Thursday 11/12/25

Federal Reserve cuts rates to three-year low after fractious meeting (Financial Times, Claire Jones, Myles McCormick and Kate Duguid) shows that the Fed did, as the market expected, cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to their lowest level in three years. However, the meeting had the most dissent among rate-setters since 2019 as three of the twelve voting opposed the cut. Obviously, Trump’s stooge, Stephen Miran, voted once more for a 0.5 percentage point cut but was drowned out by the others. The interest rate range is now 3.5 – 3.75% and the cut was justified by the committee noting that “downside risks to employment rose in recent months”.

US to require social media disclosure for visa-waiver requests (Financial Times, Peter Wells and James Politi) highlights new proposals from the Trump administration whereby citizens of countries including the UK and France will have to disclose the past five years of their social media history in order to visit the US despite being covered by via waiver schemes. A notice published yesterday by the Department of Homeland Security highlighted this as a “mandatory data element”. * SO WHAT? * If enacted, the changes will affect citizens of the 42 countries who are currently allowed to stay in the US for up to 90 days without a visa as part of the pre-travel ESTA (Electronic System for Travel Authorization) screening. Surely this is going to kill tourism in America just as next year’s World Cup looms large? The US Travel Association has yet to give a reaction. This really is a shame and I would have thought that this will further encourage an “America-against-the-world” mindset.

Closer to home, EU proposes loosening rules on AI gigafactories in green rollback (The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan) shows that the EU is looking at granting datacentres, AI gigafactories

and affordable housing exemptions from mandatory environmental impact assessments as the European Commission continues to walk back its green rules. The idea is to cut red tape and improve labour mobility. EU members will themselves be allowed to decide whether projects need to be subject to these impact assessments but I guess that this proposal would give them more freedom. The environment and water commissioner maintained that “this is not a dilution of our environmental rules” but campaigners think otherwise and warn about the impact such rule dismantling will have on nature and human health. * SO WHAT? * This is a tricky one. I would like to think that there aren’t many people in this world who actively seek to harm the environment but I guess that the broader picture is that we’re in a world where the rules are changing and Europe is trying to play technological catch-up with China and the US. At this point, anything that delays progress is being sidelined – and that includes environmental considerations. I hope that advances in renewables and nuclear (especially fusion technology) will give us the power we need so that we can revisit environmental commitments properly.

Then in UK government suffers fresh setback to flagship workers’ rights legislation (Financial Times, Delphine Strauss and Jim Pickard) we see that the there has been pushback in the House of Lords against the massive upgrade of unions’ and workers’ rights in the proposed employment rights bill. The latest objection has been to the removal of the cap on compensation for unfair dismissal, which one Conservative peer said could help bosses of failing water companies get massive payouts. The drama drags on…

Google DeepMind to build materials science lab after signing deal with UK (Financial Times, Melissa Heikkilä) shows that Google DeepMind is going to build its first “automated science laboratory” in the UK in partnership with the UK government next year. The lab’s focus will be on using AI tools to develop new materials for superconductors. It will also work more closely with the UK’s AI Security Institute (AISI) which monitors the safety of AI systems.

In Oracle Shares Tumble as AI Spending Outruns Returns (Wall Street Journal, Sebastian Herrera) we see that the cloud computing company’s share price is getting hit by rising anxiety from investors about the massive amounts it is spending on building out datacentre infrastructure. Its latest quarterly revenues and operating income fell slightly short of analyst expectations while the company upped its spending forecasts. Oracle’s share price has fallen by over 30% since September. * SO WHAT? * I would suggest that Oracle is going to be just fine as long as the AI gravy train continues to power forward and founder Larry Ellison’s BFF Donald Trump is in office. The company has a massive backlog of deals going on from the likes of Meta, Nvidia and others – so it’s not like there’s no demand for what it does! The main concern continues to centre around how much the company’s going to have to sink into the build-out of its infrastructure, particularly because it’s using a lot of debt to finance it all.

As the whole Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) drama trundles on, For Trump, the Warner Megadeal Talks Are All About CNN (Wall Street Journal, Brian Schwartz and Alex Leary) suggests that the ultimate outcome of the WBD takeover could hinge on the fate of Trump’s much-hated news outlet CNN. The president told reporters yesterday that it is “imperative that CNN be sold” whoever ends up buying WBD – and he has been clear about this to the parties involved in deal negotiations. He has been gunning for CNN since his first term. Investors Bet That a Higher Bid for Warner Is Coming (Wall Street Journal, Ben Dummett and Lauren Thomas) reflects investor opinion that bids may go higher as WBD’s price climbed. Paramount has explicitly told WBD that its all-cash offer wasn’t its “best and final” offer. Meanwhile, America for sale as Gulf autocrats mount a Trumpist raid on Hollywood (Daily Telegraph, James Warrington and James Titcomb) homes in on how the WBD bid has managed to unite Gulf states – namely Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar – by offering a rare opportunity to boost their influence abroad. Money from the sovereign wealth funds of these states makes up almost 60% of the Paramount’s total equity funding. You do wonder whether anyone from Trump’s administration is going to raise objections as the realisation sinks in…

