Monday 16/06/25

Israel-Iran latest: Four die in missile strikes on Israel as conflict enters fourth day (Financial Times, George Russell) highlights the latest on the conflict as both sides launched attacks while Israel is achieving its goals in Iran — so far (Financial Times, John Sawers) suggests that the Israel’s objectives to hobble Iran’s nuclear programme and cripple oil infrastructure are succeeding at the moment, with the ultimate aim being to topple the current regime. The fallout from Israel’s strikes on Iranian energy sites (Financial Times, Malcolm Moore) takes a look at what was hit (two gas processing facilities), what the impact is so far (it’s causing gas and fuel shortages) and the global implications (increasing concerns about vulnerability of global energy infrastructure). In response, the Iranians could attack Israel’s energy infrastructure and/or close the Strait of Hormuz – a vital trade artery that carries a third of the world’s seaborne oil. The nuclear mountain that haunts Israel (Financial Times, John Paul Rathbone and Charles Clover) highlights a longer-term target (the Fordow nuclear enrichment plant buried 500m beneath a mountain) although Israel managed to destroy Iran’s bigger above-ground enrichment plant at Natanz on Friday and Why Saudi Arabia raised oil output before Israel’s attack on Iran (Financial Times, Tom Wilson and Jamie Smyth) suggests that the recent decision by Opec+ to increase oil production was in response to the White House asking the Saudis to do so in order to help them with three big problems – Iran, Russia and inflation. * SO WHAT? * Ultimately, it looks like these attacks will precipitate a shifting of the geopolitical landscape in the region as the US, China and Russia do not look like they are going to get involved for varying reasons. Without them, the region will be left to its own devices and it’s likely that the Gulf states will lead the way here.

Elsewhere, US sends a shot across the bows of its allies over submarine deal (Financial Times, Demetri Sevastopulo and Nic Fildes) harks back to news last week about the Pentagon reviewing the AUKUS agreement and suggests that this is actually about stinging Australia into spending more on defence from the current 2% of GDP to 3.5%. * SO WHAT? * The AUKUS pact itself is designed to improve capabilities in the Pacific against China and would allow Australia and the

UK to produce a type of submarine called the SSN-Aukus using top secret US technology. The Brits and Aussies are playing down any concerns about this review, but it does send out some uncomfortable signals.

Meanwhile, Remittance crackdown is a tax on the poor (Financial Times, the editorial board) highlights Trump’s proposed increase in the tax on the money that migrants send home – and this includes visa holders and permanent residents. At the moment, the average fee is 6.4% but the president wants to jack this up to almost 10%, which would make it the most expensive G7 country from which to transfer money. * SO WHAT? * Mexico’s president Sheinbaum said that this was a tax on the poor. At the moment, Mexico gets remittances worth about 4% of GDP but other countries in Central America – including Nicaragua, Guatemala and Honduras – are likely to suffer far more because remittances there can make up to about 25% of GDP. Clearly this is yet another move to push immigrants out of the US.

In Mark Carney’s trial by G7 summit as ‘Godzilla’ comes to Canada (Financial Times, Ilya Gridnedd and James Politi) we see that Canada’s new PM will be at the centre of attention at this week’s G7 summit in the Rocky Mountain resort of Kananaskis with over a dozen leaders due to attend. This should be a humdinger given Trump’s actions in office so far and the current geopolitical backdrop. Attendees will no doubt also be eager to know how Carney is going to handle his noisy neighbour – who will be in attendance.

Back home, Rachel Reeves to set out 10-year UK infrastructure plan (Financial Times, George Parker and Gill Plimmer) shows that the chancellor is going to lay out a £725bn decade-long infrastructure plan for Britain. Reeves is expected to prioritise projects that can show quick wins. This comes on the heels of last week’s spending review. It sounds good in theory, but as always there will be rumblings about how it’s all going to be financed…

In consumer trends, American travel demand declines as US consumers cut costs (Financial Times, Stephanie Stacey) cites the latest data from the Transport Security Administration which shows that Americans are reining in holiday plans and delaying bookings until the last minute, which some are interpreting as a sign that growth could be slowing down in America. Prices for airline tickets and hotels have also fallen between April and May and operators have been saying that it’s been getting more difficult to fill rooms. * SO WHAT? * This increasing reticence has been seen across all income levels and is exacerbating the situation for the US tourism industry that’s already struggling with sudden drops in visitor numbers from Canada and Europe.

