This is an amalgamation of the “best bits” of the daily weekday newsletter/blog woven together to form a concise and coherent view on the things that matter in the commercial and economic news of the week.
THE COLOURED HIGHLIGHT REFERS TO THE EDITION WHERE THE STORY APPEARED IN WATSON’S DAILY. Clicking on the day will take you to the appropriate edition of Watson’s Daily.
IN BIG PICTURE NEWS...
Iran was attacked, the world reacted and bitcoin surged
IN WAR NEWS…
WHAT HAPPENED – it all kicked off over the weekend as the US and Israel attacked Iran. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the weekend along with several senior officials. At the beginning of the week Trump said that he wouldn’t take part in rebuilding the nation but by the end of the week he said that he wanted to be “involved” in choosing the new leader, “like with Delcy [Rodriguez] in Venezuela”.
Iran executed Khamenei’s retaliation plan by bombing other countries in the region to ratchet up the pressure to make Trump stop. The attacks were hard on Iranians but expats and holiday-makers in Dubai tried to get out (and those who had booked to go to Dubai cancelled en masse) as the Gulf’s reputation as an area of stability in an otherwise volatile Middle East was now under attack.
WHAT WAS THE INTERNATIONAL REACTION? China was angered by the attack, which is not surprising given that it imports up to 75% of its oil. It will now have to find alternative sources (like Russia) – but at the same time as everyone else! Starmer initially refused to co-operate with the US and allow the use of its airbases which annoyed Trump – but he soon relented.
Airlines are having to cope with way more disruptions than have occurred in previous Middle East conflicts and Europe-to-Asia travel is getting more difficult because of the narrow corridor that planes can now fly in because of all the bombing.
WHAT’S THE GLOBAL IMPACT? Oil prices shot up because the Strait of Hormuz suddenly got very dangerous – which is potentially great news for Russia because it’s bound to get more orders for its oil. It will be able to sell more of it – and at inflated prices. The Strait is the world’s most important oil trade route and insurers have been cancelling policies covering ships moving through that chokepoint. Trump offered to protect shipping going through the Strait but insurance costs still boomed by a factor of 12. The US won’t be immune either because Trump has not replenished his Strategic Petroleum Reserve and US shale producers have said that they can’t make up the shortfall. Asia’s big manufacturing economies are very vulnerable because they import a lot of oil.
Gas prices also rose as supplies from Qatar got knocked out – and the LNG price spike could be more problematic than the higher oil price because there aren’t so many strategic reserves of gas.
WHAT IMPACT WILL THIS HAVE ON HOUSEHOLD FINANCES? US petrol prices have already surged and a higher-for-longer oil price will potentially push inflation higher, which is bad news for the cost-of-living.
IN DEFENCE NEWS…
France offered to move some of its nuclear deterrent to other allied European countries for the first time as part of efforts to deepen co-operation. This is “the most important revision to France’s nuclear doctrine in a generation” as it is a major step forward for Europe to take responsibility for its own defence.
IN TRUMP THINGS…
TRUMP vs AI – Anthropic got booted out of Pentagon contracts for not being willing to bend to let the government do whatever it wanted with its tech and was swiftly replaced by OpenAI, which then hastily negotiated some contract alterations that meant that “the AI system shall not be intentionally used for domestic surveillance of US persons and nationals”. Anthropic said it would sue the Trump administration labelling it a supply chain risk – although it said that this designation won’t have much of an impact on its business – but it kept negotiations going with the government anyway.
TRUMP vs LAWYERS – the government initially dropped its appeal to enforce punitive executive orders on the likes of Jenner & Block, Perkins Coie, WilmerHale and Susman Godfrey who managed to successfully challenge Trump on the executive orders he slapped on the top law firms early on in this term’s presidency. However, the Department of Justice changed its mind and is appealing again. At the end of the week, a group of twenty-four US states then filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration following the recent Supreme Court decision outlawing Trump’s tariffs.
TRUMP vs ALLIES – Trump threatened to cut trade with “terrible” Spain because it didn’t let the US use Spanish military bases to attack Iran.
TRUMP vs IMMIGRATION – the president fired controversial homeland security secretary Kristi Noem, who presided over the whole Minnesota nightmare has been booted. Someone clearly had to take the fall for the handling of mass deportations.
