers are projecting our needs up till 100 it’s no wonder that state pensions are getting more are getting more difficult to finance. I think that there’s going to be an onus on everyone to take more responsibility about finding ways to finance their own retirement because the state is not going to be able to do it. Will they just concentrate on those who need the most help?? Where does our money need to be?

Duolingo faced a massive backlash when it said that it would be AI-first but then we saw Meta’s massive investment in Scale AI. There is an implication here that the “free” information on the internet right now is close to being absorbed as we hit “peak data” so are we getting to the stage that humans are needed to generate more content? Or will that only be until the advent of AGI?? What sort of guidelines should we keep in mind? Who will win from all this? I’m leaning towards it being those in AI infrastructure as opposed to those making the AI models themselves because I think they will be commoditised.

Although the whole set-up is a bit weird, building the world’s best and most accurate ID database at some point could be immensely valuable don’t you think? The nagging worry for me is that the cautionary tale of the failed 23andMe which also collected biometric data – and where’s that all going now, eh?? Surely governments would be interested in this info, no? Where does that leave privacy rights? Could Altman use this with his other interests perhaps?

Fintech company Wise said last week that it’s aiming on switching its primary listing to the NYSE – and this week US companies snapped up three UK tech companies. US investors have deeper pockets and more risk tolerance. There’s also more competition and a recent UBS study said that it doesn’t actually make that much of a difference as to where you’re listed in terms of performance.

Come back tomorrow – I’ll be updating this section!

This is a collection of THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS that I thought may give you further inspiration to improve your commercial awareness knowledge. Of course you may completely disagree with what I say – and that’s all good! What is key, though, is that you must try to back your opinions with concrete facts, have an identifiable line of thought and reach actionable conclusions.

Feel free to use the themes identified below as a launch pad for your own research. What I’ve said here is not at all comprehensive – it’s more of a train of consciousness! However, you can use this to identify areas of interest that are specific to you and then expand on them whether this is for study purposes, job interview purposes or to provide food for thought for your broader career in general.

OK so we all know that weapons, munitions and other other hardware companies are going to do well (and are already doing well) but I’d also argue that some homebuilders should do well from building, upgrading and maintaining military properties.

The recent blackouts in Spain have shown how renewables are currently falling short of expectations and electricity demand is only going to increase from current levels. Countries that had previously been very anti-nuclear (like Germany) are going back to nuclear and while nuclear plants that were going to be shut down/mothballed over the last few years got a new lease of life when Europe stopped using Russian gas in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine (remember France? When Macron originally came to power he promised to wean France OFF nuclear!). We saw this week that Meta just agreed a 20 year deal to buy output from an Illinois nuclear plant while Amazon, Google and Microsoft have all agreed deals with nuclear power operators.

The potential confluence of Trump’s mid-terms (which will be at the beginning of the year and will probably result in a lot of unhappy people ), China’s possible invasion of Taiwan (Europe won’t have had a chance to fully arm, despite all the commitments to arm now), Russia’s push in (and possibly beyond) Ukraine (same reason as China) and there are also some major British and NATO military exercises in the offing in 2027. Companies are now preparing for big disruptions in supply chains (important to have alternatives to China because we’ll have to cut relations if they invade Taiwan) and personnel (they might be called up to fight).

The last time we saw 100% mortgages (i.e. no deposit) was just before the financial crisis of 2008. Since then we’ve seen all sorts of rules imposed on lending, affordability checks etc. but now we’re in a position where there’s tons of pent-up demand for property, insufficient supply and increased appetite from banks etc. wanting to lend. 100% was inevitable – but is it sustainable for the longer term?

Get the popcorn – this is shaping up to be an epic battle of the billionaires and it’s all going to be played out on X and Truth Social! The problem is that Musk’s actions have alienated many markets outside the US (just see the latest figures for Tesla’s sales!) – and now he’s making life difficult for his companies within the US as well. Is this all part of some kind of elaborate plan to re-establish his street cred, orchestrated WWE-style by education secretary Linda McMahon??

