Tuesday 03/02/26

A world without nuclear arms control begins this week (Financial Times, Amy Mackinnon, Max Seddon and Ian Bott) highlights the rather sobering fact that the New Start treaty, which limits the number of operational missiles and warheads held by Russia and the US, expires this Thursday. This will bring to a close over fifty years of both sides attempting to restrict the size of their respective arsenals which all started in 1972 under Nixon and Brezhnev. The first big limit on nuclear weapons was enshrined in the 1991 Start I treaty which put in place an inspection regime. There was a bit of a lapse and then New Start was signed in 2010, it was extended in 2021 and then collapsed when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Apparently Putin has suggested that both sides voluntarily continue to stick to the current limits, Trump sounds like he’s thinking along similar lines – but he also wants to involve China in any related talks. We are living in challenging times.

Meanwhile, in news on the latest Trump initiatives, US to launch $12bn critical minerals stockpile to counter China’s dominance (Financial Times, Camilla Hodgson and Jamie Smyth) shows that the US government is launching a push to build up a critical minerals stockpile in order to counter Chinese dominance in this area and bolster domestic manufacturers in the event of any shortages. The US Export-Import Bank (Exim) will stump up $10bn in debt financing for the initiative, aka Project Vault. The remaining $2bn will come from private capital. Exim said that the push would “protect domestic manufacturers from supply shocks, support US production and processing of critical raw materials, and strengthen America’s critical minerals sector”. It will involve buying materials including rare earths, copper and lithium sourced from three trading companies – Traxys, Mercuria and Hartree Partners. * SO WHAT? * This sounds like a good idea but obviously it’s going to take time to make any kind of impact on Beijing’s current dominance. It’s a move in the right direction though…

I referred last week to companies that were doing well out of Trump’s immigration crackdown and How DHS Spent $35 Billion Since Trump Retook Office (Wall Street Journal, Shane Shifflett and Nate Rattner) emphasises the point as it turns out that the Department of Homeland Security’s spending on contracts boomed by 35% over the course of 2025, with tech supplier Anduril and construction firm Fisher Sand  & Gravel doing particularly well from border surveillance and Mexican border wall building respectively. Prison operators CoreCivic and GEO Group have also done well, as has deportation airline CSI Aviation. Palantir shares jump as US government and business contracts power growth (Financial Times, Rafe Rosner-Uddin) shows that the data intelligence group reported a hike in revenues for Q4 thanks to its US government contracts, powering it past Wall Street expectations. It’s also outlined a very punchy outlook. It was interesting to note that CEO Alex Karp observed that US companies are behind its growth and that there was “real hesitance” among European customers to use its tools. They showed a preference for using homegrown products instead. * SO WHAT? * These companies are, of course, benefiting hugely from Trump’s domestic initiatives. Given the general mood at the moment, it’s unsurprising that Europeans are reluctant to use Palantir – but although the company might find that regrettable, they are probably not all that worried given that there’s plenty of work going on in its own backyard.

In other Trump-related news, Tech billionaires fuel Donald Trump’s $429mn haul ahead of midterm elections (Financial Times, Joe Miller, Ian Hodgson and Paul Caruana Galizia) shows that Trump and chums have built up an enormous war chest ahead of the midterm elections this year. His funds dwarf what the Democratic Party has available! There’s no official word as to how he’ll deploy the money but it’s likely that he’ll pour it into the campaigns of his loyal allies. The

biggest contribution last year came from crypto exchange Crypto.com who donated $30m! It’s also interesting to note that Greg Brockman, co-founder and president of Open AI contributed $12.5m in December while his wife donated another $12.5m. Funny, that…

Then in Trump to slash India tariffs after Modi ‘agrees’ to stop buying Russian oil (Financial Times, Peter Wells, Andres Schipani, Krishn Kaushik and Peter Foster) we see that the president said that he’d cut tariffs on India to 18% after PM Modi “agreed” to cease purchases of Russian oil. The tariffs were at 25%. Back in August, Trump accused India, which imports around 90% of its crude oil, of funding Russia’s war machine and slapped an additional 25% tax on India on top of the 25% “reciprocal” tariff. This put India’s duties up to 50%, which was one of the highest rates in the world. Going the other way, Trump said that India would reduce its “tariffs and non-tariff barriers” on the US to zero and Trump said that the country would commit to buying over $500bn-worth of American goods. Analysts were immediately sceptical about this because India only bought $41.5bn worth of goods from the US last year! Still, it sounds good doesn’t it…