TRUMP THE SAVIOUR – Trump told AI companies that they needed “PR” help to address rising resistance against the building of datacentres for AI but given that they don’t generate many jobs and suck up resources, he needs to get involved in the PR otherwise he’s going to suffer come the midterms at the end of the year.
IN REGIONAL/COUNTRY NEWS…
IN ASIA
CHINA – the country set its lowest GDP target for the year of 4.5-5%, its lowest range since the 1990s! This was blamed on the rise of geopolitical risks, slowing global economic momentum, the stubbornly difficult domestic property market and weak household sentiment.
IN EUROPE
The European Commission offered to include some of its “like-minded” partners in its “Made in Europe” manufacturing targets in order to crowd out competition from China. Nissan said that it would shut its Sunderland plant down if it’s not fully included in this.
IN THE UK – the OBR warned that the UK economy could suffer a “very significant” hit from the Iran war and the Resolution Foundation said that the war “could wipe out growth in UK living standards”. Ministers are thought to be discussing ways of minimising the impact of rising energy prices on household bills.
Other than that, the chancellor announced a largely uneventful Spring Statement, but all the forecasts will surely be wrong given that the Iran war only just started. Meanwhile, there was a surprise jump in UK grocery price inflation, which isn’t great for consumers.
IN CRYPTO…
Bitcoin and crypto stocks rallied a bit on Trump making supportive noises on Truth Social. Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini, Bullish, Circle, Strategy and Galaxy all put in strong performances as a result.
IN INVESTMENT & BUSINESS TRENDS NEWS...
IN INVESTMENT NEWS/TRENDS…
HALO – AI-resistant HALO (Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence) stocks are driving the UK and EU markets to record levels. Goldman Sachs classifies them as ones that have both substantial physical capital and evergreen economic relevance.
PRIVATE CREDIT – retail investors continue to shun private credit funds after Blue Owl stopped redemptions recently and Blue Owl’s share price has now fallen below its 2021 listing price. Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund saw big outflows in Q1 and the AI/tech sell-off is is hitting private credit badly because they invested heavily into it.
IPOs – Loveholidays looks like it’s going to postpone its IPO because of the war in Iran. It was supposed to be the London Stock Exchange’s first big listing of 2026.
M&A – The latest numbers from the ONS showed that the total value of foreign takeovers of British companies hit its highest level for four years in the final quarter of 2025, mainly thanks to Doordash buying Deliveroo, KKR buying Spectris and Athora Holding buying Pension Insurance Corporation Group.
All3Media Banijay Entertainment are going to merge to form an $8bn TV production group that will generate about €4.4bn a year in revenues and over €690bn in earnings.
BrewDog’s retail investors, who invested over £75m in BrewDog via crowdfunding between 2009 and 2021, are going to get zero after US brewery and cannabis producer Tilray struck a £33m deal to buy all of BrewDog’s brands. Ouch.
IN BUSINESS NEWS/TRENDS…
PREDICTION MARKETS – Trump insiders are thought to be “profiting from the war” as there were some questionable trading patterns very close to the US strike in Iran. I think that this kind of betting is sooooo wide open to abuse because you can bet on so many things that are difficult to monitor – but it continues to gain momentum! DraftKings is trying to fight back by integrating its prediction markets platform into its core app but British gambling companies, such as Flutter, are still reeling from the onslaught of Polymarket and Kalshi.
IN SENTIMENT – the latest IoD survey showed that executives are feeling pretty downbeat thanks to ongoing higher employment costs, a worsening late payments crisis and increased geopolitical volatility. Separately, research from accountancy firm Lubbock Fine showed that small businesses are increasingly trying to cut their growth in order to stay under the £90,000 VAT threshold. In order to do this, some SMEs are cutting opening hours, closing on quiet days or shifting to a four-day week. Some are engaging in “business splitting” where owners separate operations into different entities to cut turnover. Not great for economic growth!
IN EMPLOYMENT, CONSUMER & RETAIL NEWS...
IN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS…
IN SOUTH KOREA – the country is letting in rising numbers of foreign low-skilled workers – many of whom come from Bangladesh or the Philippines – due to a shrinking work population and the world’s lowest fertility rate.