It’s already put together some measures to make listing in London less onerous. You could argue that it’s been on the end of a bit of bad luck in terms of losing companies that had become increasingly US-focused over the years either via acquisition or by design (e.g. Flutter’s opportunities being way better in the US because of the gradual legalisation of sports betting). However, perhaps there are going to be opportunities emerging in London as the “new” rules are increasingly understood, everyone gets spooked by Trump & chums across the Pond and companies increasingly seek out more stable markets. What is needed now is a UK company to boast about going state-side and their investors’ deep pools of cash and fail miserably. The LSE must be praying for a massive failure like Cazoo whose founder was pretty dismissive about crusty old fund managers in the UK when he swanned off to New York only to be humiliated a few years later because his business was, in fact, pants. Once they can say a few “I told you so’s” then they might be back in business.

This is a collection of THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS that I thought may give you further inspiration to improve your commercial awareness knowledge. Of course you may completely disagree with what I say – and that’s all good! What is key, though, is that you must try to back your opinions with concrete facts, have an identifiable line of thought and reach actionable conclusions.

Feel free to use the themes identified below as a launch pad for your own research. What I’ve said here is not at all comprehensive – it’s more of a train of consciousness! However, you can use this to identify areas of interest that are specific to you and then expand on them whether this is for study purposes, job interview purposes or to provide food for thought for your broader career in general.

It might embolden the EU to the extent that it they will delay a quick deal (or make quite a narrow one). The fact that the US Court of International Trade decided that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), passed during the cold war to deal with national security matters, should NOT be used to address balance of trade issues is interesting but there are various work-arounds for this. It all took a bit of a turn when, the following day, the US Court of Appeals granted the government a temporary reprieve to decide whether or not this decision should stand. Ultimately, I think that Trump will get what he wants because if it goes as far as the Supreme Court he should be OK because he appointed the judges there. On the one hand, EU negotiators may decide that Trump will win through anyway and so they could pre-empt it and negotiate an agreement or they could perhaps negotiate a partial agreement, with more details to be filled in later when this legal issue is sorted.

Well at the moment, I would have thought that UK universities in particular are going to benefit because they have a good reputation generally and all the courses are obviously going to be in English. One fly in the ointment here, though, is the potential change in eligibility for “indefinite leave to remain” from five years to ten years but I guess many would-be students won’t be thinking that far ahead! French business schools and universities are getting together to co-ordinate action to attract students who are getting caught in the Trump net. Perhaps universities in other English-speaking countries will do well as well. For the moment, UK education establishments haven’t got their act together and aren’t providing a decent, co-ordinated and targeted offering at the time of writing. If they don’t get their act together they will lose out – and given the falling numbers of overseas students, this would be a real shame.

Maybe he can somehow split the better bits of the business (powerwall, self-driving tech, software) out and spin them off – or could he just go all-in on driverless and become the big player in this area? Who is furthest ahead in this space? It just seems to me that Tesla is a spent force in terms of actual car development APART from driverless. I’d say better to pivot now than die a slow death.

So we’ve been seeing more developments in crypto recently as we’ve observed Trump evolving from a crypto-sceptic to a fully-fledged crypto-phile. His family’s involved now in all sorts of ways and it seems that (at least some of) his fortune is now tied to it. Thus far I would have thought that the people who have benefited the most from this are the Trumps, the early adopters and the ones who’ve bought big into the memecoins etc. at the right time. However, it seems to me that ordinary people will be looking at the gains and get swept up in all the hype and put some money in, particularly if he tells them to! If Trump saw the stock market as a gauge of his popularity in Trump 1.0, maybe he’ll start to use bitcoin or memecoins as his gauge this time around because I would argue that he has more chance of controlling this than he will the S&P/NASDAQ etc.