China is the main beneficiary of Trump’s Arctic antics (Financial Times, Isaac Kardon) is an interesting article which suggests that American aggression towards adversaries and allies alike is playing into China’s hands because China is becoming increasingly likely to fill the void that America is leaving behind it. It is increasingly being seen as the reasonably stable superpower and least bad option and the funny thing about Trump’s argument that he needs Greenland is that China can only get to the Arctic Ocean via Japanese and American waters and there aren’t any Chinese vessels anywhere near Greenland. China is emerging as the only realistic hedge for middle powers to protect their interests from a Trump invasion. I have to say that this is not a sentence I’d ever thought I’d use!

In Europe, France adopts budget after premier survives no-confidence vote (Financial Times, Leila Abboud and Ian Smith) shows that French PM Sébastien Lecornu managed to a) survive a no-confidence vote in the French parliament yesterday and b) enact a budget. This was impressive given the months of wrangling involved to get to this point! There were a lot of compromises made, but I think that the fact they got something through was a positive. France’s deficit for 2025 is thought to be about 5.4% and the measures in this budget are projected to bring it down to about 5%. Still, that’s a long way off the 3% target set by the EU. France hopes to hit this by 2029. * SO WHAT? * Macron’s government seems to lurch from one drama to another but this should buy him a bit of time.

In markets news, Oil tumbles as US-Iran tensions ease (Financial Times, Verity Ratcliffe) shows that oil prices fell sharply in trading yesterday as the prospect of a diplomatic solution had a calming effect and Gold and silver prices seesaw as FTSE 100 hits record high (The Guardian, Lauren Almeida) shows that precious metal prices also fell and subsequently recovered. Rollercoaster for gold creates havoc in Hatton Garden (Daily Telegraph, Matt Oliver, Eleanor Harmsworth and Chris Price) highlights what these wild swings mean for jewellers in London’s Hatton Garden. Over the last few weeks they’ve been inundated with secondhand jewellery as people tried to cash in on booming gold and silver prices. Somewhat amazingly, some retailers were melting down inventory to pay the bills! Gold is down by around 13% and silver by about 33% since the new Fed chairman was announced on Friday. Kevin Warsh is seen as a safe pair of hands and so that pared back some of the anxiety that was a powering force behind the rise in precious metals prices.

In American brands have lost their cool (Financial Times, Elisabeth Braw) we see that American brands are losing popularity and it’s starting to show. Last September, Levi’s identified “rising anti-Americanism as a consequence of the Trump tariffs and governmental policies” while McDonald’s CEO said that “the aura around America has dimmed a bit”. In polls taken last year, almost two-thirds of Germans said that they wanted to avoid US brands while 70% of Italians and 69% of Swiss and Austrians said that they would stop buying American brands altogether. Earlier this year, 83% of Swedes said that they weren’t buying US brands. Apps are popping up that identify brands linked to the country so consumers can boycott them, Estonia’s government is testing a US-free IT system and the French government announced last week that it would replace Zoom and Microsoft Teams with French video-conferencing tool Visio. * SO WHAT? * OK, so politicians are trying their best to play nice with Trump but they have broader issues at stake. Companies and individuals, on the other hand, don’t – so if they just stop buying American stuff there’s not much that Trump can do about it.

Back home, UK manufacturing growth accelerates as export orders rise (The Guardian, Tom Knowles) cites the latest manufacturing PMI survey which shows that British manufacturers had one of their best months since Labour came to power as activity in January rose thanks to new export orders increasing for the first time in four years. Perhaps even more amazingly, optimism about the year ahead hit its highest level since before the 2024 autumn budget! * SO WHAT? * It sounds like things are turning up in the UK! The combined manufacturing and services PMI for January presented the biggest upturn in business activity since April 2024 – and when you take that in combination with retail sales coming in better than expected in December and GDP rising unexpectedly in November, things may not actually be as gloomy as they seem!

In employment news, US jobs report delayed again amid government shutdown (The Guardian, Michael Sainato) shows that America’s closely-watched January 2026 jobs report, that was originally due to be published this Friday, will be postponed to when the latest government shutdown ends. The data’s been collected but the release of the report has been

delayed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has already hit setbacks and delays following the last government shutdown at the end of last year.