IN AMERICA – Morgan Stanley is going to cut around 3% of its workforce across investment banking, trading, wealth management and investment management businesses. This is despite the bank reporting record annual revenues that were up a healthy 14% versus the previous year. AI wasn’t mentioned here and I’d say that investment banks tend to do this from time to time to keep everyone on their toes…
IN THE UK – Britain’s unemployment rate is now worse than Italy’s for only the second time in thirty years! Data from the Bank of England says that that businesses have had their longest streak of job cuts since the pandemic and this trend seemed to be echoed by recruitment firm PageGroup which saw its share price tank by 20% on news that it had seen a 60% fall in profits! The company blamed the “tougher” trading conditions in the UK and observed that companies in Britain were “deferring hiring decisions and candidates [were] cautious about accepting offers”. Another study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies pointed out that employers face a 40% rise in costs under the government’s proposals to ditch the youth rate of the minimum wage. The government is against “discriminatory age bands” but the fact of the matter is that doing this is going to mean that employers won’t employ those extra people at a time where jobs are getting increasingly scarce.
IN CONSUMER TRENDS…
IN JAPAN – Japanese retailers like Uniqlo, Muji and Don Quijote are trying to adapt to not having Chinese visitors as they’ve kept away from Japan ever since PM Takaichi made some blunt remarks a few months ago about how Japan would react if China invaded Taiwan (Japan would treat an attack on Taiwan as an attack on Japan).
IN THE UK – the latest BRC figures showed that shop prices slowed down thanks to discounting in fashion, health and beauty. This is good news for the consumer for now, but the Iran war could potentially push global inflation up again.
IN RETAIL NEWS…
John Lewis is thinking about buying back some of its supermarkets with its £1.5bn cash pile. This sounds like a confident move to me and reflects a wider turnaround at the company!
Modella Capital, the private equity firm that bought WH Smith’s high street business (now called TG Jones) is looking at shutting down 80 stores. It’s spent £14m on refurbishing the chain since it bought it last year. FWIW, I think that £14m is a paltry sum, renaming the chain TG Jones shows a complete lack of care (have you seen the corporate BS explanation behind the naming 🤣?!?) – which suggests to me that the whole deal was all about asset stripping and selling off the stores right from the off.
IN CASUAL DINING NEWS…
Greggs saw profits slump and sales slow down against the backdrop of a “challenging” market with squeezes on disposable income and fragile consumer confidence.
IN TECH NEWS & MEDIA NEWS...
IN TECH NEWS…
IN AI – DeepSeek was due to release its long-awaited V4 “multimodal” model this week. It will be able to generate pictures, videos and text. I didn’t hear anything subsequent to this, however!
IN CHIPS – Nvidia has now stopped production of chips intended for the Chinese market – the H200 chips – and has instead reallocated manufacturing capacity at TSMC to making the next-gen Vera Rubin hardware.
IN MEDIA NEWS…
IN AUTOMOTIVE NEWS...
IN AUTOMOTIVE NEWS…
According to the latest figures from the SMMT, new car registrations for February were the highest in over 20 years but the take-up of EVs was less resounding. The market share of new EVs contracted for the second month in a row.
IN EV NEWS – BYD’s February sales fell at their steepest rate for five years as decent overseas sales could not make up for weakness in its domestic market. On the plus side, the company released a new EV battery that can be fully charged in nine minutes! The battery can get to 70% of capacity from 10% in five minutes and is the second-gen of what the company calls its “blade battery” that’s thinner and lighter than other batteries. BYD also released a new 1,500-kilowatt charging station, called a “flash charging station”.
IN DRIVERLESS NEWS – Admiral and Aviva, the UK’s two biggest car insurers, both reckon that the insurance market will continue to grow for the next 20-odd years despite the threat from autonomous vehicles.
IN REAL ESTATE NEWS...
Bank of England figures showed that UK mortgage approvals fell to their lowest level in 2 years while the latest Nationwide numbers show that UK house prices rose in February. We can’t really get excited though because we don’t yet know what effect the Iran war will have.
London landlords are evicting tenants ahead of the introduction of the new Renters Rights Act that will be implemented in May that will give renters protections against unjustified dispossessions.
Vacancy rates are continuing to climb in student accommodation thanks to cost-of-living pressures, increasingly burdensome student loans and tighter student visa policies. Unite Group, Britain’s biggest student housing provider, is suffering as a result.
Although Vistry painted a dour picture of the outlook and saw its share price hitting depths it’s not seen since the 2016 Brexit vote, things might be about to get better for UK home builders due to streamlined legislation, improved affordability and potential help for buyers to come from the government.
BANTER
I had two favourite videos of the week this week! I liked the one about the carbonara for the sheer inventiveness and the one with the dog that used The Force to retrieve a ball!