Law firms keep banging on about using AI these days. There’s lots of talk about AI being able to do the tedious parts of the job that bored many a junior lawyer or paralegal to tears. Given that law firms charge by the hour, clients are starting to wonder when all that AI usage is going to translate into lower bills! There was an interesting example of where BT specifically asked law firms that were tendering for business about where and how they were using AI and how much that would impact the bill at the end of it! I think that many clients will be keen to know this – but I think that law firms are always going to have the buffer of “well we have to include the cost of training our AI model as well”, although I guess that depends if the firm in question is using an off-the-shelf or bespoke solution. Will this mean that smaller law firms will be able to punch above their weight because they won’t need legions of juniors? I think that the billable hour will be around for a while yet. It seems to me that bosses like it because it’s a tangible way of measuring performance but hated by (at least some!) employees because it makes them account for their time in six minute increments…

Archie Norman was brought in at the end of last year to turn this supermarket around. After years of being in the wilderness after a pair of brothers who ran garages and a PE firm bought it for a fat price, its fortunes have slid and it’s lost its meaning. Norman was brought in to stem the tide and put Asda’s fortunes back on track because he did it before, albeit a quarter of a century ago. The most recent Kantar figures show that it was the only supermarket to lose market share while the likes of Aldi and Lidl have continued to eat its lunch. I think that Asda is a disaster and the recent reintroduction of “rollback” (i.e. lower prices) is old hat and shows no imagination. Asda is in dire need of a root-and-branch refresh in terms of format and offering. It needs to find its “voice” because its old position of being cheap-and-cheerful has been swiped by the German discounters. If cutting prices is all Norman has got, he needs to either a) retire or b) bring someone on who can do this. If not, I think that Asda’s fate will be terminal…

This is a collection of THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS that I thought may give you further inspiration to improve your commercial awareness knowledge. Of course you may completely disagree with what I say – and that’s all good! What is key, though, is that you must try to back your opinions with concrete facts, have an identifiable line of thought and reach actionable conclusions.

Feel free to use the themes identified below as a launch pad for your own research. What I’ve said here is not at all comprehensive – it’s more of a train of consciousness! However, you can use this to identify areas of interest that are specific to you and then expand on them whether this is for study purposes, job interview purposes or to provide food for thought for your broader career in general.

It seems to me like he’s got everyone fearing the worst and so when he announces trade agreements, they SHOULD give markets a bit of a boost. Should he announce them all at the same time or drip feed them? Also, how will conflicts be avoided (e.g. does a trade deal with UK but doesn’t want the UK to strike a deal with China. Will this negate the benefits of a UK/US deal?). FWIW, it seems to me that his masterplan may be about shocking the world and showing them the “worst-case-scenario” and then doing bilateral deals with individual countries who, having seen what can happen, scramble over themselves to get to the negotiation table. By doing it this way, he gives himself ultimate wiggle room whereas if he does some kind of multilateral deal it will take longer to negotiate and be less flexible (from his point of view). Also, negotiations will arguably be quicker – and all of this makes him look like a hero, someone who gets things done and someone who does what they set out to do. The problem is that America’s lost the world’s trust in the process and so countries will a) not 100% believe the deal will be robust and b) continue to try to minimise exposure to the US

The solar panel car parks idea sounds great, but given we’re trying not to buy Chinese how much more is it going to cost us? Trump is already hammering in the final nails in the coffin of wind power in the US and now the UK government has lifted restrictions to onshore power generation you do wonder whether offshore is going to lose momentum. Either way, we’re still going to have to make sure we improve energy storage to ensure consistent power supplies.

How much of residential conveyancing is vulnerable here realistically, for example? I would have thought that law firms are generally going to want to see it fail but consumers are going to want to see it succeed! I am assuming that a more realistic scenario in future is going to be human run, AI assisted. However, given that many lawyers charge by the hour, will this change the fee model?

What about our movie/TV industry? AMC Entertainment’s bigger-than-expected loss just highlights ongoing difficulties in the movie industry. It seems that there are issues throughout the entire thing from production to distribution to the end customers being able to afford to go to cinemas. The fact that AMC’s box office Q1 results were the lowest they’d had since 1996 (excluding the Covid years) is not a good signal – particularly if US consumers are yet to feel the full force of Trump’s tariffs on their discretionary spending power.