In the UK, London was the place to start a career. Now graduates can’t get a job (Daily Telegraph, Emma Taggart) highlights difficulties that graduates are facing in getting a job in the big smoke. Figures from the ONS showed that in the three months to November, London’s unemployment rate was 7.2%, the highest of any region in the UK! However, the unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year-olds in London was a staggering 18.6% in the three months to September 2025, which was up from 16.1% the same period a year earlier! Graduates are facing increased competition for fewer jobs and, according to the latest Institute of Student Employers’ stats, 140 applicants applied for every grad vacancy last year – up from 38 in 2003! Grads are also facing the prospect of AI reducing the number of available roles even further. * SO WHAT? * This is clearly a nightmare for those affected. However, I would say that it has never been easy to get a graduate role in London. Of course 140 applicants per role is somewhat different to 38 – but 38 applicants per role is still tricky. The best thing I can say is to concentrate on you and don’t worry about everyone else – easy to say, difficult to do. Also, I would say that you need to make sure that you REALLY identify your strengths and weaknesses because if you can do that properly, you are half way there to making sure you apply to the right roles. Whenever anyone says that they’ve applied to x-hundred jobs to no avail, I am inclined to think that they were either a) applying to the wrong jobs and/or b) just blasting everyone with the same bland applications.

UK house prices rose 1% in year to January after budget blip (The Times, Tom Howard) highlights what consumers have been doing in the property market as it cites the latest Nationwide report which shows that house prices rose by more than expected last month. Developers and estate agents all reported a slowing down of the housing market over autumn and winter ahead of the Budget so it’s still early days yet to say whether or not this is going to be a sustainable rebound.

SpaceX, xAI Tie Up, Forming $1.25 Trillion Company (Wall Street Journal, Micah Maidenberg, Meghan Bobrowsky and Berber Jin) highlights a huge deal that was confirmed yesterday. SpaceX was one of xAI’s first customers back in 2024! This tie-up had been expected and was all part of Musk’s plan to bring together rockets, satellites and AI under one roof.

Devon Energy to Buy Coterra for $21.5 Billion to Create Shale Giant (Wall Street Journal,

Elias Schisgall and Benoît Morenne) highlights an all-stock deal that will create one of America’s biggest oil and gas producers as the sector consolidates. The combined entity will be known as Devon Energy and become one of the biggest players in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. It will also be one of the world’s biggest shale producers. This deal is expected to close in Q2.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Disney slides as it warns of fall in visitor numbers to US theme parks (The Times, Emma Powell) shows that the “house of mouse” had a strong quarter going into December but its outlook was more cautious as it expected visitor numbers to its US theme parks to fall. Revenues for the quarter at its experiences division – which includes theme parks and cruise ships – accounted for almost 75% of group operating profit, so I guess that it’s reasonable to be a bit downbeat about the outlook if fewer people are travelling to the US.

Ikea assembles China strategy with closure of seven big stores (Financial Times, Thomas Hale and Richard Milne) shows that the Swedish furniture retailer has shut seven big stores in China as it pursues its strategy of having smaller stores in city centres and boosting its online presence. This is happening around the world. It said that it will, however, open 10 smaller stores in Beijing and Shenzhen over the next two years.

Meanwhile, China bans Tesla-style hidden door handles over safety fears (Daily Telegraph, Matthew Field) shows that China’s going to be bringing in a ban on car doorhandles that sit flush with the door after a string of fatalities involving suspected door failures. Some have been

alleging that passengers have been unable to escape from burning vehicles. China is the first country to ban this design and these designs rules will only apply to China.

Britain’s biggest Bitcoin company pledges to keep buying after losing $100m (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) shows that the Smarter Web Company reiterated its commitment to buying bitcoin after losing almost £73m in three months! By buying bitcoin, the web design company has become Britain’s biggest “bitcoin treasury” business. Will it be averaging down in the current market I wonder??

Then in Lammy’s raid on law firms puts thousands of jobs at risk (Daily Telegraph, Louis Goss) we see that the Justice Secretary is proposing a £100m tax raid on law firms to take a massive slice of the interest paid on client accounts. At the moment, law firms handle client money when homes are bought and sold or temporarily hold funds from a deceased person’s estate and they keep at least a proportion of the interest accrued. Lammy says this is “unearned income” and should be invested in the UK’s legal system. * SO WHAT? * If this came into force, property law firms are likely to take a massive hit as a lot of them earn a hefty profit from interest on client accounts. This will, in turn, hit jobs and even the very existence of the law firms themselves.

I must admit I’d never have thought of this, but actually it makes a lot of sense! I might just have to hunt out the waffle plates for my toastie maker to do this…