In the UK, Asking prices for homes show unusual summer fall (The Times, Jack Barnett) shows that home sellers have been cutting asking prices as buyers face their broadest choice of properties in a decade, according to research from Rightmove. This is notable because prices tend to go up at this time of year. On less serious things, Sober karaoke on the rise as Gen Z ditch booze (Daily Telegraph, Daniel Woolfson) highlights interesting trends in karaoke (!) as the CEO of Lucky Voice said that younger people are starting karaoke earlier in the evening and leaving earlier – but they’re also drinking less (or no) alcohol versus previous generations who tend to need large doses of loudmouth soup before they grab a mic. In a survey by Kantar last year, 59% of Gen Z said that they hadn’t drunk any alcohol in the last 12 months – something that has caused alcoholic beverage makers like Diageo a real headache.

Meanwhile, Wall Street juniors should enjoy their moment in the sun (Financial Times, Lex) debates whether AI is going to be the scourge of juniors in finance or whether it’s going to mean that they’ll get exposed to more interesting work earlier on in their careers. It suggests that fewer

juniors will be needed – and that means that the odds of rising to the top improve. * SO WHAT? * I don’t believe that. Working in investment banking and/or private equity etc. is very intense and it’s not for everyone. Some can handle it for a short while and burn out while others are able to go the distance if they can overcome all the political and competitive battles. I think having fewer people going in at the junior level will mean that fewer will end up at the top end.

In corporate trends, ‘Stay below the radar’: corporate America goes quiet after Trump’s return (The Guardian, Callum Jones) highlights the behaviour of a lot of American companies – that they have toed the presidential line because they just don’t know what’s going to happen with this administration, so it’s better to drink the Kool Aid, sit at the back and say nothing. DEI has clearly been one of the issues that has loomed large with Trump’s rein so far and  ‘Magic circle’ ditches Pride logos as Trump attacks DEI (Daily Telegraph, Louis Goss) shows another example of where companies have decided to bend the knee rather than create waves. Ashurst, Baker McKenzie, DLA Piper, Freshfields and Linklaters have all ditched Pride logos on their LinkedIn and X pages this year. Presumably, the reason why Slaughter & May has stuck with it is because its US business is a lot smaller than all of its magic circle rivals.

Then in British manufacturers turn their backs on US as export market (The Times, Robert Lea) we see that British manufacturers are now looking at export destinations outside America given the effect of triple T – Trump Tariff Turmoil – on their business. The US has now fallen out of the top three global regions that UK manufacturers expect to do business with according to a survey of the members of Make UK. Things certainly are looking tricky for UK manufacturers at the moment.

In a quick scoot around some of today’s other interesting stories, Renault chief executive Luca de Meo steps down to lead Kering (Financial Times, Adrienne Klasa, Ian Johnston and Kana Inagaki) shows that Luca de Meo is going to leave Renault – after a five year effort to turn its fortunes around have borne fruit – and join the troubled Kering to turn around its flagging fortunes. Chairman Francoise-Henri Pinault, who has been chair and CEO for two decades, wants to split the two roles and it’s not clear as to whether he’ll stay on as chair. * SO WHAT? * Kering’s share price has cratered by a whopping 70% over the last three years and a turnaround here needs drastic action. They will be putting a lot of hope in this guy being the man to successfully execute that.

Then in Carmakers battle to find supplies of rare earths as China tightens its grip (Financial Times, Camilla Hodgson, Kana Inagaki and Christian Davies) we see that talks between European carmakers and suppliers of magnets are rare earths are intensifying as shortages due to Chinese export restrictions manifest themselves. * SO WHAT? * One German magnet maker said that some car production would be suspended by mid-July unless other sources are found. The shortage of magnets is becoming a problem in the US as well but it seems that Hyundai is sorted as it has inventory levels that will last until at least the end of the year.

Nintendo switches up the rules of console gaming (Financial Times, Lex) is an interesting article that highlights the popularity of the Switch 2, which shows that consoles can still be popular despite the rise of mobile, cloud and high-performance PC gaming. Nintendo wants to sell 15m units of its new console by March next year – but it’s already sold over 3.5m units in its first four days of trading! Funnily enough, there are already shortages. Apparently, Sony is also thought to be cooking up a new portable PlayStation device.

On the high street, TM Lewin returns to the high street as workers go back to offices (The Times, Isabella Fish) shows that TM Lewin, after falling into administration in 2022 for the second time in less than two years, is now looking to open more shops as workers returning to offices need more suits and shirts. It’s targeting openings in London, Manchester and Edinburgh. Prior to the pandemic it had 150 physical shops but had to become online-only since June 2020.

Then in Retail giants ‘face £600m bill’ as new business rates bite (The Times, Isabella Fish) we see that retailers in London’s West End are bracing themselves for a massive increase in business rates when they take effect next April. The new rates will be easier on smaller retail, hospitality and leisure properties but that will be funded by increasing costs to owners of larger commercial properties.

I’m a bit of a sucker for these types of videos as I find them mesmerising! People are amazing, aren’t they?!