Apple looking around at alternatives to Google has got to hurt. Also it’s interesting to see the success of Applovin because this highlights the success of a company that helps companies target mobile gamers. Presumably this “skill” could be transferred elsewhere. Targeted advertising is defo the way forward – particularly as ad spend appears to be weakening (just look at S4’s results, for example).

Britons are flocking to the US because of weaker dollar and better deals on accommodation because Canadians and Europeans are giving it a swerve. This is in stark contrast to what the hotel companies and US airlines are saying. Is the US pessimism overdone?

This is a collection of THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS that I thought may give you further inspiration to improve your commercial awareness knowledge. Of course you may completely disagree with what I say – and that’s all good! What is key, though, is that you must try to back your opinions with concrete facts, have an identifiable line of thought and reach actionable conclusions.

Feel free to use the themes identified below as a launch pad for your own research. What I’ve said here is not at all comprehensive – it’s more of a train of consciousness! However, you can use this to identify areas of interest that are specific to you and then expand on them whether this is for study purposes, job interview purposes or to provide food for thought for your broader career in general.

Amazon’s Jeff Bezos got a bit of a slap this week for daring to think about highlighting how much of everyone’s order was down to Trump’s tariffs. Trump blew his top, Leavitt did a hatchet job but then it all calmed down when Bezos said that it had only been considered for Amazon Haul – and even then they ditched the idea. E-tailers who source from China are going to have a nightmare in terms of the tariffs eating their margins (sometimes eating them whole!) but I think that Amazon could potentially fare better as it has huge amounts of data stretching back decades and may potentially be able to outperform rivals by just tweaking its algorithm to emphasise non-China sourced products. Also, Amazon has a much more diversified business model than rivals who may only have retail.

Not necessarily. I think that international expansion is suddenly going to be way more difficult, though, because one of the main attractions of Shein is price. Once that’s gone, people may be less keen and look elsewhere. Shein’s already jacked up prices by 377% in the US and it’s looking to restructure there. Meanwhile, over in the UK, Shein has decided not to extend the contracts with two financial PR firms that it was working with on the potential IPO. The company needs a major rethink about its international strategy and perhaps whether to put more emphasis on its domestic market.

The first part of this question is quite tricky because Canada and the US are so very intertwined. At the moment, about 75% of Canada’s exports go to the US so unpicking all this is going to be a nightmare. Canadians have reacted strongly against Trump – and this is what has led to Carney The Rookie Politician becoming PM. I would have thought that he’s going to have to try to play nice in the immediate future because the relationship runs so deep but ultimately it might make sense for Carney to extricate his country from America’s grip. You would have thought that Carney’s relationship with the UK and the fact that we’re Canada’s third biggest trading partner may mean that Canada could be our new transatlantic BFF, but that’s going to take time to kick in properly.

Greggs has cult-like status in the UK. As bakeries stand, it’s decent enough, does quite a variety of (mostly unhealthy!) food and sells it at very reasonable prices. I think that it is perfectly adequate for the UK but I just don’t see it travelling well internationally. It pains me to see companies who do well here expanding abroad seemingly for the sake of it (for example, supermarkets like Sainsbury’s and Tesco have done it in the past with varying degrees of success). In my experience, international expansion often seems to happen when management have run out of ideas of how to operate effectively in a mature, competitive domestic market and they want to see more exciting growth rates to justify higher bonuses if it goes right. Rightly or wrongly, our cuisine is not world-renowned and I would have thought that the French, for instance, would laugh at the prospect of having a local Greggs. That being said, Pret a Manger has seen pretty reasonably success with its international expansion to 19 countries with the humble sarnie, so I guess it is possible!

I think that the FT article on brands targeting AI chatbots as user behaviour evolves away from traditional search engines is fascinating! Whereas until now companies like Alphabet have managed to make good money by bumping companies up their search rankings if they pay up, this may be more difficult to do with AI chatbots. Advertisers are now monitoring how much they come up and I’m sure that the chatbot makers will be keen to advise on how they can appear more frequently. I think that this really could be the end of traditional SEO as this looks like a proper behavioural shift.