Restaurants scrap two-course Christmas menu offers to save cash (Daily Telegraph, Tom Haynes) shows that there’s a growing trend for restaurants to stop offering two-course Christmas meals this year as a way of enticing customers to pay more. About 20% of restaurants have quietly removed the option, according to industry analysts Meaningful Vision. Others, including Turtle Bay and Wahaca have removed free drinks offers. * SO WHAT? * This is unfortunate but understandable given that restaurants and pubs have been hit particularly hard by the rises to NICs in Labour’s 2024 Budget which have since been followed by the latest Budget pushing the minimum wage and business rates even higher. Meaningful Vision’s research also showed that the average cost of a meal in December had gone up by 4% to £36 per person since last year while two thirds of venues had raised prices by up to 9%. The tough times looks like they’ll continue as wholesale prices hit a record high in September after six months in a row of increases.

Staying with restaurants, Leon to shut 20 stores and cut jobs as losses hit £10m (Daily Telegraph, Tom Haynes) shows that Leon is looking to shut 20 of its 70 restaurants and cut jobs shortly after its co-founder John Vincent bought the company back in October. The chain brought in the administrators to oversee a Company Voluntary Agreement (CVA), a type of restructuring

that will enable the business to enact closures. Vincent blamed the situation on high taxes and the mismanagement of the former owners, the Issa brothers – the ones who also managed to run Asda into the ground. Let’s hope that Vincent manages to restore Leon’s fortunes.

Meanwhile, William Hill owner Evoke considers sale or breakup after budget tax rises (The Guardian, Rob Davies) shows that Evoke is looking at available options following a warning of a £135m hit from tax increases in last month’s Budget. * SO WHAT? * This comes just four years after the company, which was then known as 888, bought William Hill’s network of 1,400 bookmakers. The company’s valuation has dropped by over 90% since that. TBH, I don’t see who would want to buy this business. High street gambling is all but dead and the recent Budget is surely a final nail in the coffin. It seems to me that the death of the high street betting shop really kicked into gear with the demise of FOBTs (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals) starting in 2019 when the maximum stake dropped from £100 to £2 per spin. As far as I can see, the only meaningful driver for gambling companies over the last few years has been the opening up of sports betting in the US and the ongoing spread of online gambling. Surely any buyer is just going to sell off the company’s real estate…

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Trump has just accelerated Europe’s electric vehicle reckoning (Financial Times, June Yoon) is an interesting article that considers Trump’s recent bid to loosen US fuel economy rules, reversing a key Biden era policy. Although this was designed to help Americans the impact is likely to be felt more acutely in Europe. Trump says that the rollback will cut prices for buyers by $1,000 but actually what it’s doing is protecting the profitability of petrol trucks and SUVs whilst weakening the hand of EV makers. Trucks and SUVs account for 80% of new vehicle sales in the US! * SO WHAT? * These rule changes mean that US carmakers are going to feel much less urgency to channel their efforts into EV development. If Europe and America fall behind on the EV front, Chinese and Korean makers could potentially clear up. Although the EU is making moves to prevent getting flooded with cheap Chinese cars, South Korean makers will be protected by the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement signed in 2010. In any event, Asian makers are already making significant technological progress and so their manufacturing costs will continue to fall. Now that the US is pulling back on EVs, this means that EV makers will concentrate their efforts on markets that DO want them – meaning that the competition in Europe will intensify.

‘What to buy Dad for Christmas’: is retail ready for the AI shopping shift? (The Guardian, Sarah Butler) highlights a shift in consumer behaviour in that they are increasingly turning to AI

for gifting inspiration in their Christmas shopping. According to research by PwC, around 25% of British consumers are already using AI to find the right products and this trend is especially marked among younger people, according to research by KPMG. * SO WHAT? * All of this means that retailers are having to rethink paying search engines to promote their listings and look at how they can appeal to AI bots to get recommended. Everyone is still learning at the moment, and shifts in how companies present themselves will take time. 

Millennials cut back internet use amid mental health concerns (Daily Telegraph, James Titcomb) cites the latest report from Ofcom’s Online Nation report which shows that Millennials (those aged between 35 and 44) are spending less time online, something that’s being interpreted as being a cause for concern about the internet’s impact on mental health. This is the first time Ofcom’s seen a decrease among any age group in online habits outside the post-pandemic period when internet use fell sharply when lockdowns ended. Overall, though, time spent on YouTube went up while time spent on X fell. * SO WHAT? * I’m a bit sceptical about whether this really shows anything. I would suggest that this age group is perhaps spending a bit less time on the internet because I’d argue that this is the age when people tend to have kids. So instead of playing COD with friends or going down Wikipedia rabbit-holes, this demographic is seeing its time increasingly taken up with baby/kid stuff.

When you see things like this, you do wonder whether people have too much time on their hands. Still, I’m glad they do because this is a strangely compelling race – you just don’t know which one’s going to win right until the end!