There were rumours this week that the board of Tesla had, presumably in their frustration, decided to sounds parties out for potentially having a new CEO to replace Musk – but it was swiftly denied. Given that Tesla’s share price has tanked and that association with Musk is getting increasingly toxic by the day, drastic action is clearly needed. Having Musk as the head honcho is now both a blessing and a curse – and the fact that he is very much the figurehead of such a collection of successful and cutting-edge tech companies means that he will be open to criticism. FWIW, I think that he needs proper CEOs for Tesla, xAI and X that he can rely on enough to let him take more of a chairman/strategic type role. That way, he can still run things but he only gets associated with the companies when needed.

This is a collection of THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS that I thought may give you further inspiration to improve your commercial awareness knowledge. Of course you may completely disagree with what I say – and that’s all good! What is key, though, is that you must try to back your opinions with concrete facts, have an identifiable line of thought and reach actionable conclusions.

Feel free to use the themes identified below as a launch pad for your own research. What I’ve said here is not at all comprehensive – it’s more of a train of consciousness! However, you can use this to identify areas of interest that are specific to you and then expand on them whether this is for study purposes, job interview purposes or to provide food for thought for your broader career in general.

There’s no shortage of information on which countries, industries and companies are going to suffer from the tariffs – but there are always winners and losers in the direst of circumstances. So what are the big business opportunities under the tax regime so far? Who benefits, for how long and why? Examples I’ve seen this week include warehouses in Canada (where third party sellers are stockpiling in the hope of a tariff retreat by Trump), Airbus (because China’s not taking Boeing’s planes), Air India (also because China’s not taking its planes, so surely they should be able to negotiate a nice deal!), Swiss ski villages (because nervous rich Americans want to buy assets outside the US “just in case”), cheaper retailers (like TK Maxx) because of less competition from Shein and Temu and because consumers are going to be squeezed.

It’s been known for a long time that Chinese solar panel makers have basically crushed any non-Chinese competition. The latest intervention appears to be akin to shutting the barn door after the horse has not only bolted but when it has gone off into the horizon, met another horse, fallen in love, had foals, they’ve gone to uni, got married etc. Still, I guess that Trump’s latest tariff threats here are sending out a message.

The problem is that this is going to be tricky for the construction industry because it means that construction costs are going to rise! Which non-Chinese solar panel makers are still standing? Are there enough to consolidate? If so, there could be some interesting M&A opportunities…

There’s a lot of chat about Elon Musk doing less DOGE and more Tesla – and that’s getting some investors a bit excited. The thing is that Tesla’s got an aging line-up, EVs aren’t exactly Trump’s favourite thing, European sales have been decimated by Musk’s political zeal and local rivals are kicking Tesla’s &ss in China. What’s a billionaire to do??

I think he should give more time to SpaceX (satellites), xAI (because it really seems to be on a roll now) and X (because he can use this platform for propaganda/pushing his own agenda/publicity generally). Maybe he could sell a big chunk of Tesla to a traditional rival, like VW for instance, where they would be able to get access to his superior tech and Tesla would be able to get access to VW’s superior production facilities and supply chains. It seems to me that all the billions of dollars he’s put into battery tech over the years is being superseded by the likes of CATL and Tesla (see below). At least now he’ll still be able to get a decent price whereas I’d argue that Tesla could continue to fall in value as Musk’s toxicity could further dent the brand.

Ralph and I talk about this on the Weekly podcast HERE 🎙️

It seems to me that Trump is gradually putting together a crypto framework that could potentially be highly lucrative for himself and his supporters. Who’s made money so far? His memecoin got another boost from promises that the top holders will get an invitation to a private event and the top top holders will get an even more personalised experience! This feels very strange to me because it feels like a very expensive way of getting a tour of the White House 🤣. Who can benefit from this, though – can exchanges benefit? Can the likes of Revolut benefit given how well it’s done out of crypto trading??

Intel used to rein supreme in the chip world – but its expansion plans lay in tatters and it’s getting spanked by rival Nvidia because it’s basically not making the right chips. Making the right ones isn’t going to be an overnight thing either. Its former CEO got booted already, so the new guy has probably got a bit of a grace period but it won’t be too long.

CATL’s latest EV battery discovery could change the whole EV game. What with BYD announcing a battery that charges in 5 mins last week this could change EVERYTHING! No more range anxiety, no more need for expensive charging networks – you could just put chargers in existing garages. No more worries about installing on-street public chargers etc. As I’ve said before, battery technology advancement is bound to be faster than charging network expansion so this should be excellent news for EV sales, don’t you think??

Ralph and I talk about this on the Weekly podcast HERE 🎙️

This is a collection of THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS that I thought may give you further inspiration to improve your commercial awareness knowledge. Of course you may completely disagree with what I say – and that’s all good! What is key, though, is that you must try to back your opinions with concrete facts, have an identifiable line of thought and reach actionable conclusions.

Feel free to use the themes identified below as a launch pad for your own research. What I’ve said here is not at all comprehensive – it’s more of a train of consciousness! However, you can use this to identify areas of interest that are specific to you and then expand on them whether this is for study purposes, job interview purposes or to provide food for thought for your broader career in general.

South Korea is looking very precarious at the moment. President Yoon Suk Yeol’s decision to impose martial law was highly controversial but, in the end, it only lasted for about six hours! It’s ironic that, in his previous role as chief prosecutor under presidential predecessor Moon Jae-in he oversaw the imprisonment of both former president Park Geun-hye and Lee Jae-yong, the former chair of Samsung over a bribery scandal that led to Park’s impeachment in 2017. Well Yoon Suk Yeol managed to survive impeachment for now but you have to wonder how he can rule long term given this colossal error of judgment.

Given how precarious the president’s position is right now and the obvious sensitivities regarding North Korea (he portrayed opposition figures as being “pro-North, anti-state forces” and look where that got him!) and its new involvement in the Ukraine war you would have thought that, from China’s point of view, this is as good a time as any to launch an attack on Taiwan. Biden’s on the way out, Trump hasn’t taken office yet, Europe is distracted by Ukraine and everyone’s distracted by the Middle East while Japan’s political situation is also very tricky at the moment.

Is it more or less likely though? I’d say that China has its own domestic problems to deal with currently and it will presumably want to have some time to announce and at least start to implement the stimulus package that everyone think’s they’re about to. Having that threat of invading Taiwan in the president’s back pocket could be a useful negotiation tactic to rein in Trump’s sanction ambitions (or at least take some of the edge off). FWIW, I think that China will either invade Taiwan if Chinese people tire of the economic malaise (because a war could galvanise and distract them) or if China is actually crushing it in terms of the economy because the president could use success to whip up nationalistic frenzy. However, I think that the latter is highly unlikely.

What are the commercial implications though?

Well I don’t think defence spending is going to slow down any time soon! I do wonder, though, whether this will slow investment in the region (obviously Taiwan, but perhaps in the region as a whole while everyone waits to see what China does). If that happens, where will it go? Perhaps India? Perhaps Vietnam (although Vietnam might prefer to fly under the radar so as not to provoke the Americans, with whom it is currently running a trade surplus)? Probably not South Korea, though, given the situation at the moment!

I don’t think so. Retailers and those in hospitality are hugely concerned about the impact of NICs and minimum wage hikes on what they’ll be charging to customers. Customers have already had to absorb a lot of extra costs over the last few years and there’s a limit to how much more they can absorb! Any sector that has reasonable exposure to a lower paid workforce will be particularly exposed.

Recent surveys have shown that businesses in particular are, ironically, not confident about the prospects for the broader economy, but they are getting more confident about their own. I say this is ironic because if everyone is confident about their own business, then that means that the economy will actually do quite well!

I would also suggest that the UK is likely to make progress in the EU because we have a new regime with no Brexit baggage, the EU is in danger of splintering as two of its biggest constituents (France and Germany) are in all sorts of bother at the moment which means that it’s going to be more likely to do deals with the UK, where the government is more aligned with its own values.

Although bitcoin has shot up by 50% since Trump got into power, the fact that Trump has his own interest in the cryptocurrency (World Liberty Financial), that he’s nominated a fan of crypo (David Sacks) to replace the arch-enemy of crypto (Gary Gensler) as head of the SEC in addition to his bromance with Musk, crypto fan and doge overlord, you would have thought that this would be very difficult to bet against.

I’m still not really all that convinced about bitcoin fundamentals but the fact that you’ve got a government with a very strong mandate, four years of Trump stretching ahead of us and very clear personal interests in bitcoin doing well, then I don’t see any real bumps in the road unless some massive scandal emerges and crypto falls through the floor. However, in order for it to get real legitimacy longer term, it must be regulated.

So is now too late? I think not. OK, so you’re possibly not going to get the heroic returns that your mate down the pub boasted about when he bought bitcoin at $500 or something but you are likely to get something. Apple is a great example of a stock that faced perennial concerns of this nature – and that thing has just grown and grown! I don’t like bitcoin, there’s a lot of dodginess about it, but at the end of the day there are perhaps more reasons to buy it than not.

BTW, this is opinion – NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I don’t own any BTW, but I am thinking about it!

China has won the war for EV batteries. It looks like it could win the war for EVs as well if the incumbents’ fortunes don’t turn around soon!

European, American and Japanese makers are losing ground in the Chinese market, the biggest car market in the world. They are also losing ground in their own markets as customers who have been getting through the cost-of-living crisis just don’t feel inclined to buy EVs that are expensive to buy, will depreciate like crazy and will give them range anxiety.

That being said, it’s not a case of whether EVs are coming, it’s a case of when! The ZEV mandate is an example of a regulatory framework that charts a very real path towards the complete adoption of EVs. So what can be done now to get people buying?

Firstly, the cost of EVs need to come down. How do you do that? Well the battery represents about 40% of the cost of the car. Battery prices had been expected to trend down over time, but haven’t quite behaved like that. Supply chains need to improve and manufacturing costs need to come down. This is already occurring with the use of new materials, shared vehicle platforms and, in some cases, joint ventures between different manufacturers.

Secondly, something needs to be done about depreciation. I think that this is all about the battery as batteries degrade over time (or at least there is the perception that they do in a meaningful way). Why not take a leaf out of NIO’s book and use swappable batteries? That way, if a battery has degraded too much, it can be swapped, recycled and eventually be put back into circulation. There was a lot of resistance to this, with Tesla being particularly vocal about it – but although the company said it was for technical reasons, I think that they didn’t want it to work because they’d poured tens of billions of dollars into existing battery tech that they didn’t want to see that going down the drain. At some point, I think that batteries will be commoditised and be very cheap – but until that day comes, I think they will be the major driver of depreciation.

Thirdly, range anxiety needs to be cured. I think that this won’t be too far away what with charging networks improving all the time while advances in new battery technology continue to add to the distance these cars can go on a single charge whilst also cutting charging times. Still, we are not there yet.

But maybe ownership has to change. Maybe, in order to avoid the sting of depreciation, we need to stop owning cars and start hiring them? Volvo already offers this option and Porsche has done this in the past in some countries. If that is the case, then there is no massive initial outlay and depreciation isn’t a problem because you don’t actually own the underlying asset.

In conclusion, if governments want to encourage EV ownership asap, they will need to provide more incentives and kickbacks. This will work in the short term, but it is not a long term solution as it will become an increasing burden on the state. However, something needs to be done otherwise there will be no car manufacturing industry left outside China…

There’s a lot of talk about advanced chips in particular. 90% of the world’s advanced chips are made in Taiwan – and Taiwan’s situation regarding China continues to look somewhat precarious (something else I’ve mentioned above!).

Moves have been made to spread the production elsewhere, but this isn’t something that one can change overnight.

I would expect house prices to go bananas in the first quarter of next year until the stamp duty deadline in April when the threshold for paying stamp duty goes back up. Once that happens…